The baton in Chen Hanzhang's hand drew a big circle in the whole of Shandong, along with northern Jiangsu and Huaibei, and continued: "It is precisely from the situation of the deployment of enemy and our troops around the entire Dezhou battlefield. So No. 1, since the Japanese army began to shrink its forces on the east and west flanks of the Texas battlefield, I have always thought that the Japanese army's move was trying to cover up. ”

"The line from Linqing to Xiajin is the connecting part of the two forces of our army's entire defensive line. The Japanese army, which has always been good at rounding the junction of the two armies and looking for a breakthrough point, will definitely not give up such an important goal so easily. I think they are definitely consciously using their own deployment adjustments to mobilize our army's defense system in Texas and prepare for its next counteroffensive. ”

"It is true that at the moment, the Japanese army in Shandong is ostensibly insufficient in forces north of the Yellow River. However, on the front line of Jinan, Tai'an, and Yanzhou south of the Yellow River, it deployed two heavy troops of divisions. In Xuzhou, at the junction of Sulu, there was also a division that was fully equipped during the battle, and even in the chaos of the Shandong battlefield, it was not dispatched, and always maintained control of the Jinpu railway from Yanzhou to Xuzhou. ”

"The Japanese troops deployed on the front line of Jinan, Tai'an, and Yanzhou, although they were not put into the Hebei battlefield. However, it relied on its absolute superiority in strength and firepower, cooperated with the Japanese troops stationed in northern Jiangsu, and through continuous operations. It has regained control of the Yanzhou-Xuzhou section of the railway from the hands of the troops of the Shandong Military Region. And reopened the highway from Yanzhou to Linyi and from Xuzhou to Taierzhuang. ”

At the same time, with the end of the first phase of the battle, the Japanese army did not carry out any major operations along the Jiaoji Railway. However, in several ports on the Jiaodong Peninsula, the number of troops was greatly increased. In particular, the line from Yantai to Longkou, north of the Jiaoji Railway, has now increased to the strength of one division plus one detachment. ”

However, this part of the Japanese army is deployed on the line from Yantai to Shouguang, and it seems that it can go south at any time to cooperate with the Japanese army in Qingdao and reopen the Jiaoji Railway. But in fact, the position it poses can be eastern, southern, or northern, which means that they can devote themselves to where they need to be at any time. ”

"The Japanese army is located in a position to the north that can cross the Yellow River at any time, and the direct ** army is on the flank of the entire battlefield. And echoing with the Japanese army in Jinan, it controlled the defense of Jinan and the entire Jinan section of the Yellow River, and formed a concave defense system with the Japanese army in Jinan. Its deployment seems to be aimed at the Jiaoji Railway, but in fact, the position of the Japanese army deployed in this department is quite large. ”

"But No. 1, we have not yet detected the Japanese army and added new troops to the Shandong battlefield. However, I believe that the current situation does not show that the Japanese army's next battle plan is still ready to adopt a defense-oriented posture in Shandong.

"The traffic in Shandong is quite convenient, there are not only Weihai, Qingdao, Yantai ports, but also the Jinpu railway line and the Jiaoji railway, and the nearby Sulu border area and the Longhai railway. Moreover, if the Japanese army wanted to, then the canals and rivers below Jining that could still be navigable could also become an important channel for their supplies and transportation of soldiers. As long as they want to increase their troops, they can quickly increase their troops in a short period of time. ”

"Although the Jiaoji Railway has now been cut off by the troops of the Shandong Military Region, and the route east of Yidu has been basically controlled. However, the troops of the Shandong Military Region are not yet capable of fighting for or controlling several ports. Especially now that Laizhou Bay has been civilized, the Japanese army has resumed the use of Longkou Port. At the same time, it firmly controlled Laizhou, west of Longkou, and could also land in the port as a material when necessary. ”

"Along the Jiaoji Railway east of Yidu and in the southern part of the Jiaodong Peninsula, there were originally two independent mixed brigades, as well as the strength of one brigade-level detachment that was reinforced one after another. After withdrawing to Qingdao, excluding the casualties of the previous battle with the Shandong Military Region, and adding the total number of troops left behind, there is still about one and a half brigades and regiments left. ”

"These Japanese troops in Qingdao, coupled with the cooperation of a small number of naval ships, have no problem holding on to the urban area and port of Qingdao. But if you want to attack without receiving large-scale reinforcements, you don't have the strength to do so. In other words, the forces deployed by the Japanese army on the Jiaodong Peninsula have become a sinking situation. ”

However, through the analysis of the entire Shandong battlefield and the overall situation in the surrounding areas, although the Japanese army has put on a posture against the troops of our Shandong Military Region along the Jiaoji Railway in the entire deployment, it has formed a situation of attacking from the north, south and west from three sides. But it is precisely because of this deployment of the Japanese army that I think the Japanese army has actually given up, at least for a short time, the attempt to reopen the Jiaoji Railway. ”

"Because according to the current situation along the Jiaoji Railway, the reopening of the Jiaoji Railway is bound to mobilize a large number of troops. At the same time, even if the Jiaoji Railway is opened, but it cannot completely wipe out the troops of our Shandong Military Region, in order to ensure the smooth operation of the Jiaoji Railway, at least two divisions and regiments are needed. ”

"This is not an easy thing for the Japanese army, which is not very favorable to the situation around the Shandong battlefield at present. Two divisions is definitely not a small number for the overstretched Japanese army. What's more, according to the situation of the Shandong battlefield this time, once the garrison is dispersed, it will not be so easy to concentrate it. ”

"At least until the current crisis in northern and northwestern Shandong is resolved, they do not have enough troops or energy to open up the Jiaoji line. Even if the eastern direction of Henan is calmed down, they do not have the strength to open up the Jiaoji Railway until they get enough reinforcements. ”

"The Shandong Military Region fought very intelligently and wonderfully in this battle. They make full use of the advantages of their troops. Take advantage of the fact that the Japanese army in the Jiaodong Peninsula does not have many troops and is highly dispersed. With concentration to disperse, divide and encircle, encircle and send reinforcements, the focus is on the Jiaoji railway line.

Not only did it achieve brilliant results, but it also completely paralyzed the Jiaoji Railway, and pinned down two Japanese divisions in Shandong, which were never able to participate in the battle in order to ensure the safety of the Jinpu line. And made Qingdao Port, the largest port of the Japanese army in Shandong, unable to play a role before it was frozen. It can be said that the Shandong Military Region has indeed done its best and played a considerable role in cooperating with us in this operation. ”

"But as long as Longhai Road is still there, even if the Jiaoji Railway is not opened, as long as the Jinpu Line between Jinan and Xuzhou is unblocked. The Japanese army can also guarantee that it can quickly mobilize a large number of heavy troops to participate in the war when needed. At the same time, compared with the Jiaoji Railway, the terrain around the Longhai Line is also more conducive to reducing the pressure on the Japanese army to ensure the safety of the Longhai Line. ”

"Lianyungang's transportation capacity is not as good as Qingdao's. However, using the Longhai Road as the main troop transport channel can also partially avoid the attack of our army's aviation and reduce the loss of transport troops. The most important thing is that for the current Japanese army, it is much better to defend one side than to defend two. ”

"Instead of paying a high price and spending a lot of time to reopen the Jiaoji railway. It is better to first use the Jiaoji Railway to attract the troops of our Shandong Military Region, and the addition of a division and regiment from Yantai to Weixian and the chaos in Qingdao will also put tremendous pressure on the troops of our Shandong Military Region. ”

"At least when they launch a full-front counterattack on the Hebei battlefield, they will attract the main force of our Shandong Military Region along the Jiaoji Railway, so that its main forces will not be able to cope with our army's operations in Hebei. I guess this is also the main reason why the Japanese army gave up temporarily and reopened the Jiaoji line. ”

"Because of this calculation, it is much more cost-effective than reopening the Jiaoji Railway. This is because the Japanese army cannot but consider whether this railway line, which is within the operational range of our air force's tactical attack aircraft, can still meet their needs even if it is reopened at the cost of time and casualties. ”

"And I don't think the Japanese army has reinforced, Shandong, in a short period of time, and reopened the Jiaoji line. In addition to the fact that the Longhai Railway is still unimpeded, the Jiaoji Line is too close to our army and can no longer play much of a role. It is even possible that in order to confuse us and disguise its true strategic intentions, it has not mobilized a large number of reinforcements in a short period of time. ”

"The most important thing is that around the entire perimeter of the battlefield, our troops seem to be quite numerous. There are more than 100,000 troops of the Shandong Military Region, in northern Jiangsu and Huaibei, as well as two divisions of our New Fourth Army. In addition to the troops of the Hebei-Shandong-Henan Military Region in the northwest, as well as our troops in the front of Dezhou, it seems that there are quite a few troops ready to be put into the battlefield at any time. ”

"However, judging from the battle situation some time ago, there are still certain deficiencies in the coordination of the overall strategy of the various units of our army in Jiangbei. When the first phase of the war was in full swing, the Jiaoji Railway and the Jinpu Line in Shandong were paralyzed by the troops of the Shandong Military Region and could not be used. ”

"Because the Japanese army was unable to concentrate enough forces in a short period of time to reopen the Jiaoji Railway. The Longhai Railway, which was turned to transport, transported troops to northern Henan, and arrived at the battlefield on the Pinghan Line to ensure that reinforcements could arrive quickly. It shows that the extent of the destruction of the Longhai Line has not reached the point where it is necessary to meet the needs of the battle ahead and interrupt the ability of the Japanese army to transport troops. ”

"During the entire battle, the Japanese army's movement of troops through the Longhai Road was basically unaffected. It is precisely because the Longhai Road is still generally open at the moment that the Japanese army dared not to mobilize too many troops in the current Shandong battlefield, but temporarily focused on eastern Henan. ”

"As far as the Japanese army is concerned, the various units of our army that participated in the war north of Huaibei are uneven in strength, strength, and even weapons and equipment, and have never carried out coordinated operations.

"If I were Okamura Ninji, I would now do my best to ensure that the Longhai Line and the Jinpu Railway are unblocked. Using the Jiaoji Railway as bait, the troops of the Shandong Military Region, which had made the most contribution in the combat cooperation with our army some time ago, were firmly attracted along the Jiaoji Line. And by taking advantage of the special topography of the Jiaodong Peninsula and the overall situation of the enemy and ourselves in Shandong at present, the main activity area of the Shandong Military Region was rigidly fixed within the scope of the Jiaodong Peninsula. ”

"No. 1, don't you think that the deployment of the Japanese army in the Shandong battlefield at the moment is quite strange, and it can even be said to be weird? It focuses on controlling the Jinpu Railway in the west, the Longhai Railway in the south, and the Yantai-Jinan Highway and the Qingdao-Linyi Highway in Jiaodong. ”

"If the area where it is stationed is connected by a line, it will be added to the terrain of the narrow peninsula of the Jiaodong Peninsula. Then the main force will be concentrated in Jiaoji Road, the section east of Yidu, around the main force of the Shandong Military Region, and even the entire Jiaodong Peninsula, forming a huge blockade circle. ”

"Moreover, this blockade area is not one, but the highway on the first line of Yidu, Linqu, Yishui, and Linyi is the middle line, and the east is the first blockade area, trapping the main force of the Shandong Military Region in the Jiaodong Peninsula. This line is a buffer zone and a second blockade area between the west and the Jinpu railway, cutting off the connection between the main force of the Shandong Military Region and the base areas in central and southern Shandong. ”