Chapter 91: Detonating the Crisis
After the conclusion of the Austrian Agricultural Economic Conference, the Vienna government announced to the outside world that part of the strategic grain reserves would be replaced before the new grain harvest.
This happens almost every year, but it is generally bought when international food prices are low and sold when prices are high.
This time was clearly an exception, and although it was not known how much grain the Vienna government was prepared to sell, there was a violent upheaval in the international grain market.
Grain prices on the international market have fallen by 9 per cent since the beginning of the year, and now they have plummeted by four points as a result of the sale by the Vienna government.
The capitalists of the pallet could no longer hold on, the Anglo-Russian deal had cost them dearly, and Austria had now made up for it.
Fortunately, the Vienna government announced a change, not a simple sell-off, otherwise the impact would have been even more dramatic.
At the London Grain Market, a middle-aged man dressed in a fancy costume learns prices in the market as usual.
The middle-aged man, named James, was a petty capitalist who owned a flour mill. Ever since the Anglo-Russian grain agreement was signed, he panicked.
Before the cheap grain of Russia arrived, the capitalists had a share of the matter. By the time James reacted, it was too late.
Of course, no matter how fast he reacts, this kind of fat is not something he is qualified to share. Originally, James bought local wheat for processing, but now it can't.
Domestic wheat is not so cheap, if the purchase price is lowered, it is estimated that he will be directly beaten out.
In search of a cheap source of food, James set his sights on the grain market. Affected by international food prices, it is true that the decline in grain prices here is much larger.
Suddenly seeing Austrian wheat appear on the billboard, James immediately stopped. You must know that in the past ten years, Austrian wheat has rarely appeared in the international market, and all that has appeared is flour that has been processed.
"Raul, what's wrong with this batch of grain, why is the price so low? I remember that Austria does not export wheat, so this is not smuggling, right? ”
James asked half-jokingly, no wonder he was surprised, the main thing was that it was not generally low, but low to the limit, a price beyond James's imagination.
"Mr. James, you're really good at laughing. If it's smuggling, we won't smuggle food! This kind of bulk commodity is inconvenient to transport, and the tax rate is low, so there is no need to risk it. ”
James ignored Raul's snort, grabbed a handful of wheat and looked at it, preliminarily judging that it was old grain, but this was not a reason why the price was so low.
"Don't give me nonsense, tell me what's wrong with this batch of grain? Don't tell me that you can take advantage of this kind of advantage, and it will be our turn! ”
Raul smiled indifferently and took out a newspaper and handed it to James.
"Mr. James, you can see that this batch of grain is all old grain. Not long ago, the Vienna government announced the replacement of grain reserves, and the old grain in the warehouses was sold at a discount.
You are also a professional, and you must know that the price of stale grain will be discounted. Now that this batch of grain has been stored for more than three years, the taste of processed flour will definitely have an impact.
In Austria, this grain is not usually processed into flour, but is used to make wine or processed into feed.
This time, the Vienna government released a large amount of grain from stockpiles, which flowed into the international market. The reason why it is so cheap is, of course, that the bureaucrats in London have done a good job.
The new grain of the Russians is so cheap, and these old grains can only be cheaper, otherwise who else will they sell to? ”
It can be seen that Raul also has a deep grudge against the London government. The Anglo-Russian trade agreement directly allows companies to sign contracts with Russians, and their business as middlemen will naturally disappear.
If they hadn't brought back the old Austrian grain for sale, they would have closed their doors. The price of grain on the international market is not as cheap as that of Russian grain.
James put down the wheat in his hand, grabbed another handful and rubbed it in his hand.
"Are you sure there's nothing wrong with the grain?"
Raul: "Of course, if there's a problem, I'll go to hell!" ”
Seeing that James was still hesitating, Raul added: "Mr. James, if you have any doubts, you can check it yourself."
This kind of opportunity to pick up bargains is rare, and no matter how low international food prices are in the future, it is unlikely that they will fall to this level.
You should know that if you sell at this price, farmers all over the world will go bankrupt. This has fallen below the cost price of production, just like that. ”
James was tempted, if there was no problem with the grain, it was just old grain, it was worth buying. Gritting his teeth, he seemed to have made up his mind.
"I want 30,000 tons, can it be cheaper?"
That's almost all James can muster, but he decides to gamble for the greater good.
The price of this grain was 15 percent cheaper than the grain that the London government had received from the Russians. On the surface, it is normal for there to be a difference between the prices of old grain and new grain, but in fact this price is still too cheap.
The deeper reasons James wisely did not explore. Anyway, as long as he can make a fortune, why does he care so much!
……
From May onwards, grain from Austria quickly appeared on the British market. As soon as this cheap grain appeared, it was sought after by unscrupulous capitalists.
Everyone is a smart person, and they know that this price is abnormal, and some even speculate that it is Austria's intention to sabotage the Anglo-Russian deal, but this does not prevent them from making a fortune.
Unlike other commodities, grain is not a problem to store for three or five years. Anyway, it's all old grain, and it's still old grain.
The taste deteriorates, and that's a minor problem. As long as the processed flour is cheaper, it will not be sold in the market.
It's good to be able to fill your stomach, and you still want to pursue the taste of food, and the average British person is not so arrogant.
Such a fanfare action naturally attracted the attention of the London government. However, this operation was not carried out by Austria alone, and a group of local British capitalists participated.
The dealings between the London government and the Russians are likewise not likely to benefit everyone, and many capitalists are still the ones who suffer from their interests.
If they don't take action, it will be very difficult for them to survive when there is a huge influx of Russian grain.
In this context, they naturally don't mind cooperating with Austria. It's all legal trade anyway, and the London government has no right to interfere.
They want to set restrictions to stop the dumping of Austrian grain. I'm sorry, but Congress was not going to have a good time, and the Benjamin cabinet was helpless to hold high the banner of free trade for the sake of their own interests.
The free trade system cannot be overturned, and this is at the heart of Britain's economic policy. Of course, this annoyance has little effect on Prime Minister Benjamin.
The results of a new round of elections have come in, and he is now a former prime minister. The concern is the Liberal Cabinet being formed, which is also a hole dug for rival William Yurt Gelston.
At the critical moment of the change, Benjamin's cabinet reacted passively, and after the completion of the transfer of power, it was too late for the London government to take measures.
In just a few months, Austria has dumped 8.5 million tons of rye, 3 million tons of wheat, 4.3 million tons of corn, and 3.2 million tons of soybeans into Britain......
What happened in Britain also affected the international grain market, which would be a real blood collapse, and suddenly plummeted by 15 percent.
Cheap grain for the Russians has not yet appeared on the international market, and as a result, prices have fallen almost as much as possible.
At the beginning of the year, rye in the international grain market was still 25 Aegis/ton, and now it has fallen to 18.6 Aegis/ton; Corn also increased from 18.8 Aegis/ton; It fell to 14.1 Aegis / ton......
In short, the prices of all staple foods are plummeting, and the prices of other agricultural products are also being greatly affected. People's panic is the culprit of all this.
At this point, everyone will lose money together. Everyone knows that prices are not at their lowest point now, and that after the autumn harvest, grain prices will usher in a new low.
The supply of grain exceeds demand, and the good days of the major grain exporting countries are over. Without the Anglo-Russian grain loan agreement as a trigger, and without the grain dumping by the Vienna government, the agricultural crisis would have erupted slowly.
It's impossible now, and the crisis will detonate directly as soon as it is approaching. 1872 was destined to be a tragic year, and unsalable grain would become a hot topic in the second half of the year.
It's not a matter of price anymore, it's that it doesn't sell at all. The best way to stabilize food prices is to cut grain production and destroy surplus agricultural products.
As a responsible Power, Austria naturally has to take active measures. In July, the Austrian Ministry of Agriculture issued a call to the world's major grain-producing countries to reduce grain production capacity at the same time.
On 12 August, the Vienna government introduced the Land Fallow Act, which made it mandatory for land to be fallow for growing food. The specific fallow time shall be determined by the local government according to the actual situation.
Laws that appear to work are actually very limited in impact. Austria already has a tradition of agricultural fallow, which is nothing more than this time explicitly stipulated.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture's estimates, Austria's grain production could be reduced by about two to three percentage points. This is also a large number that can alleviate the overcapacity crisis.
On August 15, the Vienna government promulgated the "Land Reclamation Law", which clearly stipulates that the cultivation of wheat, corn, rye, potatoes and other crops will be prohibited for five years on newly reclaimed land in Europe.
These measures are far from quenching the thirst of the near, and in any case, the crops that have been planted in the field cannot be plucked.
In 1872, Austria's grain production would not decrease, and it would not affect the price of the international grain market for a short time.