Since the meeting discussed the issue of shipping, Xu Huafeng's construction is to build additional docks, train workers, and once again expand the scale of shipbuilding, of course, this scale must not be as large as before, after all, the merchant ship is limited, and now these three or four million tons have been borrowed from Japanese shipping personnel, and then the ship can only be leased, so this round of ships is mainly used for leasing and external sales, and the purpose of sales and leasing is to speculate on the price of the ship, when the price of the ship is high, the freight rate will naturally rise sharply. So the first three or four million ships will benefit from this.

Yang Rui couldn't help but be very surprised, he looked at Xu Huafeng, feeling that this should not be what he came up with, and then looked at Yu Huizu, but found that he was smiling. At the moment, he asked: "Hanzhang, what are you?" ”

Seeing Yang Rui ask himself, Yu Huizu nodded, not denying that he had come up with this solution.

All aspects of the war cost money, and nitric acid was not very expensive because it had to compete with saltpeter, but shipping was different. And both China and Japan know that the most profitable thing must be shipping, which is based on steel, shipyards, riveting workers, well-trained crews, etc., which cannot be perfected in the short term. Even if China builds ships on a large scale with the strength of one country, there are still many problems that remain unsolved. Since only China and Japan control such a large number of merchant ships in the short term, it is necessary to speculate, and with the tonnage of Chinese and Japanese merchant ships, even if the freight rate rises by 10%, it is a great number.

"This is a report submitted by the CIA, Qiu Fan didn't dare to decide, so he came to discuss with me, I looked at the numbers in all aspects, especially the estimates of the Intelligence Bureau and the General Queen, and I felt that I could still do it." Yu Huizu said. "Mr. Hua Feng's meaning is that we should sell some merchant ships or buy some merchant ships at a price, so that the price of ships can be raised. Freight rates will also rise. ”

After he finished speaking, Xu Huafeng smiled and said, "Now Japan feels that shipbuilding is too expensive. Don't dare to build it, then we have to open more docks to build by ourselves, whether this is a fried ship I don't really understand, this is still to listen to Hanzhang, he is confident. ”

The matter turned to Yu Huizu, who cleared his throat very formally and said: "The total tonnage of ocean-going merchant ships in the world last year was more than 28 million tons, Britain had more than 13 million tons [Note 1:], and Germany had 4 million tons. Austria-Hungary is 1 million tons, France is 1,620,000 tons, Denmark is 1,000,000 tons, and Russia does not have an exact number, but it is about 3,000,000 tons......"

"Germany, Austria-Hungary, Russia, if there are ships, they can't get out, so don't forget about them. You tell me how much tonnage the United States has. Yang Rui remembered that he had read the World Shipping Report two years ago or three years ago, but he had forgotten the numbers on it.

"The U.S. ocean-going merchant vessels are 20 tons more than Japan's, with a capacity of 1.8 million tons [Note 2]." Yu Hui Zu said.

"So little?!" Yang Rui was very surprised, with the total economic volume and naval tonnage of the United States, the tonnage of this merchant ship is too small.

"Yes. That's so little. So the freight rate of the Pacific Ocean has not dropped. Yu Huizu said. However, he had news that surprised Yang Rui even more, "Excluding China, the world's merchant ships launched 3.6 million tons, and the United States launched 300,000 tons of ocean-going merchant ships. He had only sixty-six shipyards, large and small, in the country, and twenty-four of them were wooden ships. The General Staff and the Ministry of Industry judged that if the government did not invest in shipbuilding on a large scale. Then in four years, the total tonnage of American merchant ships will not exceed three million tons. ”

"But I remember......" Yang Rui couldn't tell him what he remembered, so he hurriedly changed his words: "I remember the judgment of the General Staff that German submarines would sink six million tons of merchant ships every year - if they start unlimited submarine warfare now." And every year will be more than a year. ”

"That's what it means." Yu Huizu said: "Germany can basically sink all the merchant ships in the world, and then there are a bunch left that cannot sail far." Or sailing ships and boats that are difficult to sail long distances, but we don't know when Germany will start unrestricted submarine warfare, and this matter still needs to be judged by the Ministry of Intelligence. ”

"I understand that the intelligence services are watching this all the time." Yang Rui suddenly felt a little uneasy in his heart, he remembered that the unrestricted submarine war in history should have started at the beginning of the eighth year of Shenwu, but now, I don't know when Wilhelm II will make a desperate bet. If the judgment is wrong, for example, if Germany has not carried out unrestricted submarine warfare from the beginning to the end, the matter can be ......

"The report of the General Staff said that once Germany began unrestricted submarine warfare, the already crowded docks of Britain and France would be filled with cruisers, and the construction of cruisers would take at least a year, which would cause a sharp decline in the number of Allied merchant ships. It cannot be replenished by relying on the hundreds of thousands of tons of water launched by the United States, while the steel of various countries in Europe is used for military industry, and France, because the north is occupied by Germany, the steel output is only less than 40% of the pre-war period, and it is estimated that the total amount of water launched by European and American merchant ships will not exceed 3 million tons by then.

The Entente countries built warships, and Germany built submarines, so that the number of merchant ships would become smaller and smaller. In the end, the freight rate will be higher and higher. As long as the United States does not focus on merchant ships, then our profits can be guaranteed to the maximum. "Yu Hui Ancestral Dao." If it can be determined that Germany will carry out unrestricted submarine warfare, then it will not only speculate on the price of ships in East Asia, but also go to the United States and secretly interfere with American shipbuilding in order to reduce the number of ships it ships. ”

"Interference? How to interfere? Yang Rui looked at Yu Huizu, not wanting Du Yaquan to take over the conversation, he said: "The main thing is to prevent the US Congress from vigorously revitalizing the shipbuilding industry." We can influence public opinion in the United States, monitor the movements of consortia and shipyards, and we can lobby lawmakers if the U.S. Congress proposes a bill to subsidize shipbuilding. We could even provoke American shipbuilders to strike and make shipyards unable to work; There are also anti-submarine technologies that can be slightly useful for submarines, so that shipyards cannot estimate the real danger ......of submarines, and these are the methods anyway, the purpose is one, to prevent the United States from large-scale shipbuilding, especially early shipbuilding. ”

Hearing that Du Yaquan actually said that he was going to provoke the Americans to strike, Yang Rui laughed, what a good person he was at the beginning, but now he has become so bad. He said: "It is not our business to interfere with the United States, just let the Germans do it." I'm worried now about whether we'll be able to expand our shipbuilding and whether the machine will be enough. Is there enough steel? ”

"The most important piece of equipment in the dockyard is the crane." Xu Hua said, "We can produce this ourselves." If it can't be produced, it's still too late to order it in the United States. Steel words. It's basically enough. It depends on how much tonnage we will expand, the previous estimate was to launch 800,000 tons of merchant ships per year, based on the calculation of shipyard manpower and crew members, we can expand to build 1 million tons of merchant ships a year, but this output can only reach half next year, and the target can only be achieved the year after tomorrow. ”

"One million and two thousand tons?" Yang Rui said. "It's just a lot of ......, it's not much!"

"If the war is fought for four years, it will be an extra million tons of merchant ships." Xu Hua sealed. "The main thing is the lack of crew, because the shipbuilders are standard ships. Production is easy to train, but there are not so many crew members to drive the ship. ”

"How many people can you pull over from Japan?" Yang Rui thought about the tonnage of merchant ships, there are now one million tons of merchant ships, 800,000 this year, 1 million next year, 1.2 million the year after next, the year after tomorrow ...... Immediately after that, there was an armistice, totaling four million tons; If Japan had 2 million tons, then China and Japan together had 6 million tons of merchant ships, the second largest shipping company in the world after Britain - if British ships could survive half of the German submarines.

Yang Rui thought, but Xu Huafeng said: "I'm not thinking about how many boatmen Japan can give us. If Japan also goes all out to build ships from this year, the total tonnage of merchant ships in China and Japan will be at least 9 million tons. If you don't get it, you will be able to have 10 million tons of ......."

"I just have a question......" Yang Rui suddenly thought, but he didn't know how to say this question as soon as he opened his mouth.

Du Yaquan, who seemed to guess his thoughts, said, "I was worried that foreigners would come hard." Forced to lower freight rates? ”

"Hmm. I have this concern. The largest cargo route is still the Atlantic, and we can only help the Americans, the British, and the French to transport goods. What if they join forces to drive down freight rates? After all, their ships are in the minority, and ours is the majority......," Yang Rui said with his worries. He has a natural distrust of the great powers, and when the time comes, the foreigners will force a low price, or will it not be lucky?

"Then we won't be lucky!" Dua Springs. "Do the great powers want to take the ship? Although our navy is weak, we still have nearly 200 submarines, and the Japanese also have a fleet, and the two shipping companies have already joined forces, and he always has to come out. ”

"Actually, what effect can you achieve by the wolf pack tactics you are talking about?" Xu Huafeng asked: "The real yàn room has not come up with a feasible way to crack this tactic so far, they only say that it is very promising." Now that the detection range of underwater probes has increased several times compared to before, and the sensitivity is also higher, the real room believes that as long as there is enough time, then it is not a problem to solve this series of problems. ”

"Well......" After being reminded by Du Yaquan and Xu Huafeng, Yang Rui suddenly felt that it seemed that there was a lot of dependence on forcibly occupying the world shipping market. If the great powers force a low freight rate, then let them fight to the death with the wolves.

In silence, Yang Rui lit a cigarette, thought for a while, and then looked up and saw everyone looking at him, he smiled and said, "Let's all relax." It's so tangled. We let Japan build ships, and he won't do anything about it. Not to mention the rest, he is likely to have to pay credit for the marine steel plate, this bet is big!

Now we are shipbuilding, although the scale is also very large, but the shipbuilding cycle is only three months, and there is a two-million-ton cordon, if the unlimited submarine war does not start, we will not cross the line, and the European war is almost over, we can immediately call a stop; This is just a two-million-ton merchant ship, and it is not a big deal. But nearly 10 million tons of merchant ships ......, this is a gamble on national fortune! Think about how much money can be earned by this 10 million ton merchant ship? At present, the US ship charter fee is less than 11 nautical miles, and the monthly payment is 40 US dollars per ton of weight, and if there is a shortage of ships for this 10 million tons, it will be 400 million US dollars, 4.8 billion yuan a year, and 14.4 billion yuan after three years of war.

However, if we build a ship, we will not follow the market price, but at 100 yuan per ton, 10 million tons will exceed the amount by more than 600 tons, and the cost will be 600 million yuan. If these ships do not carry goods, then the 600 million Chinese yuan will be lost. In addition, with our foreign trade situation and the layout of the world's docks, when the war is over, the usable merchant ships will not exceed 200 tons, which will have to put many merchant ships into inland waterway transportation. The year before last, he bet hundreds of millions of taels on a gamble, that is, he wanted to fight a war and build a ship. You can't lose anywhere if you lose, now. Bet on world shipping, bet so big. What a ......."

Yang Rui has always been radical and bold in his decision-making, Du Yaquan and others thought that he would immediately agree to the dock expansion plan and cooperate with Japan to supervise his shipbuilding plan, but who knew that he would have so many concerns. Du Yaquan smiled: "Actually, this is not like you, why did you become so cautious?" ”

"You know!" Yang Rui scolded with a smile, "As the saying goes, the older the rivers and lakes, the less courageous they are." This isn't just a matter of making a handful of things, it's a fucking thing that wants to rob the whole world for years. Now the charter of ships is forty dollars, but it is really necessary to start unlimited submarine warfare. Then this price will be multiplied several times. The current price increase is not because the merchant ship was sunk by German submarines, but because Britain and France have pulled out all the merchant ships from Asia and gone to the Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and Africa.

It is the closest place to Europe, and from there it is the closest to transport the supplies needed. So here in Asia, there are no tigers in the mountains, and the monkeys are the kings. But if the Germans 'bang bang' and kill 6 million tons of merchant ships in one year and 800 tons in the next year, then we will be the world's shipping masters, but there are not enough pistols. Can this uncle be called uncle? Japan has a navy, but that navy is too weak. And we have submarines, but we make money, can we really start a war with foreigners because of the high and low freight rates? ”

"It did. As long as the charter price can go up to two hundred dollars, then we will rent out the whole boat; I don't want to rent it for two hundred dollars, I don't want to rent it for one hundred dollars. That's a billion dollars a month, 10 billion a year. We're not greedy. Du Yaquan smiled. The others nodded their heads, just thinking it was a good idea.

"It's really unproductive." Yang Rui scolded again. "The 10 million-ton ship. Either the unrestricted submarine war has not begun, the rent will always be only forty or fifty dollars, and the merchant ships need to be saturated; Either there was a shortage of merchant ships, and the rent eventually rose to four or five hundred. It's all gone up to four or five hundred and one tons, what are we renting for, isn't it better to ship it ourselves......"

"Haha......" A few chuckles, Yang Rui spoke upside down, and everyone present was confused by him. Yu Huizu said: "Actually, what are we building ships for, isn't it to get a piece of the pie in shipping?" World trade exceeds US$36 billion a year[Note 3] and freight costs are at least US$4 billion, not counting insurance premiums. Since we have been eyeing this piece so early, and we have worked hard to pull the Japanese into the game, we can't keep thinking about making a billion or two billion, we should think about whether we can cut half of this cake.

You said before that the vision of doing things should be set higher, and the ancients also said: seek the top and get it, and seek the middle and get the bottom. At present, only the United States and Britain have the ability to build more than 5 million tons of merchant ships in wartime, and Britain cannot control it. The war is only a few years, and with his current shipbuilding capacity of hundreds of thousands of tons, he is misled for a year, and even if he goes all out to expand the dockyard, he will lose several million tons of merchant ships. At that time, we will have the most ships in the world, whether it is our own transportation or leasing, but the freight rate will not rise, and we will only share it according to the proportion of the tonnage of merchant ships, how can we get four or five billion US dollars?

Don't laugh......" The good-tempered Yu Huizu was a little angry, and his voice raised an octave: "This is not peacetime, this is a war that determines world hegemony." The military situation at the front is on fire. The German Army was one enemy and three enemies, and Britain and France were barely undefeated by colonial blood transfusions, and once most of their merchant ships were wiped out by German submarines, then our ships would be their saviors.

If you're worried that they're forcing down the freight rate, then we can bet on both ends. If Britain, France and other countries do not agree to our freight rates, then we will negotiate with Germany, because without these ships Germany is likely to win, so the Germans do not want us to go to him, he will come himself. If we sink all these ships, Germany will not only lose money to us on the spot, but may also divide our two colonies if we win. I don't believe that Britain and France and other parliaments fell out with us at such a time, and if the British were really so short-sighted, how could they dominate the world for hundreds of years. ”

It seems that Yu Huizu has already thought about cutting a big piece of the fast cake in the world shipping market, and after he finished speaking, he looked at Yang Rui and asked, "It's done, just say it, what is the risk of this?" ”

"This thing ......" Yu Huizu was very serious, and Yang Rui also began to be serious, "Okay, let's not talk about the freight rate, it's a big deal, make less money." Now there are still three questions, one is how to fool the Americans to delay for a year. The United States is the only country that can surpass our shipbuilding, although it now has only a pitiful hundred tons of merchant ships and hundreds of thousands of tons of merchant ships launched every year. But the Americans are willing. Merchant ships can be built as Ford cars are built. What if there are too many merchant ships in the two countries at that time? What should I do if the freight rate drops sharply?

The second is how to talk to Japan. This is not the previous shipping pool, this is a shipbuilding pool. Japan needs to build at least 3 million tons of ships. Only then can the two countries have 10 million tons. Who will pay for the cost of more than hundreds of millions? What about profit and risk? This is to fill in the profits of munitions and materials, otherwise where would there be so many dockyards and so much steel? When we set the plan to build 800,000 tons a year, we said that we would build 3 or 4 million tons of merchant ships because we were looking at the wind and making people feel like they were coaxing people, and that the unrestricted submarine war would not start, and we would have to wait and see when we built 2 million tons, but now this plan is going all out to 10 million tons, which is several times higher than the previous risk.

Finally, there is unrestricted submarine warfare and underwater probes, the former if there is none. It would be in vain to build so many merchant ships; If the latter is not, then the supplies and personnel will not be able to help, and maybe Germany will really win. The British and French banknotes we collected were about to turn into waste paper.

I've been doing the revolution for so long, and many times I don't feel afraid when I make decisions, but when things pass, I think about it, and my back is full of sweat. It's not that I'm cowardly, it's that we're the ruling party now, and more than 400 million people are counting on us. If it's really wrong, the loss of money is a trivial matter, and the follow-up series of plans will have to be repeated. China is lagging behind. But there is still a chance for a rapid revival, but this opportunity is small and small, and the white horse passes through the gap and is fleeting. You have to be cautious about this. ”

Yang Rui's words were serious, and Du Yaquan and Yu Huizu, who wanted to pry out most of the meat in the world shipping market, also pondered. It was indeed a tempting idea to build so many ships and become a big brother in wartime shipping. If the freight does not rise, it will be billions a year, and it will rise several times during the war? The 10 million-ton merchant ship has been in operation for two or three years. Maybe in the end, you can really earn tens of billions. China wants to have these tens of billions, plus the money to buy arms and materials. That's okay, it's going to run into capitalism.

The idea is good, but is it realistic? A half-deflated and three-poor dick, half-heartedly pulling a second-rate naval power to partner, taking advantage of the ignorance of civilized first-class people, actually wants to dominate the wartime world shipping bowl? And then there is unrestricted submarine warfare, and there is a detector to crack unrestricted submarine warfare, can these two things be done? Especially in unrestricted submarine warfare, will the Germans take risks?

The meeting can't go on here. To be honest, Yang Rui couldn't find a reason to stop it, but he just felt that the risk was too high. The warning line of 2 million tons was set before, and now if we want to achieve 10 million tons of merchant ships, we will have to smash hundreds of millions, but this is only the cost price, and once it fails, the loss will be more than 100 million yuan, and according to the market price, this is at least 15 billion. If the money is gone, then Central Asia will have to give up.

But what if it succeeds? According to the analysis of the briefing given by Yu Huizu after the meeting, the net profit of wartime shipping will not be less than 2 billion pounds[Note 4], or 10 billion US dollars, or 20 billion Chinese dollars. Because the steel material for Japan's 3 million tons of merchant ships is the cost price, and even China has to pay part of the shipbuilding costs in advance, when the two countries divide the accounts, China will have to get at least 60 percent of the profits, that is, it will be able to share 1.2 billion pounds sterling (12 billion Chinese dollars), which is 15 times the fiscal revenue and 1.5 times the gross national product.

With such a huge amount, it is no wonder that Du Yaquan and Yu Huizu will hold on to it. Investing less than two billion, but earning back several times the profit, this does not include the cost of disposing of those merchant ships in the future, if this is the case, the investment will be even lower.

Yang Rui returned to the back house after work, holding this report for a while happy and worried, walking and standing for a while, talking to himself for a while and being silent for a while, making his wives think that he was not sick. With a warm and fragrant tender hand caressing his forehead, Cheng Ying asked, "You don't have a fever, what's wrong with you?" ”

"I don't have much," Yang Rui said, "There is just one thing to decide." If you win, you will be rich and prosperous from now on, and everything will be fine; If you lose, then ......" Yang Rui can't say what will happen if he loses, won't he lose more than a billion yuan. The rate of return on this sale is almost 1,000 ....... With the standard virtue of a capitalist, if there is a profit of 300 percent, it should be murdered and set on fire, and now that there is 1,000 percent, why not gamble? (To be continued......)

PS: Note 1: Outline of the History of World Civilization (Modern Part) P450

Note 2: Declaration Series, 11, U.S. War Planned Economy, P310

Note 3: The World Economic Crisis of 1848-1935, Vol. 1, P487

Note 4: The British shipping industry made a profit of £2.4 billion during the war. - "The Compassion of War", Neil. By Niall Ferguson, p205.