232.1 billion public debt plan

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This number directly made Murong Han and Cai Gongshi's jaws drop ().

What is the concept of 100 million?

Murong Han knew best, because Yang Qiu liked to use the Western calendar, so the southwest fiscal year was calculated according to the Western calendar, and this habit was also brought to Nanjing by Zhang Wenjing.

Judging from the current fiscal revenues of the eight southwestern provinces from January to March, Hubei and Sichuan are expected to reach an unprecedented 40 million yuan each this year, and Hunan is expected to reach about 20 million yuan. Among them, the fastest growth is the salt tax, industry and commerce and minerals, of which the salt tax in Sichuan alone was as high as 8 million in the first three months, and the industry and commerce and minerals have also grown rapidly because of the heat in Hubei, Daye, Chongqing Qijiang and Xiangtan.

After Yang Qiu took charge of the southwest, he ordered Shen Shukai and the National Guard to comb through the messy traditional industries such as tea, raw silk, porcelain and tung oil in the territory and borrow it

The action suppressed a number of asset compradors who colluded with foreign businessmen at low prices, and adopted the method of government purchasing at a guaranteed price and signing bulk procurement contracts with foreign businessmen to protect the interests of peasants.

Although the finances of the three southwestern provinces have just been merged at the beginning of the month, the survey data of the first three months shows that Yunnan and Guangxi also have potential, and each province is expected to receive about 6 million yuan this year (). Guizhou is slightly worse, but the problem is that at the beginning of the year tobacco and sugarcane seeds have been sown, due to the promotion of planting area, in which tobacco is a controlled commodity with heavy taxes, several cigarette factories are under construction, so at the end of the year Guizhou is very willing to usher in a big outbreak, the Ministry of Finance is expected to be very likely to reach the data of Yunnan and Guizhou provinces.

As for Xikang, which is currently transitioning to animal husbandry and horse breeding, but these are slow to bear fruit, Tibet is basically not guaranteed, so the Ministry of Finance predicts that the two provinces can earn a maximum of 2 million yuan, but it doesn't matter, if the six provinces can meet expectations, then the total fiscal revenue of the eight southwestern provinces this year can exceed 120 million yuan, and the new tax system and economic stimulus policies have begun to show results.

Although it can exceed 100 million, it is also the strength of the eight provinces, and in the annual budget, the expenditure of the eight provinces this year is as high as 140 million yuan in education, railways, state-owned factory construction and administrative expenses, etc., and there will still be a large deficit.

So! As soon as Xu Xiujun opened his mouth, it was a figure of one or two hundred million, which was so terrifying that Cai Gongshi quietly pulled the corner of his clothes and reminded him not to talk big.

Only Yang Qiu guessed something and asked, "Public debt?" ”

"Yes."

Xu Xiujun's answer was not surprising, but the number was much higher than Yang Qiu expected. After the Xinhai Revolution, there were many public bonds issued indiscriminately by various provinces in China, totaling more than 50 million, but the word southwest has not been issued since the beginning, not because they do not know the public bonds, but because the southwest itself is not poor, and there is no need for transactions and loans with Germany for the time being, after all, so much money is withdrawn from the market at once, which is very likely to lead to the decline of the industrial and commercial investment boom induced by the government.

Therefore, he has so far hesitated to issue public bonds to collect money from the market.

But Xu Xiujun didn't think so, and said: "After returning from the UK, Xiujun has studied the domestic economy in detail, and the biggest drawback is the serious backlog of capital, which is what the folk call dead money. This situation is particularly prominent in the north and Jiangsu and Zhejiang, because of the lack of industry and suitable investment projects, landlords and gentry often choose to buy land after making money, or simply pile the silver in the cellar to mold, I have seen a lot of landlords and gentry with millions of family assets but reluctant to take out the investment, I calculate that the proportion of dead money is very high in the country, the total stock is about 10-1.5 billion taels of silver ().

This is due to the fact that the country has been in turmoil for more than a decade, and they have kept money to defend themselves, and secondly, there is a lack of investment projects in the country, especially the landlords who have guaranteed income during droughts and floods are simply unwilling to invest in risky industrial and commercial industries. Third, various countries have issued currency in China indiscriminately, especially Japan, which has issued tens of millions of yen through the Zhengjin Bank to circulate in China, and has withdrawn gold and silver through currency to earn huge price differences.

So my idea is to use the main line of the Southwest Railway as collateral to raise public bonds from China, and accelerate the return of these dead money with a high annual interest rate of 5 cents, which is expected to be about 50 million yuan alone. In addition, it will issue government bonds and sell them to the market publicly, and if you can contact the United States and Germany, you can even go directly to Europe for issuance. Of course, the European market is relatively mature, and investors need a stable and safe market, so you need to wait for you to win at least a decisive battle and let them see that you can definitely unify China. ”

"Five cents a year!" After Xu Xiujun finished speaking, Cai Gongshi immediately shook his head: "This interest rate is too high, the current annual interest rate of loans to China is only about 7 cents, if the public debt exceeds 100 million, the annual interest payment alone will be 5 million, which is equivalent to a year's tax payment in Jiangxi." ”

Xu Xiujun sighed: "Brother Tiger is right, normally three points per year is already very good, but now that there is no high interest in the chaos, who wants to take the cash?" According to my calculations, the annual interest rate of five cents can only return tens of millions at most, but if the annual interest rate is increased to seven cents, then at least 100 million public bonds can be raised. ”

Yang Qiu understood why Xu Xiujun said that he had to make up his mind, if someone else would definitely refuse to issue such a high-interest public bond, because once the current situation continues to be unstable, or the future economic growth rate is lower than the rate of interest payment, then the national treasury will be burdened with a huge and incomparably burden, which is very likely to lead to financial bankruptcy and violent financial turmoil, and eventually lead to the collapse of the entire monetary system, just like the legal tender of the Republic of China in the parallel world.

However, he is not an ordinary person, and the super-war that will sweep the world will be staged in more than a year, and the frenzied export of raw materials alone is sure to make a profit of at least hundreds of millions of dollars, and if the industrial companies can improve the quality and production a little more, it is not impossible to get the few weapons they have delivered to export weapons to Europe.

In the parallel world, Japan was able to reverse its pre-war debt of 1.7 billion yen and become a capital exporter because of its large arms fortune in World War I, and because it took advantage of the contraction of Britain and France to exploit China at extremely low prices, and continuously resold raw materials to Europe to earn the difference. Then again, even the Beiyang government at that time created a miracle of 13% annual economic growth during the war, so why can't it itself? As long as the reunification is completed and the side is not so quick to declare which side to join, there is definitely hope to share part of the wealth of the war.

But he still didn't make up his mind immediately, and there is another important factor in this, and that is the uncertain Japan!

Japan is absolutely unwilling to see the reunification of China, a unified and tough China means that the purchase price of Japanese raw materials will be doubled, so as long as Cai Yi advances through Xuzhou to Shandong, Japan is very capable of responding, and this he thought of before the Northern Expedition.

At present, there is very little possibility for China and Japan to fight a national war, after all, Japan is still burdened with a foreign debt of 1.7 billion, and there is also the pressure of foreign debts at home, but after all, the total economic volume is large and the foundation is sufficient, which is not comparable to Japan, and if a full-scale war is declared at this time, Japan will not be able to guarantee victory except for the superiority of the navy, and there will even be the possibility of losing South Manchuria and Korea.

In addition, although Britain and France and other countries are limited by Europe, they never want to see Japan's expansion too much at this time, especially the United States is not willing to expand Japan, not to mention Russia, once Japan invades China in an all-out way, Nicholas II's temperament will definitely greatly draw European forces to the Far East to take advantage of the fire, This is something that Britain and France absolutely do not want to see.

The possibility of a large-scale war is unlikely, but regional conflicts are certainly unavoidable, just how to deal with Qingdao, which caused the war, will have a headache to death, Germany will not take the initiative to withdraw, Japan will certainly not let go of this good opportunity with British support, the invasion of Shandong and Northeast China is very likely, if the war cannot be resolved quickly, then it will inevitably bring great pressure to the finances, even if the war money is earned, it will be consumed by the war and unable to repay the public debt.

Is the risk worth taking?

On the one hand, there is an urgent need for construction funds, and on the other hand, after the issuance of public bonds, once the scale of the war expands, and other factors, it will continue to be unstable. No wonder Xu Xiujun said that he needed to be determined, he couldn't see Europe, but the country and the Far East were very clear ().

Yang Qiu thought about it and said: "Zihong, what do you think if I cancel the silver standard now and change it to an exchange system?" ”

Xu Xiujun was taken aback by this sentence, although there was still Interim President Li Yuanhong above, and there was also the Congress below, but the whole country knew that the future of the country was in the palm of this young man's hand, so he was thinking about whether he would take risks, but he didn't expect to wait to think about changing the currency now, so he hurriedly waved his hand: "No!" ”

"Currency reform must be done, but it is impossible to move now! Silver is still the main currency in circulation in the country, and the popularization of paper money has only begun, and the hasty currency reform can only cause the people to worry about the currency. The lack of gold and silver reserves will lead to a run crisis! Xu Xiujun was afraid that he would rashly change the currency, and continued: "The safest way now is to first over-issue a small number of banknotes, and then use this batch of banknotes to buy silver and gold of the same price in the market for reserves, and then issue them after balancing. ”

"It's not okay if you don't force you, there are so many ways to hide it." Yang Qiu smiled, looked at the equipment that began to be installed, and said: "It just so happens that I am going to Nanjing, let's go back to Wenjing to discuss and see if we can issue 100 million first." ”

Murong Han couldn't hold his breath when he was young, and he couldn't help but stick out his tongue when he heard this number. Cai Gongshi saw his naughty appearance and smiled: "Zihong, I think this time the distribution should focus on domestic and overseas Chinese, it is best to use the registration system, there is no need to make money for foreigners." ”

His words are indeed reasonable, once there is a major turning point in the war, the five-cent interest rate will definitely attract many foreign banks, and they will rack their brains to calculate the Southwest Railway with this public debt, so Xu Xiujun nodded vigorously, and suddenly turned his head and smiled: "Vice President, I heard that Madame's grandfather is a Chinese businessman studying in the United States?" ”

Yang Qiu was stunned for a moment, then glared fiercely, and scolded with a smile: "Okay, you Xu Xiujun, the calculation is on my head, I should really let you go to the front line to supervise the grain and straw." ”

"Haha."

! @#