Chapter 37 Premise
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At the same time as Yang Rui was speaking, some photos related to the plane were taken out, and when several people were looking at the photos, Xie Jintai, who was in charge of diplomacy, said: "The recovery of Taiwan will have a great impact on the international situation, if this is the case, then Britain and France will inevitably enter the war, and Russia will also be dragged in. ↗ Britain and France aside, if Japan and Russia unite, then it will be difficult for us to win. ”
"I know this, the Germans are not good birds, and Wilhelm is a fool, but what good is the union of Japan and Russia good for Russia? Germany can sit on the mountain and watch the tiger fight, why can't Russia sit on the mountain and watch the tiger fight? Yang Rui asked rhetorically. The best choice for the Russians is to wait for us and the Japanese to lose both sides, and suddenly send troops to occupy Mongolia, and if we do not agree to cede Mongolia, then Japan and Russia will jointly strangle us, which is their best choice. If it had been mixed with the Japanese from the very beginning of the Northeast and had won the war, would it have been able to gain something other than Mongolia? The Northeast has long been divided into spheres of influence. The timing of our recovery of Taiwan will be after the start of the war in Europe, and by that time, how much power will Britain and France have in the Far East? ”
"What about military spending?" Yu Huizu, who didn't speak, suddenly asked, this year's tax revenue is too expected, but he has no idea how much it will cost to occupy Taiwan, if he needs 120 million, then he, the head of the household, can only resign.
"Within 50 million!" Yang Rui replied. "As long as we can gain air supremacy and sea supremacy along the coast of Taiwan, it will not be difficult to deal with the thousands of Japanese troops on the island. Coupled with the strength of Taiwan's local guerrillas, the General Staff estimated that a single division would be able to completely wipe out the thousands of Japanese Sixth Army and 10,000 policemen on the island. Brother Zhang. The Taiwan campaign will not increase military spending much. Even because of the need to maintain trade routes, Taiwan must be occupied. Without the occupation of Taiwan, trade may not be insured by relying on the Jiujiang and Hong Kong railways alone. ”
"You won't add it halfway, will you?" Hearing that it was only 50 million, Yu Huizu calmed down a little, the tax revenue in recent years has been higher than the previous expectation, and it can even exceed 600 million taels this year, but there are many places where money is needed.
"The current situation is that there is no need to add more, but it cannot be said that there are no accidents." Yang Rui didn't dare to say it to death, "In fact, how much Taiwan will cost, the key is to see whether we can obtain the sea control of the entire island." As long as the Japanese 6th Army could not go ashore and could not be resupplyed, the war would soon be over. But in any case, by occupying Taiwan, we will have another trade outlet - the airplanes at the southernmost tip of the island of Taiwan can guarantee the sea supremacy of the Bass Strait in clear weather, so that our merchant ships can sail directly from Taiwan into the territorial waters of the Philippines, which is the territory of the Americans, and the Japanese Navy will not dare to sink American flag merchant ships off the coast of the Philippines......"
"What if the weather isn't clear?" Yu Huizu asked, he didn't care about the import of goods. I only care about Yang Rui's previous promise to make two billion yuan in the big battle in Europe, if the foreign trade channel is blocked, how can this money be earned?
"If the weather is not clear, then you can only rely on submarines." Yang Rui replied. "It's really not possible, our merchant ships can be formed and let them only go out when the weather is fine. But that's the last resort. Because it will affect the war in Europe. ”
"Actually, what if you really want Russia to send troops to occupy Mongolia?" The topic was interrupted by Yu Huizu, and Xie Jintai reversed it again. The current diplomatic shape is not the same as last year. The Russians are friendly on the surface, but there is a dark current in Russia. Worried about the alliance between China and Germany, once the monk Putiyating changed his position. Or be assassinated, then it is very likely that Russia will not remain neutral in the Sino-Japanese war.
"Then the negotiations will drag on for time, and if they can't be negotiated, then go to war." Yang Rui said. "But if Russia sends troops to the Far East, will the French be willing? You must know that the French were completely opposed to the Russo-Japanese War, while Germany was fully supportive, and the situation in Europe at that time was not as serious as it is now. Now once the Russian army moves eastward, then do you think Germany will go to war?
At present, the 1st, 6th, and 7th armies in the northeast have a total of three armies and nine divisions, but in fact, our peasants and soldiers can gather 200,000 men, and the necessary weapons and ammunition have been transferred to various places through guò airships. If Russia really participates in the war, the ...... in Guannai" Speaking of this, Yang Rui thought that it was better to focus on popularizing the reserve situation, otherwise everyone would be surprised that so many troops suddenly appeared as he spoke, "The basis of the power of the Fuxing Society is actually the peasant associations that go deep into every village, and now there are peasant associations in 1,300 counties across the country, and since the time of the revolution, every peasant association has peasant soldiers. According to statistics, the total number of peasant soldiers in the country who have been trained for more than four months exceeds 3 million.
Note! This is not to say that there are no more peasant soldiers, but that our military-industrial system and economic strength are limited, so we can only limit the number of peasant soldiers to this scale. In the past two years, these peasant soldiers have been trained very well, and they have mastered all the combat skills required by the infantry, and what they lack is only combat experience, and we have also trained a lot of grassroots officers in the past two years, which is enough to support an army of 2 million. ”
When Yang Rui said this, he suppressed Yu Huizu, who was about to speak, he knew that he was worried that with the expansion of the army, the original military budget was completely insufficient. "We're not trying to arm an army of two million men, because so far we have only been able to arm a million with rifles in the country. I just want to say that we are not worried about the soldiers, and we have enough of these peasant soldiers to deal with the Japanese-Russian coalition forces. Also, in addition to airplanes, we have a new weapon: the tank. ”
With Yang Rui's words, some photos were taken out, which opened everyone's eyes. "I've said before that the exhibition of science and technology is bound to increase the power of weapons, or new weapons, and airplanes and combat vehicles are the products of science and technology exhibitions. Sealed the tractor with steel plates, equipped with artillery and machine guns, that is, modern heavy cavalry. The Tonghua Tractor Factory has already manufactured this weapon, and now more than 300 vehicles have been equipped into the 6th Army and organized into the 1st Armored Division......"
The new weapon is a big money-consuming, an airplane costs 10,000 taels, how much does this kind of combat vehicle cost? Hearing this, Yu Huizu was very uneasy. After speaking a few times, Yang Rui looked at him and smiled: "This thing won't be much more expensive than an airplane." This is a tractor plus a 37-millimeter gun and several machine guns. The Air Force is expensive because a pilot has to consume three motivations to complete training, but the life of a combat vehicle's motivation is much better than that of an airplane. You don't need to consume a motivation to train a chariot crew, you just need to consume diesel, which is cheap, isn't it? ”
"As long as there are three armored divisions and more than a thousand tanks, then even if the Japanese and Russian armies have a million people, our army will have no fear. With tanks and planes, the war will no longer be fought in trenches, as before, and tank units will pass directly through enemy trenches. Destroy enemy rear stations and strategic points. Imagine that the Russian soldiers saw a group of unseen things coming in front of them, rifles could not penetrate, and artillery could not hit - the role of the aircraft was to eliminate the enemy artillery at a fixed point, and in front of the breakthrough several kilometers wide, there would be no more than 100 artillery pieces, which could be eliminated by guò aircraft dive bombing.
The chariot troops broke through, the infantry followed suit, and the next thing was the battle of annihilation, annihilating the besieged enemy who had been cut off from the back road, unable to replenish, and panicked. I am completely convinced in a short period of time. It is impossible to find a countermeasure to this method of combining aircraft and combat vehicles. In the face of such an attack, the only way for the Japanese and Russian armies to do so was to send human bombs to blow up the tanks, and the only way to do so was to keep retreating and retreating. This is a three-dimensional war, no longer a static war. I can guarantee that no general in the world has ever seen this pattern of warfare, and that the Baath Army's offensive will be as invincible as a steel knife into a defeat. The troops are more able to advance two or three hundred kilometers in one day, therefore. I call this method of warfare blitzkrieg. ”
After briefly popularizing the blitzkrieg to a few people, Yang Rui, who was afraid that everyone would not be able to digest it, stopped. It's just that he was wrong. Even at the beginning of World War II, no one believed in the power of blitzkrieg, let alone now. "If Russia really enters the war, and Germany sits on the mountain and watches the tiger fight, then the situation will be dangerous. I feel that it is better for us to dive down for a few years before going to war, at least until the war between Germany and Russia starts, so that we can avoid worries before we can start it. After all, our foundation is too thin, and it is too risky to do this. ”
"It's basically hard." Yang Rui looked at Du Yaquan and said: "After reading the information given to me by the Intelligence Bureau, I have a feeling that it is very likely that Britain and Japan will preemptively solve us in a short period of time." We are not allied with Germany, and if the Entente declares war on us, there is no reason for Germany to go to war immediately, even if it wants to. That is to say, the decision on war is not entirely in our hands. In addition, any kind of new weapon, when it first appears, it can always receive a great effect, and after a period of use, then the countermeasure will appear, we attach importance to aircraft and combat vehicles, foreigners will also pay attention to aircraft and combat vehicles, it really takes a few years for them to become familiar with these two weapons, then the effect is different, any weapon is effective.
Finally, there is an international form, now there is Germany in Europe, Britain and France do not dare to invade the east with all their might, even if the navy participates in the war, it can only send a small number of ships to come. But in a few years, when the war in Europe is over, Britain and France, which have no worries, will definitely go eastward with all their might, and the situation will be completely different from now. ”
"But what if Germany wins? Aren't we able to shoot the Reservoir Dogs? Du Yaquan listened carefully to Yang Rui's answer, and there were several flaws, "And even if the weapon is time-sensitive, Japan will not participate in the war in Europe, and we will also go to war if Europe goes to war, so this will not affect the effectiveness of the weapon, right?" And in doing so, we can completely eliminate this worry of Russia, so that we will not have to face the armies of the two countries. ”
Du Yaquan's rhetorical question hit the nail on the head, in fact, Yang Rui often thinks that he has provided so much technology to Germany, if Germany wins, will it be better to start a war in a few years? After all, Britain and France were defeated countries at that time, and they were powerless to intervene after the bloody war. Despite this, he still felt that Germany was bound to lose, and the key to this was that the United States would definitely help Britain and France.
As for everyone's other fear, that is, Germany will sit on the mountain and watch the tiger fight, Yang Rui thinks that there is such a possibility, but such a possibility is very small, and all the signs indicate that Germany will be ready for war in the middle of next year. The main force of the Russian army will be transferred to the east, and William will take the opportunity to do it, because once the East Asian war ends, the situation in Europe will return to the past, which is very unfavorable to Germany. As for waiting for the start of the First World War before starting the war, Yang Rui also wanted to do so. But he even believes that the Sino-Japanese war will break out this year. After all, they knew that Germany was preparing for war, and Britain, France, and Russia also knew that Germany was preparing for war. Taking advantage of Germany's unfinished preparations for war, it is their best choice to take advantage of this gap to solve China, a pro-German country.
Straighten out your thoughts. Yang Rui lit a cigarette and then said: "I have already said the content of the Wanli plan, and the start time is planned to be the beginning of next year, because according to the intelligence, Germany was completely prepared for war at that time." Qiu Fan said that we can wait for Europe to start fighting before declaring war on Japan, so that there is indeed no need for Russia to worry, but I feel that this is impossible.
We know that Germany will not be ready for war for another eight months, and Britain, France, and Russia must know it too, pay attention! This is also the reason why I judged that Russia would not unite with Japan, because it would take three months to transfer troops to the Trans-Siberian Railway, and it would take three months to transfer them back. There was no time to fight at all, would the Russians do that?
Although there are contradictions between Britain and the United States, the financial forces of the two countries are entangled, and once a war breaks out in Europe, the United States will inevitably be dragged into the water by Britain. When the time comes, Britain and France will borrow billions from the Americans, and if the United States does not fight, it will only follow, so I judge that Germany will definitely lose no matter how it fights. Unless, unless he can occupy France in two years, what about the occupation of France? The Navy is inferior to the British. Even if France is occupied, Britain will continue to fight instead of make peace, and it must not allow Europe to be under the leadership of a strong power, which has been the basic principle of Britain for hundreds of years. As long as Britain continues to fight. Then the United States will end, and the final result will not be able to shake the British colonial system.
And once Britain and the United States get closer, then the contradictions between the United States and Japan will ease. The Far East will also change from Anglo-Japanese dominance to Anglo-American dominance. We can only win a big victory over Japan when Britain and Japan dominate the Far East, once Japan is replaced by the United States. The situation is different again, especially since our merchant ships have to go through the foreign trade of the Philippines, so to speak, the United States is stuck in our throat.
For us, the most favorable situation is that Germany will contain Britain, France, and Russia, and the Far East will be dominated by Britain and Japan, and the United States will be excluded from the Far East. At this time, the only real pillar of the colonial system of the great powers in the Far East was Japan, and once we overthrew this pillar, the balance of power in the Far East would change dramatically. ”
Yang Rui was obviously a little excited, he spoke very quickly, except for Xie Jintai, the others did not keep up with his rhythm, but he finally understood what Du Yaquan meant, that is, to take advantage of the favorable opportunity supported by the United States and Britain, France, and Russia to defeat Japan and subvert the East Asian power structure that had been laid before. He felt that Yang Rui's judgment was not inappropriate, but Yang Rui seemed to think that even if he made concessions to Japan, Britain and Japan and other countries would preemptively start a war against China, so as to completely solve the Far East problem before the war in Europe, is this really the case?
"Mr. Chong'an, what do you think?" Du Yaquan thought about it for a long time, and finally threw this matter to Xie Zhangtai, who was a scholar of diplomacy and knew more about the international situation than several people here.
"Cough, cough..."Xie Jintai has been listening to Yang Rui, his views have changed and he has gained deeply, for example, the financial entanglement between Britain and the United States is something he did not consider before, and now Du Yaquan suddenly asked his opinion, he was a little at a loss, and after calming down, he said: "If it is really as Cheng Cheng said, the financial forces of Britain and the United States are deeply entangled, then if the German Navy cannot break the blockade of the British Navy and make business with the Americans, then the United States will definitely enter the war in the end." If the United States enters the war, then Germany will be defeated, and if we want to go to war again after the war, we will be deeply contained by Britain and the United States. Taiwan is too close to the Philippines, and even if the Americans were happy to see us attack Japan before the European war, we must promise to allow the US Navy to be stationed after the occupation of Taiwan, otherwise it will be difficult for the United States to support this matter.
Qiu Fan believes that the best time to start a war is after the start or end of the European war, but this is unlikely. If Europe really wanted to go to war, Japan would not go to war, after all, they knew that our 6th Army was more numerous than themselves, and the navy was superior but could not obtain actual results, and at that time, the Entente countries were unable to look eastward, and there were only three countries in the Far East, China, the United States, and Japan, and he would definitely suffer a loss if he started a war. Before the war, it was different, Japan would think that the entire Entente was on his side, and at this time he would think that it would be four or five against one.
Japan will not dare to provoke a war after the start of Europe, then only we will provoke it, but once this happens, it will be difficult for us to gain the support of US public opinion, and US public opinion will greatly affect US national policy.
It turned out that what he said was too fast, but I heard what he meant clearly. He meant only one thing: that it was best to go to war before the United States was drawn into Europe and co-opted by Britain; And it will be difficult to wait for the start of the European war before starting a war against Japan. Because Britain and Japan will definitely start in advance.
There is another thing that I think is too quick to forget, and the United States really wants to be determined to stand on the side of Britain, France, and Russia. That would definitely mediate the Sino-Japanese war, after all, Japan was an ally of Britain. And Britain is a member of the Entente, and when we fight Japan, we are fighting the Entente. In this case, we are faced with a difficult choice: to continue fighting, then we will stand against the entire Entente and the United States, and even if we are not allied with Germany, we will be considered to have secretly formed an alliance; And if the armistice is not fought, then after the return of the British, French and Russian forces, there will be no chance to fight.
Therefore, after the start of the European war, and after the end of the European war, it will be fought. It seems to me that it is no different. I can't judge how long the war in Europe will last, if it is like Japan and Russia, and it will end after only a year of fighting, then the European side will stop, and our side will not be over, and in this case, Taiwan will definitely not be able to take it back; And if it is true that the European side will fight for three or four years, then Britain, France and Russia are not afraid, but what if the United States wants us to stop the war? Know that all oil is supplied by the United States. It seems to me that if Russia does not interfere. If we are not afraid of Russian intervention, then the best time to go to war is now! Within two years, Korea and Taiwan will be recovered, no matter when the European war ends and when the United States joins the Entente. It doesn't affect us anymore. ”
After Xie Jintai finished speaking, Yang Rui suddenly praised him: You are so talented! The war had to begin before the start of the war in Europe and end after the United States joined the British and French camps. Otherwise, the United States, which joined the British and French camps, would definitely intervene in the Sino-Japanese war. As for the start of the war after the end of the European war, not to mention, Britain, France and the United States will definitely suppress China. Historically, Britain was reluctant to occupy Shandong by Japan. It's just that I'm afraid that Japan will become bigger. Japan is afraid, but what about China?
"Isn't there an oil field in Nanyang, Henan? Can't you supply oil yet? Du Yaquan asked.
"Not yet." Yang Rui replied: "At least the refinery will not be built until the next year, and once the war starts, I don't know what the Mobil gang will pay attention to." In addition to oil supply, we also had to do the business of the First World War through the United States, and if the United States really stuck us, it would be very difficult to do. In the first war against Japan, in fact, it depends on the position of the United States, as long as it is a little biased towards the Entente, then the war will be very difficult to fight. Maybe...... After the war, I will go to the United States once and personally show goodwill to the Americans, otherwise I will ......" Yang Rui said this, I don't know whether I am happy or sad that I have such an opportunity to please the Americans.
"Actually, I agree with you that there is an extremely important premise: that is, if Germany does not enter the war, we can fight the Japanese and Russian 6th armies on the 6th ground, and the ability to overwhelm the British and French fleets on the sea. Is the General Staff really guaranteed that this can be done? Xie Jintai asked. Although he thought that Yang Rui's grasp of the international situation and the timing of the war was correct, he had the opportunity and the ability, and he felt that the blitzkrieg described by Yang Rui was too exaggerated.
"I can do it!" Yang Rui is well aware of the power of blitzkrieg, before the dive bomber was clear, he was very confident in dealing with the Japanese and Russian armies at the same time, and now that the dive bomber has appeared, he is even more confident. "In the face of a blitzkrieg, the armies of any country could not resist, including the Germans. This is... This is a qualitative change, not a mere quantitative change. Think of a fire-breathing and invulnerable steel monster, a plane that flies through the sky, shoots at the ground and drops bombs, leaving the soldiers in the trenches with nowhere to hide. Moreover, the enemy rushed to the rear at once, and the army's greatest concern was that the rear road would be fried and supplies cut off, and if we chose to use a blitzkrieg after the crops were harvested, it would be to starve them to death if we did not fight.
As for the sea, all we have to ensure is the safety of the sea route from Shanghai to Xiamen, which is only 1,000 kilometers, and 800 torpedo planes are completely sufficient, and the capture of Taiwan will not begin until the European war begins, and there will not be much pressure on the convoy to escort the convoy in the early stage. Besides, how many ships do we have? The sea is full of foreign ships. If they could make money, they would come. (My novel "Heroes of the Late Qing Dynasty" will have more fresh content on the official WeChat platform, and there will also be a 1oo% lucky draw gift for everyone!) Open WeChat now, click on the "+" sign in the upper right corner "Add Friends", search for the official account "qdread" and follow, hurry up! (To be continued!)
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