Chapter 194: December (4)
The so-called 4 million tons of Japan's export request does not mean that Japan wants to import 4 million tons of crude oil, but mainly refers to the demand for high-grade aviation gasoline and high-performance lubricants equivalent to 4 million tons, which is lacking in domestic production and urgently needed militarilyWhat is lacking is high-performance fuels and lubricants.
The rest of this production can also be transferred to European civilian use, so that the industrial and commercial fuel oil of Western European countries, including Britain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain and Portugal, can be basically guaranteed, and even civilian fuel oil can be partially guaranteed. As soon as the economic adjustment policy was announced in December, the supply of petrol in Parisian taxis began to be guaranteed, and a month later petrol stations began to supply petrol to private cars – although it was still expensive.
The 1945 production was set in this way, and the Middle Eastern countries had doubts about the distribution of oil production in 1946 - on the one hand, Germany made every effort to increase exploitation, on the other hand, it said that military fuel consumption would definitely drop significantly, and at the same time, it would also superimpose factors such as the recovery of oil production in West Russia and the increase in Libyan oil production, and they believed that it would cause local oversupply and affect revenues. With the four far-reaching principles of demand-based production, price lock-in, and overall balance,
The four basic principles are led by the OPF group, which is currently dominated by the oil-exporting countries controlled by the oil fund – Libya and the Middle East, with Western Russia, Romania and Hungary participating in the integration after the mobilization of Germany, and according to Hoffman's plan, South American and African oil-producing countries in the long term.
The so-called mark pricing means that in the future, the crude oil trade transaction prices of oil countries and observer countries controlled by the OPF organization will be completely priced in the mark (after the establishment of the euro, the price will be denominated in euros), which makes the mark gain an invisible monetary hegemony through the intermediate of oil.
Of course, Hoffman learned the idea of the petromark from the petrodollar in the United States, and it was accepted and applauded by Speer and economists as soon as it was elaborated, but Hoffman also knew that it could not be copied. When the petrodollar system was first established, the United States was the world's largest oil producer, controlling nearly half of its crude oil production – crude oil is inherently dollar-labeled, while Germany does not produce oil itself, and even European oil producers are few. Without linking Mark to the OPF organization through the Petroleum Fund, copying and copying will definitely be problematic.
Based on this understanding, Hoffman and Speer discussed repeatedly and a group of economists and bankers jointly discussed, and added three additional principles as supporting principles for the petromark.
The so-called demand-based production refers to the fact that the European Union and the Organization of Exporting Countries count all the demand and put forward production requirements for the exporting countries after appropriate redundancy according to the European economic development situation, industrial demand and the expansion target for the next year, assuming that the oil demand of the whole Europe in 1945 was 42 million tons, the supply would be 45 million to 46 million tons. On the one hand, it is necessary to ensure supply, and on the other hand, to prevent surplus.
Another important implication of this principle is not only to determine the overall crude oil supply of exporting countries, but also to determine the share and output of each oil-producing country, so as to prevent the oil-producing countries from dominating and arbitrarily dumping and destroying the market structure......
Under the condition that production is determined by demand, the supply of oil will not fluctuate greatly due to shortages or surpluses, which is very beneficial to oil-producing or oil-using countries, and any market manipulation must weigh the forces behind this organization and give full play to the power of the state-controlled economy.
Price lock-in is the core component of the four principles, after repeated agreements, after the operation of the OPF organization, a basket of crude oil offshore benchmark pricing of 10 marks / barrel for European customers to sell, of which 8 marks is the intrinsic price of crude oil, 2 marks is the EU common tax, each crude oil producing countries according to their own crude oil quality and the benchmark basket of crude oil gap for reasonable premium adjustment, such as Libya crude oil quality is relatively poor, it can not be sold for 10 marks, while Kuwait, Najd oil quality is better, the price is more than 10 marks, However, no matter how the price is priced, the ratio of net price to tax ratio of 8:2 remains unchanged.
The principle of price lock-in includes double lock-in: Germany uses strength and force to ensure that each country's oil can be sold for 10 marks, of which 8 marks are handed over to the exporting country, and 2 marks are handed over to the EU (as a unified European tax to pay administrative and military expenses), under normal circumstances, each country reports its oil demand according to its own actual economy, and the oil fund carries out unified rationing, and the price is clear in advance, which is the first lock-in - simple price lock-in.
The second lock-in is market lock-in: European countries must buy crude oil from the OPF, and the OPF must first ensure that the demand of European countries is met before allowing exports. European countries are not allowed to import crude oil from other regions until the crude oil quota for the current year determined by the OPF oil producers is sold, and if they insist on importing, the difference will be paid as a supplement to the EU's revenue.
This is a deliberately designed rule for the US oil industry, and it is very deadly. As a traditional oil exporter, the United States often dumped oil at a barrel price of $1.5-2 a barrel in peacetime before the war (before the war, $1 was equal to 2.5-3 marks, but now $1 on the black market can only be exchanged for 2.1-2.2 marks), and the price of 8 marks determined by Germany has exceeded the average price of US oil exports before the war. But under this system, I'm sorry - even if a European country can buy American oil for 5 marks, it must pay a special tariff of 3 marks and a 2 marks EU tax to the EU, and maintain the price at 10 marks, taking into account the actual cost of transporting oil from the United States, so as to block the impact of cheap oil and the door of dumping by the American oil industry on Europe - exporting countries raise their hands in favor.
Of course, the opposite may also happen, for example, if the price of oil in the world market has risen to more than 10 marks, the exporting countries must also sell to Europe at the prescribed price, and the OPF must not export until the European ration is met, the so-called two-way market lock-in principle, which firmly locks the EU economy with the OPF.
Germany has also humanely established the principle of price increases: since 1945, the price of oil has automatically increased by 1 mark every three years, and the composition remains unchanged at a ratio of 8:2, unless the exporting countries themselves oppose the price adjustment, or the importing countries agree to increase the price more. It not only allows the exporting countries to see the increase in income in the future, but also lets the importing countries know that the subsequent price increase is determined in an orderly manner, and can make overall arrangements for the operation of the national economy.
In peacetime, the price of crude oil in the world is basically maintained at about 5 marks, and Germany now sets 8 marks to ensure the interests of the countries in the Middle East, so they all pat their chests and promise to agree with the system.
Hoffman has a different understanding of this, although the price of oil in later generations with the dollar has risen wildly, but that is more due to the depreciation of the dollar, the benchmark price of crude oil in his time often hovered at $60 / barrel, equivalent to the price of one-twentieth ounce of gold, in the 1945s, an ounce of gold itself was only $35, and the price of one-twentieth was about $1.75 / barrel, and the central value was not far away.
In the face of non-EU control of the market, the OPF is free to market price crude oil outside the quota – but this space is only theoretical, and so far Europe, Africa and the Middle East have been integrated into the unified system; In South America, led by the La Plata group, countries have stated that they will agree with the EU system, and only the North American and Far Eastern markets can achieve free trade in crude oil.
After learning about the four principles of German oil, Japan immediately understood the play of "controlling the economy", and also drew a gourd to engage in the four principles of Far Eastern oil - except for the Far East crude oil, which is priced in yen, the rest almost all adopt the same strategy as Germany. Although Japan controls only 11 million tons of crude oil production, less than a quarter of OPF production, in the Far East, Japan is currently the only major crude oil demander, which is relatively easier to control than Europe.
The remaining two major oil producers will be dumbfounded: the United States has more than 100 million tons of crude oil production, which North America simply cannot consume; East Russia, with an output of more than 10 million tons, is also unable to squeeze into the mainstream market. In Speer's words: When there is a war, the more oil the better, and the fewer people who grab oil from themselves, the better, and in peacetime, we understand that more oil production can only be a burden, and the greater the demand, the better!
This demand-based economic model has a flaw: it cannot automatically adjust the gap between supply and demand, and the surplus cannot be compressed and the shortage cannot be expanded. At this time, it is the turn of the fourth principle - the principle of general equilibrium, in which Germany plays the role of the last stabilizer for counter-cyclical adjustment: when there is a surplus of quotas, Germany guarantees to purchase and store at a price of not less than 6 marks per barrel, and when there is a shortage of quota production, Germany guarantees to sell at a price of no more than 10 marks (the above prices do not include EU taxes).
Originally, Speer set the production quota at 45 million tons in 1945, 50 million tons in 1946, and 56 million tons in 1947, but Hoffman thought that he underestimated the actual demand, and strongly recommended that the scale be expanded to 65 million tons in 1946 and 75 million tons in 1947, that is, more than 70 million barrels, but only 500 million marks. ”
"But this will also increase the pressure on the national debt."
"How can it increase the pressure on the national debt?" Hoffman laughed, half-jokingly, half-seriously, "Such a small number, print more tickets and take it away—otherwise what are you doing with oil marks?" ”
Only then did Speer and others suddenly realize that the Führer's insistence on not using a money printing machine to solve the problem during the war did not mean that money would not be printed after the war, and that an appropriate amount of water would be beneficial to the overall economic lubrication.