Count Christian, to be exact, should be Christian. Count Brück had previously been a logistical staff officer in the Second German Reich army, and had sworn to die for Germany, but his misfortunes made him no longer interested in the war. When Leo returned home with a group of patriots, he was the only one who remained—in terms of life and preferences, he was already a Chinese nobleman rather than a German officer, who often walked birds in cages and went to kilns and operas.

After instructing Zhang Shi to make arrangements, Yang Rui thought of the Germans who were pampered and fat in the capital, and he was really worried that he would be inseparable from the comfort nest of Beijing, but when he was worried about Germany just now, something was coming.

"Actually, there is an extremely important matter...... Du Yaquan, the secretary of the Ministry of Commerce, brought Chen Zhenxian, the successor of Tao Chengzhang of the Ministry of Agriculture, Yan Deqing of the Ministry of Transportation, and Yu Ziyi of the Commerce and Intelligence Bureau came in a hurry, he had a big matter.

"Say it." Yang Rui saw that his expression was a little anxious, and he didn't understand what was going on.

"Actually, now there is a shortage of food in the whole of Europe, especially on the side of the Allies, since Germany, which is the farthest and most difficult to get through, can it also be transported into grain from other countries?" Dua Springs.

He said that he looked at Chen Zhenxian on the side, and Chen Zhenxian immediately said: "Prime Minister, domestic grain production is increasing every year, and it is said that the grain will hurt the peasants, but Europe is in the midst of a war, and grain prices have remained high. Although domestic prices have been restricted, export prices have been maintained at a high level by raising tariffs and rebating agricultural cooperatives at the same time after the tariffs are withdrawn, so the people's enthusiasm for growing grain has always been very high, and last year's grain output was more than 148.3 million tons. This year, due to the conversion of most ammonia plants, the output is estimated to be 160 million tons......"

"There are so many?" Yang Rui was taken aback. improved seeds, water conservancy, chemical fertilizers, pesticides. Under the influence of various factors, the average grain yield per mu has increased by more than eight kilograms. In the final analysis, there is still money to be invested in this agriculture, and there is no output without money.

"There really are so many." Chen Zhen first held his glasses and nodded very seriously. Speaking of this......, Chen Zhenxian suddenly remembered that the prime minister usually said that the ton was toned, so he changed his tune: "The grain is 38 yuan per ton, 35 yuan for wheat, not to mention soybeans, and even the lowest sorghum is 30 yuan." ”

"Our output is probably not far from that of the United States and Russia. Can the people eat meat every day now? "The price of domestic munitions has risen, but as long as the daily necessities are not imported foreign goods, the price is still stable, 38 per ton of millet, that is equal to a piece of 9 per quintal, 12 3 cents of silver. The number alone will not be high, but the problem is that this is the purchase price of the farmers, which is really different from the past, when the usury was exploited and the grain merchants lowered the price again when the harvest was harvested. The purchase price is not even one or two. For the peasants, there is really no better era than now, and the emperor's grace is really not shouting.

Yang Rui's casual two sentences made Chen Zhenxian not know how to answer, and the previous sentence was completely wrong. Because China has been the world's largest grain output from the very beginning, even if Russia has a bumper harvest in the second year of Shenwu, counting potatoes, there are only 96 million tons of potatoes (four catties of potatoes are converted into one catty of grain); United States. Even when wheat was grown in large quantities during the war, it produced only 120 million tons of grain[note 111]; And the latter sentence asks if the people can eat meat. It only made Chen Zhenxian's heart surge.

"Back to the Prime Minister, our ...... Our output is already the largest in the world. Russia is now in constant war, and the United States will only produce 135 million tons of grain this year, which is not as much as ours. Chen Zhenxian said, "People all over the country can't say that they can eat meat every day, but as long as they are not far from the railway line and the canal, they can always spend a lot of money to eat frozen meat from Mongolia......

If we really want to talk about the difference between the current rural areas and the previous rural areas, and how much the people's living standards have improved, it will not be enough to talk about it for three days and three nights. Yang Rui didn't believe in the things in the newspaper below, he had long wanted to go to the countryside to see it in person, but the war was not over and he had no time; And Du Yaquan didn't come here to report on the improvement of farmers' lives, so the two coughed at the same time, and Chen Zhenxian woke up from the lengthy introduction.

"Total... Li ......," Chen Zhen first looked at Yang Rui, and then looked at Du Yaquan in a daze, and finally remembered the purpose of this under his signal, and immediately said: "Prime Minister, the Ministry of Agriculture has proposed to focus on organizing merchant ships to transport grain for sale in the three countries of Ottoman, Bulgaria, and Austria-Hungary, and the British can blockade the North Sea, but they can't blockade the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea. The sale of China's grain to these places will not only enable the peasants to increase their incomes, but also obtain gold and hard currency. ”

As soon as Chen Zhen said gold, Yang Rui's eyes lit up, "This is good!" Why didn't you just say it? ”

"Didn't an American just now?" Dua Springs on one side. Yang Rui formed a cabinet for the second time, and still appointed the American Pei Yili as the secretary of the Ministry of Land, although his specialty is only planting trees, and Ding Wenjiang and Wu Tongju are in charge of minerals and water conservancy, but as a secretary, he has to attend the monthly ministerial meeting, unless it happens to be a Sunday.

"Hmm." Yang Rui nodded, feeling that this American was indeed getting more and more in the way.

While he was thinking about it, Yu Ziyi, director of the Bureau of Commerce, said: "Sir, now that the war is over, does the Japanese Navy still have the obligation to escort the merchant fleet?" ”

"Yes, the money in the second half of last year and the first half of this year has not been settled, how can it not?" Yang Rui was a little strange, "You won't say that we have any conflicts with the French Italians, right?" ”

"Sir, not French and Italian. The French were only interested in punishing the partition of Germany, and they did not care about the other Allied powers; The Italians can dredge up with money without saying anything, and now what they really care about is whether Britain and France will fulfill their previous promises at the Paris Peace Conference and let him get the Adriatic port of Fumu and a large area of Austro-Hungarian territory," Yu Ziyi said. "I'm worried about the United States. In order to support Europe, which was short of food, the United States frequently lent money to Britain, France, and Italy to buy grain.

This has led to the current situation: 100 million people, but more than 130 million tons of food. more than one ton per capita; And the price, even if the potatoes were before the war. also twenty-two dollars [note 112], or forty-four Chinese dollars per ton; And wheat. According to the U.S. government's wartime food control law in the sixth year of Shenwu, the government guaranteed that the price of wheat would not be less than US$2 per bushel [Note 113], and that the price of a bushel of wheat in the United States was 26 kilograms, which was roughly US$76 a ton, or 152 Chinese dollars......"

"It's so expensive!!" Yang Rui was a little stunned, he immediately looked at Chen Zhenxian and said, "How much did you just say about wheat harvest?" ”

"The purchase price of wheat farmers is 38 yuan per ton." Chen Zhen said first, when he still has to explain. Yang Rui looked at Du Yaquan.

"The price is four times worse! Even if there is a gap in freight, it can't be ......, and it can't be ......" The price difference is too big, and the stimulated Yang Rui is actually a little incoherent, which is too damn a loss.

"The price is several times different, but the price is maintained by loans from Americans!" Du Yaquan saw Yang Rui glaring at him, and felt very aggrieved, "According to the statistics of the Business Intelligence Bureau, from the declaration of war by the United States to the present. He lent the Allies more than $4 billion to buy their own agricultural products,[note 114] and it was this money that enabled them to sell more than 15 million tons of grain at high prices. We had asked the Ministry of Households to lend money to the countries of the Entente countries, but the Ministry of Households did not agree at all, and I said several times that you had decided on this matter. It is said that it is absolutely impossible to lend to the Entente countries, unless the collateral is a foreign asset in our country. ”

"Ahh Yang Rui originally felt that this was a dereliction of duty by the Ministry of Commerce, and he didn't want to lose it and blame himself for going around in a circle. "Yes. I said that you should never lend credit to the Entente, because the money will be a bad debt by then. It can't be taken back at all. ”

He sat back in his chair at this point, and his thoughts were much clearer. The favorite thing that Americans do business, or rather Jews, like to do business with is on credit. The reputation of the usurer is not for nothing. On the one hand, through lending, bankers can charge high interest rates; On the other hand, the industrialist knows that you are going to buy goods on a large scale and then increase the price forcefully, which is called peeling two cowhides from a cow.

But the problem is that it does look so profitable on paper, but in reality the money is often bad. Now the Entente countries owe the United States a loan of up to $16 billion, and the British and French approach is that Germany will pay me back, and I will pay it back to you. From the point of view of the Americans, it is Britain, France and Italy that do not keep their credibility, and then put on the mask of humanitarianism, confusing making money with doing good.

Seeing that Yang Rui finally understood that the problem was not with the Ministry of Commerce, Du Yaquan breathed a sigh of relief, and he said again: "It's terrible to think about it, more than 10 billion US dollars are loaned, plus the military expenses of various countries, the allies will definitely not be able to pay so much money." The United States is trapped this time, and the accounts of the Entente will definitely rot. Now I think it is right not to lend to the Entente, they are now holding a lot of IOUs, and although we are not taking real money, but it is money. ”

After these gossips, Du Yaquan continued: "This year, the United States is expected to produce 950 million 2 million bushels of wheat alone, about 23 million tons, and according to the CIA, the average American consumes only 200 pounds of flour per year[note 115], or 90 kilograms, and 100 million Americans only need 9 million tons of flour." Based on the 75 percent yield of wheat in foreign countries, this is only 12 million tons of wheat, which means that the United States must export 10 million tons of wheat this year.

It's not just wheat, the United States exported a large number of horses to Europe during the war, and when there were more horses, the domestic horse prices were extremely high, and the price of horses was extremely high, so the farmers all switched to tractors, and we have exported so many tractors in recent years entirely thanks to the fact that the United States has lost seven million horses. But there are fewer horses, the farmers' planting habits have not changed, and the oats fed to the horses are still planted a lot, and now that the war is over, these oats do not know where to sell. ”

"You mean that the United States is about to have another general agricultural crisis?" Yang Rui asked.

"That's true." Dua Springs. "Either next year or the year after, the economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of farmers will cause a massive shock in the US economy. It can't be said how serious it is, but the losses for the least farmers are extremely staggering. The United States will not only raise tariffs on agricultural products, but will also have a very high relationship with us. Du Yaquan really didn't know what words to use, and finally said: "Anyway, our grain sales in Europe will inevitably cause hostility against the Americans, and the ministries must be prepared for this." ”

After Du Yaquan finished speaking, Yang Rui just nodded. He said: "It's rare that Americans can't reduce the area under cultivation?" ”

"Reducing the acreage?" Yu Ziyi shook his head, Chen Zhenxian also shook his head, and Du Yaquan said. "It turned out to be a year before Shenwu. In the United States, there are 347 million acres of planted acreage, and now there are only 70 million acres more; At that time, his grain output was 110 million tons, and if you want him to reduce his production, where can he reduce it, and those farmers will go bankrupt.

The current situation is that because Russia was unable to export grain during the war, and now it is a war, Russia's missing share is lost to us, the United States. At the same time, because of the strict food control of various countries during the war, it was filled. But then the situation will not be right, after the demobilization of soldiers from all countries, Russia will also get back on track, Europe will produce more and more food, and the demand for food for us and the United States will become less and less. And our food prices are already low, and the United States is bound to be unlucky......"

"What does the bad luck of the Americans have to do with us?" When Yang Rui heard this, he suddenly had an idea: Since the world's grain is dominated by China, the United States, and Russia, is it possible to pull Comrade Iron and Steel to speculate -- first pile up grain prices, and then quickly lower them. Let the American farmers die first; Then release negative news such as floods and droughts, push up food prices again, and then make another roller coaster, and let American farmers die; And then come back. Anyway, they will buy a handful every once in a while, and the Americans will not dare to follow, and the world food price will be in their own hands.

To do this you need: First, the planting information is confidential. There is no problem with this comrade steel, and there are churches in every county in the country. There are some risks; Second, the peasants must obey discipline and obey commands, and there is no problem in both countries; Third, the merchant fleet, foreign sales channels, and even alliances with European Jewish bankers are basically no problem; Fourth, the most critical point is that there must be enough price advantage to withstand the discount loss that American farmers cannot afford. Only in this way can the United States be driven out of the world grain market, but the Soviet Union is much closer to Europe, which is the richest market, where there is often a shortage of food supply and demand.

As soon as the evil thought appeared in his mind, Yang Rui couldn't hear what Du Yaquan was saying at all, and it took him a while before he came back to his senses and asked, "How much difference was our food price before the war with that of the United States?" ”

After Du Yaquan finished speaking at length, Yang Rui didn't have it at all, and now he asked him what he said before, he had to admit that he was unlucky, and after a deep sigh of relief, he said again: "We are not the same as American crops, and now we can only compare wheat and corn." Before the war, the price of wheat in the United States was generally between $0.8 and $0.9 per bushel, which translates to $30 to $34 per ton; Corn is 0.6 to 0.7 bushels, which translates to $23 to $27 per ton. Compared with China, the wholesale price of wheat is around 50 yuan, while the price of corn is cheaper, not more than 40 yuan. Between the Chinese dollar and the US dollar, in terms of gold content, it can be said that it is two to one, and from this point of view, compared with the United States, our food prices have room of five to ten dollars. ”

"Five to ten dollars?" Yang Rui is undeniable. "So what is our freight rate to Europe? And what is the freight rate for Americans to reach Europe? What did the merchant ship pull back in the past? ”

"Before the war, our freight rate to the United States was five dollars, which was stained with the light of the ship, and to England it cost two pounds, according to the pre-war pound dollar comparison, this was ten dollars, and now the pound has depreciated, if the freight rate is still two pounds, it is eight dollars. The Americans were closer to Europe than we did, and the freight rate to Britain before the war was about four dollars...... "As soon as Du Yaquan settled the account, he directly wiped out the space of five to ten dollars, and the price of grain to Europe was only a little cheaper than that of American grain, or even not cheap, so what kind of competitiveness was there."

Du Yaquan's side was not finished, and Chen Zhenxian of the Ministry of Agriculture added: "If it is wheat, it is also necessary to consider that the flour yield of US wheat is 75 percent, while the flour yield of wheat in China is 70 percent, and the ...... between."

"Okay," Yang Rui interrupted Chen Zhenxian's words, "It's okay to sell grain to other allies!" If it's okay, you can go back. ”

"It's a ......" Du Yaquan knew that he hadn't gotten to the point for a long time, Yang Rui was impatient, and he hurriedly smiled: "This price is on par with the Americans when it is shipped to Europe, but the problem is that as long as the yield comes up, farmers can accept lower prices; In addition, the current grain is not completely transported by water, and a lot of grain is transported by rail. The railway is too expensive, Qingdao to Jinan, the freight rate is four Chinese yuan. It's just over 300 kilometers.

We expect production to continue at the current rate. Sooner or later, the wholesale price of wheat will fall to the 40 yuan mark, and a nationwide water transport network is being built. In a few years, the freight rate will fall, especially with containers, and there will be no need for much loading and unloading fees; And the preservative, those losses that are reduced in rush and transportation can save several dollars per ton. In the long run, sooner or later, the price of food shipped to Europe will be five dollars or more cheaper than that of the Americans.

In the past, when we had meetings, we were always worried that there would be a conflict between China and the United States over industrial products, but I don't think that was the case at all, and it would be the agricultural products of the two countries that would have a conflict. When we double our food production, no. Before it doubled, the Americans were going to make a fuss. This is tantamount to driving American grain out of Europe, and some countries in the Americas will also be occupied by our grain. ”

Du Yaquan finally said what he thought, and several people who came with him nodded frequently, and Chen Zhenxian said: "Prime Minister, maybe in ten years, the grain and cotton in the United States can only grow and sell themselves, and our products have more advantages than him." ”

China's grain has dried up over America's grain. In Yang Rui's cognition, this is simply a crooked way. In his letter, China's agricultural advantage lies only in labor-intensive agriculture, and fruit is one of them - the annual harvest of American oranges. The Mexicans on the other side are about to cross the border, and the Mexicans will go back after picking oranges. Even fruit picking has to travel across borders, which shows how expensive labor-intensive agriculture is in the United States. China is the opposite. In rural areas, the fields are either barren or converted to fruit trees. There is no intention of growing food at all.

However, in this era, because the population is only more than 400 million. The per capita arable land is several times higher than that of later generations, and agriculture is only a rudimentary form of mechanization, and automation cannot even see a shadow, and the situation is completely different from a hundred years later. Yang Rui couldn't figure out what the reason was, but when Du Yaquan said this, he felt that things were really promising.

"You'd better come up with a detailed and rigorous report first. As for the sale of grain to the Allies, it was done immediately. Yang Rui commanded.

"But now that the farmers in the United States can't sell their grain, they are going bankrupt, and our grain is pouring into Europe, especially at this level, I'm afraid they will jump off the wall." Dua Springs.

"Unless he continues to take out loans, who will buy wheat that is four times more expensive?" Yang Rui said. "You can organize the transportation of people and bring me all the gold of the Allies. If the Americans dare to do something or something, don't they still have the Japanese Navy, and they spent hundreds of millions of yen to hire them as bodyguards, and they always have to have some effect. ”

The prime minister had made up his mind to sell grain, and Du Yaquan and the others had no worries anymore and left to plan. After they left, Yang Rui didn't have the heart to deal with other things, and just now Du Yaquan mentioned that there would be a conflict with agricultural products, which made him vigilant.

To revitalize agriculture with science and technology, and then take agriculture as the leader, drive the downstream food, textile and other light industries, and at the same time pull the upstream heavy industry, chemical industry and infrastructure construction, this is the original consideration of how to build China's industry chose the route. Over the years, everything has gone very smoothly, especially now, with so much money from the European war, investment in education, investment in infrastructure, investment in agriculture, and agricultural science and technology are increasing, and in the foreseeable future, even without the dividends of World War II, this country will become a world power.

It's just that because the path of industrialization is exactly the same as that of the Americans, and it is shorter and less prepared. This makes the economic structure of China and the United States exactly the same. When the time comes, the Americans will export grain, and China will also export grain; The United States exports home appliances and automobiles, and China also exports home appliances ......and automobiles, and the output is not homogeneous, but it is the same.

Americans have a first-mover advantage, but the Chinese have a labor cost advantage, two or three dollars a month to be elated Chinese, a day to have five dollars of Ford workers, this difference in labor costs, Yang Rui and Xu Huafeng thought at that time that it would be reflected in industrial products, but now the real feedback is on agricultural products, what is the situation, China and the United States are rare to really die?

Under the big plaque of the reincarnation of good and evil in Yin'an Palace, Yang Rui, who had been thinking for a long time, suddenly wanted to go and see the aircraft carrier. (To be continued......)

PS: Note 111: Economic Statistics of the Major Capitalist Countries 1848-1960, p32

Note 112: Unless otherwise noted, the wholesale prices for commodities in the United States (to a lesser extent in Britain and Germany) are from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Note 113: Donald. Vorster, Dust Storms: The Great Plains of Southern America, 1930, p114

Note 114: "U.S. Economic Diplomacy with Europe 1919-1934", p76. Due to the prolongation of the war, the original loan of 3.2 billion 54516115 was estimated at $4 billion

Note 115: Ibid., p109