Even on Christmas night, Chatham House in London's James Square is still lit up. At this time, China, Japan, the DPRK, and the Soviet Union had officially announced that the four countries would sign an anti-aggression and mutual assistance treaty in order to cope with various crises in the complex international situation and increase mutual trust between the countries. Although it was only a treaty in Asia, it had an incalculable impact on the world situation as a whole, and for this reason, the Foreign Secretary, Sir Eden, requested an assessment from the Royal Institute of International Affairs.

Since its inception in 1920, the Royal Council on International Affairs has had a wide range of members in the political, business and academic worlds, and it was not easy to gather a large number of members in a short period of time, but the situation was urgent, and the de facto leader of the Milner Group, the founding secretary of the Society, Lane Nell Curtis, informed the Society's core members in London to come.

"Gentlemen, the situation is ......" After the members arrived, the blond-haired Curtis began to report the situation, but thinking of the association's previous judgment on China's international policy, he thought of Arnold Joseph Toynbee, the director of the research department, but he was not here. Where's Arnold? Curtis looked at Professor De Coupland, another historian in the research department,

"If nothing else, he should be in Germany at this time." "German Chancellor Goering wants to award him a Chancellor's Medal, and of course, maybe he's on his way back." ”

As the Royal Society of International Affairs, which had a profound influence on British national policy, it was generally believed that Germany had gotten rid of the 'Asiatic' **** after the last war and returned to Western civilization, and at the same time, based on France's gradual strong position in European affairs, the association believed that Germany should be supported so that it could balance France. For this reason, the membership of the Royal Society of International Affairs is generally welcomed by the government of Goering in Germany. It was in this context that Toynbee was received by Goering.

Hearing that Toynby, who had accurately predicted ******** policy, was not there, Curtis was a little disappointed. Philip Cole, who saw him speechless, asked, "Sir, is there any more definite news?" I hope this will help me for the rest of my term. ”

In order to strengthen Anglo-American unity. Philip Cole has already been designated as the next ambassador to the United States, and he will probably be in Washington next year, or the year after that, at the latest, so he asked.

"All we can know at the moment is ......," Curtis recalled, recalling the intelligence transferred from MI6. Yang Jingcheng visited the Soviet Union, and he had a great conversation with Stalin in the Kremlin, and it is said that the two talked alone for more than three hours, and no one knew what they said. But as a result, Stalin was persuaded by him to be willing to sign a so-called anti-aggression mutual assistance pact with the East Asian Alliance......"

"So, how long is the duration of the treaty? What exactly does it include? Henry Vincent Halderson, editor of The Sunday Times, asked. Maybe that's not a bad thing, at least the Chinese have determined that they are going to start a war in the Pacific, so they signed such a mutual assistance treaty with the Bolsheviks. ”

"We cannot know the duration and content of the treaty until it is published, and even if it is obtained by secret means, it should be several months later, if the contracting parties keep it secret." Curtis Road. "Gentlemen, what we are going to discuss now is what effect this will have on Britain? Does our colonies in Asia mean that they are no longer safe? ”

"Sir, if Arnold's judgment is followed," spoke Professor de Coupland, who was the same school as Toynbee. "I think this is just a response from the Chinese, the US fleet is expanding after the failure of the naval disarmament conference, and the Chinese and Japanese sides have only made the decision to build four super battleships." This is less than a third of the amount of the second Vincennes Act approved by the US Congress, and they must stabilize their rear, that is, Soviet Russia. ”

"Stabilizing the rear can also be explained for a better attack. Mr. Professor. Editor-in-chief Hudson laughed. He likes sensational news, and if he interprets the signing of the anti-aggression and mutual assistance treaty between China, Japan, and North Korea and Red Russia as self-preservation. This is clearly not to the reader's taste. As everyone knows: the Chinese are savage, evil infidels, who spy on everything in the civilized world. Painstakingly arming themselves with the technology of the civilized world in order to launch a surprise attack and seize everything the West now has.

"If for the sake of attacking, then why don't the Chinese fight Russia with Japan, Poland, Germany? Do not forget that the Baku oil fields are only separated by a sea from Chinese territory, and the last Sino-Russian war also showed that the combat effectiveness of the Chinese army was significantly higher than that of the Bolshevik Red Army. They could have taken Astrakhan at the mouth of the Volga River, as they had done in the last war, and Baku was Russia's only oil field, and once the capture of Astrakhan cut off the supply of crude oil, the entire Bolshevik war machine would cease.

Gentlemen, if the last war was decided by steel and coal, then the next war is between steel and oil. China, Japan, Germany and Poland flanked Russia, and the probability of victory was greater than 80 percent. And if they go south to occupy the colonies, they will be resisted by the whole civilized world, and I don't think Yang will be so stupid. "It was John Davy who spoke, and few people knew his exact background, except Curtis.

"So our colonies in Asia are safe? John. Curtis asked, looking at him.

"If we are neutral, of course it is safe. The Chinese have not yet gone crazy enough to declare war on two world powers. "John David." But we must be careful: if the East Asian alliance does go to war with the United States, they must not win. In the event of victory, our Li colonies in Asia will definitely be lost completely, and Asia will become Chinese and Japanese Asia. ”

"I couldn't agree more." The future ambassador to the United States, Cole, nodded. "The best thing for Britain is for both of them to lose, and the Pacific is calm again, and if there is one side to win, it can only be the United States."

The politicians were debating it, and the editor-in-chief, Hudson, wrote it all down, believing that tomorrow's newspaper would be sensational. Curtis was unimpressed by his actions, and according to Chatham's Rules, none of the views he quoted could be credited with a spokesperson for the views.

"So, what should we do?" Curtis looked at the people, and every time he asked this sentence, he felt a feeling that it was only a very small number of people who decided the fate of the world. Only they can shape the course of world history.

"The East Asian alliance must be contained!" John Davy said with great firmness. "The responsibility we give China is to defend the West's interests in Asia, not to destroy them. Yang Jingcheng and successive Chinese governments do abide by international treaties, but the Nanyang region, including Burma. Historically, it was a protectorate of China. The strength of the East Asian alliance means that China will eventually recapture these places, and possibly all of India and the oil-rich Middle East. These are the territories of Asia, and China and Japan are the leaders of Asia from then on.

This is not far off, with conservative estimates of a full-blown war of independence in Asia twenty years from now, and the most optimistic estimates suggesting that in thirty years we will lose all of Asia's colonial and economic interests. Fortunately, the United States does not want to see a strong alliance rise on the west coast of the Pacific, although it has not yet come out of the Great Depression, but the reason why it has not come out of the Great Depression is that many Americans believe that it is because of competition from Chinese products.

Gentlemen, just as we prop up Germany to balance France, we must remind the United States. He saw the gravity of the problem -- the Chinese workers were robbing the Americans of their bread, the Chinese peasants were the main culprits for the bankruptcy of countless American farms, the fact that China's foreign trade surpluses over the years had enabled him to have enough money to build his own industry without borrowing from European or American foreign debt, and that the growing industry had allowed him to build an ocean-going navy that was not inferior to that of Japan, and that the Pacific Ocean had lost its former calm.

France needs balance, China needs containment; Europe needs peace, Asia needs war. That's what we should be doing for His Majesty's government, not for them to keep Mrs. Simpson on all day. ”

Hearing that David mentioned Mrs. Simpson, everyone in the audience shook their heads after a wry smile. The king would rather give up the throne in order to marry an American woman in second marriage. This was a major event that shocked the British government and the public. Last month, the king had already announced his abdication, and the throne would be inherited by his younger brother.

"So...... How about this? Hudson, as editor-in-chief, held up a blank piece of paper he had written, with three uppercase words and three huge exclamation marks: War.is.coming!!" content. I would like to explain that the ultimate purpose of the anti-aggression and mutual assistance treaty signed between China and Japan and Russia is to launch a war to seize colonies in the Pacific or the South Seas. French Annam, the American Philippines, and the British colonies in the region were all captured by the Chinese and Japanese armies, supplying the rubber and tin needed by the world. There are also the prolific East India oil fields, and the ...... of millions of Chinese and Japanese immigrants"

The imagination of the literati is always boundless. However, it is not unreasonable for Hudson to interpret the anti-aggression and mutual assistance treaty signed between China and Japan and Soviet Russia, after all, what he said is the truth. The only mistake is to confuse defense with offense, but before the war, who knows if it's defense or offense?

"It's a really good idea." Philip Cole smiled and nodded, "But this is for the public, and I wonder how Britain should behave in this war?" Whether to join the United States, or to maintain a certain neutrality. ”

"A certain amount of neutrality, of course." John David said, "We don't need to promise anything to the United States, and if China and Japan really build only four super-battleships, the victorious side will not be them, but the United States." What we need to do is to provide some convenience to the United States, such as ensuring the supply of American rubber and tin in the ...... in the war, and these will be enough. ”

"Is that so?" Cole looked at Curtis, who was presiding over the meeting, and he knew that there were some people behind Curtis.

"I couldn't agree more." Curtis laughed, "If, as Arnold predicted, the Chinese would not attack our colony, we certainly do not need to intervene in the war and maintain a certain degree of neutrality, as we did more than thirty years ago." ”

"Sir, I must remind you that China and Japan are by no means Spain." Hearing Curtis talk about the Spanish-American War more than 30 years ago, Professor de Coupland once again expressed the department's view, "The United States may not be able to achieve complete victory. ”

"Then the professor thinks we should join the American side?" Curtis asked.

"I didn't say that." Professor De Kuplan shook his head, "I'm just reminding you that China and Japan are not Spain, nor are they Qing Dynasty. The war is likely to last for years, if not forever. Do not forget that China is the mainland, and the American army cannot penetrate deep into the mainland to destroy the Chinese army......"

Curtis, who was chairing the meeting, frowned slightly—this was the menstrual topic of the association, that is, whether China and Japan would surrender. The research department unanimously agreed that in Eastern cultures. Surrender is a disgrace, therefore. Even if the Chinese and Japanese navies were wiped out by the US Navy, they would not surrender. Unless the U.S. army completely occupies the entire country. But this is not possible, because a country with a territory of 5.8 million square miles (fifteen million square kilometers) and a population of more than 600 million will have to send all the armies of the West to conquer it completely, but the cost of such conquest will be astronomical.

The ******** ministry, represented by John David, believed that it was possible to break the resistance of a defeated government by propping up a pro-Western local regime as it had ruled India. This is justified -- when the coalition forces captured Beijing in 1900, the provinces in the Yangtze River valley declared their independence, and some bigwigs established the Chinese National Assembly in Shanghai and elected Li Hongzhang, the former minister of Beiyang, as president.

John David's view is a combination of empiricism and realism, and he believes that both Westerners and Easterners are perceived. will make self-interested judgments based on practical interests, so surrender is a realistic and natural choice; Toynbee of the Research Department emphasizes the influence of culture and history on the nation, which is what distinguishes the East from the West. If in 1900 there was an opportunity for Western countries to conquer China, now there is certainly no such opportunity.

At this time, China admired not the West but their own past, and they regarded Western civilization as a declining civilization rather than a progressive, scientific civilization as before. Although this shift in cultural orientation was promoted by Yang Jingcheng and successive Chinese governments, more importantly, the last tragic European war made the East generally disillusioned with Western civilization, which saw Western progress as murderous progress, Western science as murderous science, and nothing more.

Culturally. China's domestic politics were also more stable than at any time during the Qing Dynasty, and although there were occasional violent fights in the Diet, the vast majority of the population was satisfied with the current state of affairs, somewhat similar to the Meiji period in Japan. If the war is waged in the event that China is clearly on the defensive. The attackers will be met with a concerted resistance of more than 600 million people across the country......

Curtis thought of having to argue once a month, and quickly interrupted De Kuplan's speech, "Professor. We are now discussing what strategy Britain should adopt, not whether the United States can conquer China. ”

"Then I have nothing to say." Professor De Kuplan spread his hands regretfully. He and Toynbee had always believed that a war between China and the United States should not be provoked, but ironically, their knowledge was constantly used by Curtis to provoke conflict. The only consolation was that he did it for the benefit of Britain. Otherwise, he and Toynbee would have no shame in the Chinese who warmly received their visit.

The lights at Chatham Tower went out in the middle of the night, and the gentlemen's painstaking efforts were reflected on President Roosevelt's desk the next day: from the New York Times to the Christian Science Monitor, to the New York Herald Tribune, and finally to the Washington Times, the headline of every newspaper was war or imminent war.

"Mr. President, it's not good news." Secretary Hopkins smiled at the wheelchair-bound First Lady Eleanor before handing them to Roosevelt — the president was a sociable man who read six or seven newspapers a day, while the White House received tens of thousands of letters a week.

"Oh! Oh, God. Not good news, indeed. Seeing that the newspaper headlines were full of 'War', Roosevelt couldn't help but push his nose glasses and sighed half-truthfully. In fact, he received the news last night that the Soviet Union and China, Japan and North Korea would sign a treaty, which did not surprise him. His only displeasure was that the Soviets had just received a $200 million loan and were allowed to purchase some advanced multi-tool and multi-axis machine tools. "It seems that only God's people can be trusted." He sighed.

"Mr. President, the ministers are here." Hopkins reported that this was ordered by Roosevelt after receiving the news that China, Japan, and North Korea were going to sign a treaty with the Soviet Union last night.

"Good." Roosevelt whispered, and the wheelchair was pushed by his wife to the Oval Office.

"Gentlemen, China and Japan are preparing to wage war against us......" Roosevelt preemptively patted the newspaper on his lap, glanced over the faces of the officers in attendance, and deliberately paused on the face of Secretary of War Woodlin, who continued: "I doubt that our military can protect the personal safety of American citizens and the legitimate interests of the United States in Asia." ”

As time passed, the trend became clearer, and the Minister of War, Harry Woodlin, was a complete isolationist, and he was afraid of engaging the Chinese and Japanese armies. And under his leadership, the Army General Staff also came up with a plan to completely abandon the Philippines. This is unacceptable at the moment.

"Mr. President, maybe it's just Chinese just want to stabilize relations with the Russians......" Woodlin said. He knew he was becoming less and less likable to the president. Most likely, the next cabinet will no longer have its place.

"Really?" Roosevelt looked at Woodlin, who looked embarrassed, "If that's the case, then we'll have to thank God." After he finished speaking, he turned his head to look at the Secretary of the Navy, Swanson: "I want to know what countermeasures you have against the super battleships of China and Japan?" Sink them with a plane? ”

China and Japan actually wanted to build battleships of more than 60,000 tons, and the people in the Admiralty were all shocked when they heard this news, especially the caliber of the main guns actually exceeded 450mm. But fortunately, the Navy also has a 60,000-ton battleship plan, but the caliber of the main gun is only 406mm for the time being.

"Mr. President, this is our strategy, Montana-class battleships." Secretary of the Navy Swanson took out a sketch of the battleship and handed it to Roosevelt. "Just because the Panama Canal is too narrow. Battleships could only make a detour from Cape Horn in South America. ”

"Mr. Minister, can't you sink a battleship with an airplane?" Roosevelt glanced at the sketches and asked questions of concern that were constantly debated within the Navy.

"Mr. President, it seems impossible at the moment." Swanson said that he knew that the president was an aircraft carrier faction, so he calmly cited the example: "In the naval battles that took place in East Africa for months, Chinese and Japanese carrier-based aircraft were helpless against Italian warships, and China was sunk by the Italian Navy with a large aircraft carrier." This shows that only battleships can be dealt with. The aircraft is indeed a weapon with great potential, but it will take a lot of time for it to completely replace the battleship. ”

"How many Montana-class ships are you going to build?" Hearing that the airplane was not feasible, Roosevelt had to re-examine the design sketches.

"If you want to form an overwhelming advantage. This requires six ships. Swanson said.

"But there are already six Iowa class ships." Roosevelt said.

"Mr. President, the Chinese and Japanese super battleships are equipped with nine 460mm caliber main guns, and the range of shells is more than forty kilometers." Swanson recites data that he never dreams of forgetting. It's stressful. "And our main guns are only 406mm caliber, and each ship has only eight main guns......"

"Okay." In Swanson's chatter. Roosevelt eventually compromised. But then he asked, "I remember that the Chinese have always admired aircraft carriers." But why build four Tianjin-class battleships with Japan this time? ”

"Mr. President, I think this is influenced by the naval battle in the Gulf of Aden. It is said that the Chinese National Assembly questioned the personnel concerned after the fighting, and several admirals of the Navy were dismissed as a result. Swanson seemed to gloat as he said the news from the intelligence services. This engagement proved that naval warfare is not advisable to rely solely on the protection of vulnerable aircraft carriers, and I really can't figure out why the Chinese even have to cancel the 203mm secondary guns from aircraft carriers. ”

Swanson was glad that Lexington and Saratoga still had the 203 guns, while Roosevelt's mind drifted away again, and he looked at the people sitting there: "Gentlemen, I feel more and more that giving up on the Philippines was a wrong decision. After giving up the Philippines, we can only stick to Hawaii or even San Diego, while keeping the Philippines we can ......"

Abandoning the Philippines is the Army's insistence for more than 30 years, and the Navy, although unwilling, can only acquiesce; After Congress approved 10 years of Philippine independence, the Army General Staff recommended that the President gradually withdraw all Philippine troops by 1946. Unexpectedly, the president wanted to overturn the 'consensus' of more than 30 years today, and Woodlin immediately interrupted: "Mr. President, I have to remind you: if there is a war, we cannot hold the ...... of the Philippines."

"No, Mr. Secretary, the Philippine Federation cannot lose the protection of the United States for a single day without independence." Roosevelt similarly interrupted Woodlin's words, "We want the staff to be back in the ...... making plans"

"Mr. President, this is impossible." Once again, Woodlin insisted on his view, "The Philippines is too far away from us, and every additional soldier we send is equivalent to an additional prisoner, and the most correct strategy is to abandon the Philippines and then take it back." ”

"Maybe you should listen to what Douglas has to say." Roosevelt laughed and pulled out a plan from the Philippines. (To be continued.) )