When the Japanese were discussing the Boxer Rebellion, Yang Rui, who had already returned to Yin'an Palace, was also looking at the official charter rate of ships in the United States, from the monthly charter price of $700 for merchant ships over 2,500 tons, to the $600 for merchant ships over 8,000 tons. Now the Entente countries are short of ammunition, materials, and food, and the actual freight rate is much higher than the income from chartering ships.

Since the freight rate is so high, the Americans have also begun to prepare for large-scale shipbuilding, but in a hurry, even the simple question of building iron ships or wooden ships cannot be determined by the ship yard, so the huge shipbuilding plan is only on paper and cannot be implemented immediately. In this way, even by the end of the war, the Americans would not be able to build many ships. In order to cope with the shortage of merchant ships, the US Wartime Shipping Institute decided to first transfer cargo ships of more than 1,000 tons from domestic river ships for sea transport, and judging from the current data, more than 560 river ships can be requisitioned, totaling 2.3 million tons.

With the original 2 million tons, 600,000 tons of leased ships from the Netherlands and other countries, and 2.3 million tons of river ships, the Americans organized a merchant fleet of nearly 5 million tons in just a few months, which immediately exceeded the number of merchant ships owned by either country in China and Japan. At present, the world's merchant ships are all in the hands of Britain, the United States, China and Japan, and Britain and the United States have many old ships and a large base; And China and Japan have a lot of shipbuilding and fast launching. This year is more than 8 million tons of Britain and the United States 11 million tons compared with China and Japan, but every year with the consumption of British merchant ships and the launch of Chinese and Japanese merchant ships, the end of next year will be 6 million tons of Britain and the United States against 11 million tons of China and Japan, and this is the time when China and Japan control freight rates. Unfortunately, this is nearing the end of the war.

Look at the plan of the American ship yard. By the year after next or later, the United States will have 12 million tons of merchant ships. The corresponding is that: The number of U.S. shipyards has expanded from 61 to 341, and the number of launching slides has increased to more than 1,200. From now on, until the end of the war at the end of next year, the CIA, the Ministry of Industry, and the shipping company have finally given a specific shipping revenue forecast, that is, this year's shipping revenue will be as high as 6 billion Chinese yuan; Next year, if the war continues until the end of the year, then because China and Japan control seventy percent of the world's merchant ships, shipping revenue will not be less than 6 billion Chinese yuan;

The year after. At the end of the war, the 5.5 million tons of merchant ships in his own hands, as well as the 2.5 million tons and 8 million tons of merchant ships ordered by Japan, could be sold to Britain 6 million tons -- he was a big shipping country, and now he was beaten to pieces by German submarines, and even if the war ended, he still had to buy merchant ships to enrich the merchant fleet. These 6 million tons of merchant ships are expected to sell at a discount of 300 Chinese yuan a ton, and here it is another 1.8 billion Chinese yuan. Of course, after all, the war is over, and the price may be lower, but no matter how much. It's always a billion or more revenue.

Shipping revenues this year and next will total 12 billion Chinese dollars, or $6 billion, or 1.5 billion pounds. It's not much; Plus there is a Japanese penny, and the result given by Tobe is. Of this 12 billion, China can get 8.3 billion. Japan took 3.7 billion; With the addition of the previous 1.2 billion, China and Japan each received 700 million and 500 million of them, that is to say, this time the shipping partnership between the two countries, China and Japan received 9 billion and 4.2 billion respectively.

Based on the cost of a merchant ship of 500 Chinese yuan per ton, the cost of 8.4 million tons of merchant ships is 4.2 billion Chinese dollars, and after deducting the apportioned operating costs, the real profit of shipping is about 4.5 billion Chinese dollars. If the 6 million tons of merchant ships can be sold for 1.8 billion Chinese dollars, then the shipping revenue will be 6.3 billion Chinese dollars.

In the case of shipping, the cumulative profit in four years was 3.1 billion yuan in iron and steel, 1.1 billion yuan in shipbuilding, 800 million yuan in nitric acid, 700 million yuan in tungsten sand, 600 million yuan in munitions, and 240 million yuan in airplanes, automobiles, leathers, medicines, pig bristles, and other items, and a total profit of 12.84 billion Chinese dollars after a European war.

Yang Rui counted this number several times, and finally made sure that he was not wrong, and he didn't sleep all night when he saw so much money. Otherwise, what worries him is that of the 12.8 billion, in addition to the gold collected from medicines, pig bristles, tungsten sand, and some munitions, the remaining 10 billion yuan, except for the 500 tons of steel used in non-shipbuilding use, which received silver, the remaining 9 billion yuan or so are all British and American paper money, and it is estimated that the pound sterling accounts for 40 percent of it, the dollar accounts for 60 percent of it, and the franc accounts for only a small part.

Although it was the era of the gold standard, all countries in Europe banned the outflow of gold, and after the declaration of war in the United States, it also banned the outflow of gold.

With a grudge against paper money, Yang Rui summoned Yu Huizu and Du Yaquan from the Ministry of Commerce and Commerce as soon as he went to work the next day, and Zhang Kun from the National Bank of China came over, and said as soon as he opened his mouth: "I don't want to collect too much paper money, think of a way to get more gold!" ”

Everyone knows Yang Rui's preference for gold, and the Ministry of Household and Commerce have tried every means to collect gold, but even so, the treasury is now less than 1,500 tons of gold. Du Yaquan, who was in charge of selling goods, smiled bitterly: "Actually, this Europe now has more gold from the French, but he is holding it to death; The United States used to be able to exchange for gold, but the problem was that after he declared war on Germany, the outflow of gold stopped. ”

"Then grab some too." Yang Rui said, "In addition to airplanes, cars, tractors, and other indispensable raw materials, you can always collect some gold, right?" 100 million Chinese dollars is 75 tons of gold, and now that so many goods have been sold, how can there not even be 2 billion Chinese dollars in gold reserves. ”

Yang Rui used sales to presume gold reserves, Yu Huizu smiled and said, "Actually, even if you count the gold of the people in the world, it is only about 15,000 tons [Note:], and it is already luck that we can get more than 1,400 tons from scratch." ”

"But the Americans got more." Yang Rui seemed to be a little unreasonable, "Everyone sells goods, you can think of a way." Starting to issue Halo this year, we need more gold. There is also silver, don't look at his high price now, but no matter how high it is, there is no gold to exchange, so it is better to throw it away as soon as possible. ”

After the European war, domestic silver also increased sharply, and it is expected that there will be 3 billion taels after the war, plus more than 9 billion banknotes collected, these are hot money that will be used up as soon as possible. Needless to say, silver. Everyone has the idea that once China moves to the gold standard. Then the world will only be left with Mexico and India to use silver, and the price of silver will definitely fall sharply; And the dollar and the pound. With the depreciation of the dollar under the world economic crisis in 1933 as the end, there is still a fifteen-year shelf life, and if it is not used up by then, it will depreciate by more than half.

Three billion taels of silver, plus more than 9 billion yuan of foreign exchange, excluding the part used for domestic use, in order to prevent inflation, the other more than 10 billion yuan will be spent within 15 years, which is the rhythm of spending 7 or 8 billion yuan a year. But now that the annual trade deficit is less than 200 million Chinese dollars, when will this money be spent? Maybe you can buy machines, but does China need so many machines? Tractors, cars, engines, airplanes, these can be built by themselves, China only needs machine tools and various technologies, but even so, I still don't know what to buy.

Since gold reserves cannot be raised, the next thing to discuss is the disposal of hot money. The three billion taels of silver were earned by the original and the private sector in the past four years, and the other 12.8 billion Chinese dollars were earned by the government. Convert silver to Chinese dollars, and that's 17 billion. In addition to the 5 billion Chinese yuan needed for domestic circulation, the remaining 12 billion yuan is hot money, and fortunately, this money is basically controlled by the government. Unlike in later generations, most of them were owned by private companies, and they had to settle foreign exchange in China to exchange for the equivalent amount of RMB, resulting in a sharp depreciation of the RMB. In the end, it had to be 'digested' by the real estate market.

This 12 billion hot money can now be regarded as the country's overseas investment, but this investment only has a freshness period of 15 years. Fifteen years have passed, if you still have cash. There will be a large-scale shrinkage and depreciation; But if it is turned into an overseas asset, how will World War II be fought? Once it is targeted by the United States, it will be like Germany's current situation, and the overseas assets of up to 1.3 billion pounds will become a meal on the plate of Britain, France, the United States and other countries.

does not understand the general trend of history in the future like Yang Rui, Yu Huizu, Du Yaquan, Zhang Kun and others do not take spending money seriously, Du Yaquan said: "It is true, there are a lot of problems in spending money, don't you want to make agriculture scientific, transportation facilitation, and education popularization, we simply don't collect taxes, recuperate for ten years, use this 12 billion in these ten years, and spend 1.2 billion a year......

Du Yaquan really doesn't understand finance, he said this not only Yang Rui, Yu Huizu and Zhang Kun shook their heads, but fortunately, his family knew about his own affairs, he only stopped halfway through what he said. Yu Huizu said: "When the country was founded, the country's gross national product was about 8 billion taels, and by last year, it should be 10.5 billion taels, with an annual growth rate of 5 percent. At this rate, the average annual increase in the money supply over a period of 10 years, minus the income from exports, is about 200 million to 300 million, so that output and money coincide and do not cause inflation. But the problem is that this 12 billion yuan is not spent in a year, so there is a large amount of spare money in hand every year, and if this money is only kept in hand and cannot be used, the loss is still not small. ”

"The annual growth rate of 5 percent is too low, so let's adjust it to 7 percent." Yang Rui said. "But the price of food and other necessities must be controlled, and even garlic must not be leaked."

Yu Huizu and others, who don't know what 'garlic you are ruthless', are a little impressive, but since Yang Rui said that the annual GDP growth is set at 7 percent, it will be set at 7 percent, although it is now the era of gold and silver in kind rather than the era of legal tender that can be printed if you want to, but what you have in hand is foreign exchange, and the growth is not enough to be driven by the government's fixed investment.

"Aren't the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Industry in need of money?" Du Yaquan offered a second strategy, "Fifteen acres of cultivated land in agriculture, two taels per mu, here is four billion Chinese yuan; There is also the Ministry of Transportation, didn't it say that the national transportation network should be repaired, this is 3.8 billion taels, about 5 billion Chinese yuan, here it is 9 billion, and some other investments, these more than 10 billion will be spent soon. ”

After Du Yaquan said this, Yu Huizu stroked his beard and smiled: "Qiu Fan, if only it were really that simple." Of this 12 billion yuan, in addition to the annual proportional investment in fixed assets, such as the repair of transportation networks, the rest can only be spent abroad, not at home. The transportation network of 3.8 billion taels is the price of our own repair, if it is replaced by foreigners, the cost is estimated to be doubled, this money really has to be spent like this, it is a waste.

As for the four billion yuan in agriculture, this is just a numbers game, and the money lent out at the beginning of the year will be recovered when the grain is harvested at the end of the year, and this is actually just a credit sale of farm tools, seeds, and fertilizers, and the bank is in the middle to guarantee the peasants. As long as the banknotes have a credit guarantee, they don't need much money at all, and later the peasants get richer and richer, so it doesn't matter what kind of loan or not. I now think that the old landlords and wealthy people are hiding gold and silver as a way to avoid inflation. ”

Yu Huizu laughed, and Zhang Kun said. "No matter how the money is spent, a large part of it will be stuck in the accounts. Nowhere to go. The best way to do this is to invest abroad, but that involves foreign interference. Our navy must be revitalized. If the navy is in difficulty, it can only buy the treasury bonds of Britain, the United States, France, and other countries, so as to ensure revenue in drought and flood. ”

The word national debt gave Yang Rui goosebumps, didn't the trillions of later generations buy American national bonds? It was the grandson who borrowed the money, and it was the grandfather who owed the money, and even though it was now physical money, he didn't want to do it.

"Let's set up an international investment company to run the money. The principle is: you can do some short-term investment business externally, but financial investment with a maturity of more than 15 years should be avoided as much as possible; Large-scale investments abroad require not only attention to local risks and horizons. For non-financial investments, the payback period should also be set at less than 20 years; Then there is the fastest depreciation of silver in hand, which is the first thing to be spent, and the dollar and the pound will also be spent in ten years; If you really can't spend it, then exchange it for real assets, but it is better to choose the investment location in the Nanyang area, such as rubber and tin ore, or any other assets.

Yang Rui programmatically expounded on the issues to be paid attention to in the use of these funds. After speaking, he said: "These are just ways to maintain value, and domestic construction needs money, like transportation, agriculture, and industry, although these need to use this money." Not many are available. The transportation network is 5 billion Chinese dollars, and the investment of 3 billion Chinese dollars can be operated on its own, and there is also domestic tax support. There is no need to spend extra money at all; The same is true for agriculture, mainly because it is difficult to start up. As long as there is a certain amount of funds to drive it into a positive cycle, the rest of the things will come naturally;

And then there's industry. What we want to buy now is just a machine tool, and now the world's machine tool output value is more than 100 million US dollars, minus our own use, and the export is 30 million or 40 million US dollars, which is really not enough for us to spend. Even with the addition of large equipment such as blast furnaces and hydraulic presses, we don't have much to spend. There is also one of the biggest questions, who will sell the things made when you buy so many machine tools back? You can't just buy it with the government's money and give it to the people. It is the market, not the capital, that determines the size of the industry. But we can lend money to countries where we can afford to buy our industrial products, but they need to have some reliable collateral. ”

When Yang Rui said this, he immediately thought of the two khanates of Central Asia and Persia, which could lend money with confidence because they had collateral - natural gas and oil; And the USSR could also lend, I don't know what Comrade Stalin used as collateral.

The leader walked slightly, but his fifteen and twenty years only shocked Yu Huizu and Zhang Kun's hearts. Based on their understanding of Yang Rui, this is not a random number, no matter how you look at it, it is a prediction that the international financial community will undergo drastic changes in 15 years, so the cash must be spent within 15 years; What would endanger China's non-financial investments if they were set to invest in non-financial assets within 20 years? Thinking of the last sentence of investing in Nanyang, Yu Huizu and Zhang Kun suddenly thought of Germany's confiscated overseas assets, and their minds were confused: Could it be that there will be another big war in 20 years?

When Yu Huizu and Zhang Kun were confused, Yang Rui happened to be thinking about Comrade Stalin, and he was also thinking about it when the two of them were stunned.

"I think this money will be spent on these things." Yang Rui said, "First, buy or invest in various resources. For example, nickel ore is controlled by Britain in Canada, and the price will fall back to before after the European war to see if it can be bought in large quantities; The same is true of oil, which now costs $4 a barrel, compared to $1.4 a barrel before the war. The establishment of salt cavern storage in China, with the world's annual output of 300 million tons of oil, as long as it can be put down, it is not impossible to buy tens of millions of dollars every year; There are also intellectual copper mines, Indian monazite, African uranium mines, and the Ministry of Industry and laboratories can list a list of things to see what is worth buying, and as long as it is valuable, buy it.

This is the thing, and then the person. The plan made by the department is to send 4,000 international students every year, 10 million taels per year, I think it can be increased, provided that there are schools abroad that can be studied, if there are 50,000 international students a year, it will need 100 million US dollars; This is just a student, in fact, studying abroad can not be limited to students, domestic technicians, teachers, factory owners, traders, and even Qinglou**, as long as they are not going to play ......"

Yang Rui said this, and suddenly smiled, "Actually, we can't really play it, anyway, going abroad around the world will help their knowledge, and after coming back, they can effectively use what they have seen and learned in China." Then you can let them go out and have a look, or call it a business trip. All walks of life across the country. There are at least hundreds of thousands of people, even if half of them go out. 1,500 dollars a person, that's also 300 million or 400 million dollars; And those Confucian students, don't they cling to Confucius, and they can also send some bold ones out to see what kind of world is outside.

In addition to sending out, you can also invite in. Since the United States declared war, it was only a matter of time before Germany was defeated, and the whole of Europe ran out of money. If we have foreign exchange, then we can bring in people who have skills and talents. Or to the school, or to the factory. However, this is mainly scientific and technological talents, and social science talents do not need to be invited.

In addition, scientific research is extremely expensive, so we should not only increase investment in our laboratories, but also invite well-known scholars and professors from all over the world to come to China to do research. The honor is theirs, but the scientific and technological achievements and the students he brought with him are ours. There are so many geniuses in the world, who always have to survive because of the embarrassment of reality, so let's give them a chance. ”

It seems that when it comes to excitement, Yang Rui said: "I simply take out half or one-third of this money as a scientific research fund." Doesn't the foreigner have an explosives award? Then we will also set up a prize, and the amount of bonus and influence will exceed that dynamite award. As for the hiring of talents from all over the world, we can focus on Shanghai, Nanjing, and Hangzhou. Completely renovate the urban facilities of the three places, establish super-large-scale research institutes, and set up various laboratories. Then hire European and American talents with high salaries and high salaries. Which who, what is it called Tesla's. This kind of person who spends money like running water can be invited in. ”

Yang Rui said farther and farther. The recorded Li Zilong's pen is like flying, but fortunately, his imagination will end after a while. Yu Huizu, who heard his tirade, said for a long time: "Actually, this is the cost of sending all walks of life to go abroad for inspection, and then it costs money to invite foreigners all over the world, and the rest doesn't cost much." After the establishment of the international investment company, this money must have increased in value, and at an annual interest rate of 4%, there was nearly 500 million Chinese dollars in interest that year. I think we can follow your idea first, and then hold an enlarged meeting to see if there is no other way to spend money. Again, what about Central Asia, are we going to fight with the Russians after the armistice in Europe? ”

"Over there......" Yang Rui's thoughts couldn't help but drift from Tesla to Kazakhstan, "If you can, you won't fight, but you want to fight." ”

"How much will it cost to fight over there?" Yu Huizu asked again.

"Now that there is money, the Western Regions Railway can continue to repair the line, and after occupying Central Asia, it will go out of Alashankou and build a railway that bypasses the Aral Sea and is more than 3,200 kilometers long to Tehran, Persia. That's right! Forget to say that immigrants also use a lot of money, according to the Russian immigrants to Siberia before, each family along the road free of charge and lodging tickets, to the place to pay a settlement fee of 100 rubles, plus a pair of bulls, seeds, farm tools, each household needs about 500 yuan, we don't want to send cattle, just send tractors. If the immigrants are 5 million, it will cost 2.5 billion Chinese dollars. Yang Rui answered the question.

Yang Rui rashly came out with an immigrant of five million, Yu Huizu was startled, and he said, "These five million are just in the northwest, or does it include the northeast and the outer northeast?" ”

"To the northwest, of course." Yang Rui said. "If you don't talk about Central Asia, let's just say that there are almost no Han people in the entire Western Regions Province, so how can you not immigrate? Five million is not too small for me, and it would be better to have 10 million people fill in. Don't worry that there is no land over there, there is a lot of land over there, and instead of starving to death in the pass, it is better to go there and enjoy the blessings. ”

"But the people have just divided the land, are they willing to go?" Du Yaquan didn't want the immigration plan to be so big, and he was taken aback.

"How much land can be divided into land? Not to mention that in some places, it is necessary to return farmland to forests, lakes and reservoirs, even those that have been divided into land are only a little better than before, and many places still do not have enough food and clothes. If the people really want to live a well-off life, they have to immigrate outside the customs. The northwest is farther away than the northeast, but we can exempt them from taxes for 30 years, and allow them to have children hard, anyway......" Yang Rui waved his hand, "I don't care, whether it is the quota of the peasant associations in various places, or the lottery is good, those poor farmers without pants will report to me, and all of them will immigrate to the northwest, even if I decide this matter for a while." (To be continued......)

PS: Note: "Monetary Theory. Volume II: The Theory of the Application of Money – Keynes, 1986. P273