Chapter 90, robbing while the fire is hot
In fact, the agricultural crisis had been brewing for a long time, and the Russians' large-scale land reclamation movement was only a fuse for the outbreak of the agricultural crisis.
After entering the 19th century, agricultural production technology developed very rapidly, especially the rotation tillage technology was popularized in Europe, which greatly improved the utilization rate of land.
New tools of production were constantly being developed, ushering in the era of mechanized agriculture and allowing a farmer to cultivate more land.
During this period, agricultural production also began to increase substantially. Grain production in all countries is constantly breaking new records, taking Austria as an example, the growth rate of grain production has exceeded 3% for many years.
At the same time, the rate of population growth was far from keeping pace with the growth of grain production. The biggest benefit of increased food production is that it allows most people to be able to fill their stomachs. The increase in related agricultural and sideline products has also enriched the people's table.
As the population grows, so does the agricultural population. Although with the development of industry, a large number of rural laborers have become workers in the process of urbanization, and the proportion of the agricultural population is decreasing, but this number is still increasing.
In this context, in order to obtain more income, the people spontaneously began the reclamation movement. The Russians' large-scale opening up was not the first case, and it was Austria that made a bad start at first.
The agrarian revolution in Austria was not perfect, and the aristocracy still held a large amount of land, and in order to meet the needs of the peasants, the Austrian Balkans were thus developed.
Compared to 1850, the area of arable land in Austria itself has doubled. When the cake becomes bigger, the domestic land problem will naturally be solved.
Alexander II's campaign to open up the land was in fact to learn from the successful experience of Austria, and since the peasants needed land, they should increase the supply of land in the country. When there is more land, the contradiction will be solved.
In this way, food overcapacity is unstoppable. In the course of Austrian agricultural development, the Vienna government was also interested in guiding the population to grow cash crops.
For example, in Lombardy and Venetia, the rice conversion to mulberry program has also developed a supporting raw silk industry; Vineyard programs in Bosnia and Herzegovina, raisins and wine industries have also developed.
These planned developments are aimed at avoiding overcapacity of food as much as possible. However, this is also a drop in the bucket, and the total grain output is still rising.
Had it not been for the outbreak of the Russo-Prussian War, which also saw the outbreak of a civil war in the Russian Empire, which hit Russia's agricultural production hard, this crisis would have erupted a few years ago.
Without a major grain exporter, there has never been a food shortage in Europe, and now the Russians are back in the grain export market, and the production capacity is still better than in the past, and the market will not be able to hold on to it in any case.
There are only three countries in Europe that are not worried about the impact of food prices, and the British, of course, are one of them, otherwise they would not dare to light the fire.
Early in the industrialization of Britain, the industrial population had long since surpassed the agricultural population, and the share of agriculture in GDP was already very low.
The small-scale peasant economy collapsed in the land enclosure movement, the land is relatively centralized, the ability to resist risks is strong, and it is itself the world's largest importer of agricultural products, so it is naturally not afraid of the collapse of food prices.
The other two countries are Belgium and Monaco, the latter does not need to be known, just look at the land area, a small village near the sea, there is no agriculture at all.
Belgium is also a grain importer, the earliest industrial country on the European continent, industrially developed and with low agricultural output value, there is no need to worry about being impacted.
Purely economically, Austria undoubtedly suffered the most after the outbreak of the agricultural crisis. As the largest exporter of agricultural products, it has also been the most affected by the shock.
Counting the agricultural population alone, Austria's agricultural population is still more than half of the total population, and it is no problem to say that Austria is an agricultural country.
However, with the development of the economy, many peasants with relatively little land actually have strong laborers in their families to work in the cities.
Farming and working, they cannot be simply considered peasants, or workers. When it comes to statistics, both sides are often counted.
The proportion of the population in agriculture varies from province to province. In Bohemia, where the economy is more developed, the proportion of the population is less than 40 percent. In Hungary, where agriculture is developed, the proportion of the population is as high as 70 or 80 percent.
Among them, the proportion of migrant workers accounts for a considerable part. In some densely populated villages, as many as 90 percent of the young and strong labor force has moved to the cities.
The situation is even more serious in France, and the Italian region is seriously dragging its feet, especially in southern Italy. If we count the incomes of urban and rural areas, we will find that there is not much difference at all, and there will even be a situation where the income of urban workers is lower than that of peasants.
This does not indicate that the Italian region is agriculturally developed, but only proves that Italy's cities are economically depressed. Although these cities developed relatively early, the industrial development of Italy was very difficult due to resource constraints.
This is also the main reason why the Russians moved closer to the British and not to the French. The British could not be afraid of the impact on agriculture and dare to let Russian agricultural products in, but the French could not.
France already has a large agricultural population, and in Italy, where the economy is fragile, once food prices plummet and the market is hit, it will be a disaster.
"Food prices are very important, and the rebound from a rash impact on the markets of various countries is bound to be very dramatic.
Moreover, agriculture is different from industry, and even if there is overcapacity in the market, producers will not adjust it in a short period of time, and even production will continue to increase.
We can regulate the domestic market and guide people to reduce the amount of food they grow, but we can't affect other countries. At least we have no way to reduce the production of the Russian peasants, at most we can only bankrupt them.
Destroy the agricultural production markets of various countries and establish a monopoly in the field of agricultural exports. Frankly, I'm not optimistic that this project will succeed.
In this world, the area of land suitable for cultivation is too large, and the market for agricultural products is too small.
If nothing else, one need to know about the situation in Austrian Africa and you should know that Austria's grain production capacity can be increased several times at any time if needed.
The British, the Portuguese, the Dutch, the French, they also had no shortage of colonies to produce food. As soon as we find that we have signs of monopolizing the international grain export market, resistance is bound to occur. ”
Obviously, Prime Minister Felix is a sanity. Instead of supporting the great plan of the Ministry of Agriculture, it was more inclined to the protracted war proposed by the Chancellor.
With its advantages in production costs, Austria is destined to occupy an important position in the export market of agricultural products, as long as it is slowly grinded.
As for the potential largest competitor, the Confederate States of America, it is not a threat at all. In the face of profits, plantation owners will naturally make the right choice.
After the Civil War, the United States lost its hegemony in the international cotton market, and the grain planting industry developed.
Today, the Commonwealth of America is a wealthy agricultural country that continues to dominate the cotton market. Without being defeated and suppressed, there is no way for other cotton-producing regions to compete with them.
Who will be full of food and support, have huge profits and not take them, and run to jump into the giant pit of the grain export market?
That's right, now the international grain export market has turned into a giant pit. Until the winner is decided, food producers in various countries will not have a good time for a long time to come.
If Austria had the same privileged conditions as the Americans, it would not have stumbled on the grain market either. Now the Ministry of Agriculture is proposing to crush the agricultural production systems of European countries, which is actually the driving force of the great aristocracy.
On the surface, the profits in agriculture can no longer satisfy their appetite, and they want to monopolize the European food supply in order to obtain greater profits.
In fact, more people still want to abolish that series of taxes and increase their own income. Monopolizing the food supply in Europe, everyone knows that there is little hope, but everyone likes tax cuts!
Franz had met a lot of lobbyists beforehand, and it was nothing more than saying that the country was already rich and there was no shortage of income from agriculture, right......
Franz, as the spokesman for the interests of the aristocratic class, naturally could not refuse, but as an emperor, he had to consider the interests of the country, so this agricultural economic conference appeared.
The end result, of course, was that the government cut some of the tax revenues, made up for their losses in the turmoil, and appeased the aristocracy. Considering the wallet, it is not all exempt.
As for the peasant class, they were hitchhiking. Otherwise, how could the bureaucrats put forward policies that take care of their interests, such as tax cuts and grain price protection?
The reason doesn't matter, as long as the actual benefits can be obtained, then it is right. Today, Austrian peasants actually own more land than the aristocracy, about three-quarters of the land.
Unwittingly, the aristocracy became the political spokesmen of the peasant class. This result was completely unexpected by Franz.
Seeing that the meeting was almost underway, the radical plan of the Ministry of Agriculture had been rejected by the Cabinet, and Franz knew it was time to put on a show.
"The success rate of monopolizing Europe's food supply is too low, and there is something to be done to impact the agricultural production systems of various countries, but not too extreme.
The Chancellor's suggestion is not bad, we can start with the Anglo-Russian agreement, see how strong the Anglo-Russian friendship is, and by the way, clean up our old grain.
The Ministry of Agriculture's plan to take it back and redo it to make our presence as low as possible in this turmoil, and the cause of the collapse in food prices must be caused by the Russians.
Once the agricultural crisis is in full swing, there will certainly be a wave of peasant bankruptcies in Europe, and it will likely last for a long time.
The Colonial Ministry also needs to act immediately to pull people from European countries. The Russian Empire, in particular, will be the hardest hit by this crisis, and it is incumbent upon them as allies to help them eliminate hidden dangers. ”
Germany was the hardest hit by this agricultural crisis, during which millions of Germans emigrated to the United States.
Now the situation has changed, Austria has repeatedly solicited immigrants in the German region, and the situation of overpopulation has been resolved.
The best proof of this is that the Federal Empire of Germany, which has been established for so many years, has not yet exceeded 10 million in terms of total population, and is completely standing still.
If you look at their immigration data, you won't be surprised. From 1854 to the present, the population of the Federal Republic of Germany has left the population of 3.5 million.
After running out so much, the local population naturally can't grow. If so many people had stayed where they were, the population of the Federal Reich would have exceeded 16 million by now, based on the birth and death rates of the local population.
The wool here was almost sheared, and Franz reached out to the Russian Empire again. Even after losing the Russo-Prussian War and losing millions of square kilometers of territory, the Russian Empire still had a population of more than 74 million.
Franz has already played to stimulate fertility, and the birth rate in many parts of Austria is still lower than that of Russians. If it weren't for the lower mortality rate in Austria, the population growth rate would definitely not have kept up with the Russians.
According to the analysis of sociologists, the Russian Empire will continue to have a baby boom in the next few years, and the peasants who have acquired land will become vigorous, and the birth rate is expected to exceed 6%.
This data is not surprising, the average life expectancy of the Russian Empire is broken, and the demographic structure is mainly minors, teenagers, middle-aged, and there are very few people over forty-five years old.
From the analysis of the data, that is, more than half of the people in the Russian Empire are of childbearing age, such a high proportion of young and strong, coupled with the lack of entertainment activities among the people, they will go home and make people if they have nothing to do, and the birth rate of the population is naturally high.
Not only did the Russian Empire have a large number of childbearing populations, but almost every country had a high proportion of childbearing age, and most of them were above 40 percent.
After entering the 19th century, the population of Europe entered a period of rapid growth, and the population growth rate of all countries was very fast, and the slowest growth rate was the French, followed by Spain and Italy.
The main reason is that the economy, the peasants who do not have enough land can no longer afford to live. Not to mention workers, the high number of abandoned babies speaks volumes.
Of course, the government's policies are also an important factor in the low population growth rate of the three countries. In this day and age, it cannot be said that these policies are completely wrong.
The country's economic development is not improving, if the population growth is not suppressed, how can the extra people be raised?
The French are an exception, and their problem is not that they can't afford it, it's completely their own tossing.
The Russian Empire, with its bloody collapse of food prices and a high birth rate, will definitely be the hardest hit area, and if you stay in the country, families with many children will definitely not be able to afford it.
This time to emigrate, but in Alexander II relieved the pressure. No matter how reluctant the tsarist government was, it was impossible for them to prevent the people from leaving during this period.
In this regard, both sides also take what they need. For the tsarist government, which put stability first, it was able to eliminate internal hidden dangers, and the sequelae were not worth mentioning.