Since there was no Middle East theater of operations, the closest to the Middle East region was the South Asian Theater Campaign, and after Yuan Chenhao became chief of staff of the South Asian Theater, he not only dealt with many things related to the Middle East region, but also spent a lot of time understanding the situation and pattern of the Middle East region. 【】

After introducing the situation, Yuan Chenhao breathed two sighs of relief and said: "Do you think there is a possibility of conflict in the Middle East?" "The tear book bar dumps the concave coffee factory less, and the salary is more

"There are definitely possibilities, it just depends on the odds." Pei Chengyi also sighed and said. "After the Iran war, almost everyone thought that there would be a large-scale war in the Middle East. In particular, after Egypt and Syria successively imported large quantities of advanced weapons and equipment from China, the Western news media repeatedly clamored that we were creating a fourth Middle East war. But for nearly twenty years. Why is the Middle East hot but not at war? The reason is the same, a pound of slaps doesn't make a sound. Although the Iranian authorities are clamoring so loudly that they vow to wipe Israel off the face of the earth every few months, Iran's supreme spiritual leader is not an idiot and knows that Russia cannot be relied upon and that there is no intervention from us. Iran is a green onion. Otherwise, the Iranian president would not have signed a treaty on the elimination of nuclear weapons in London. As a matter of fact, the Russian authorities also know in their hearts that as long as we stabilize our breath, even if Russia goes bankrupt, it will not be able to make a name for itself in the Middle East. The European Union, which has been making small fights, also knows where the key lies in the Middle East. To put it simply, we've been busy solving other problems and tackling all sorts of challenges. There is no energy to stir up trouble in the Middle East. ”

"Then go to the past, not the future."

"That's the key." Pei Chengyi smiled and said, "After the Iran war, we used all our efforts to solve peripheral problems and domestic problems. In essence, before the Falklands conflict, we had been carefully dealing with the challenge of the United States, and we did not compete with the United States for world hegemony at all. In fact, we are also not capable of competing with the United States for world hegemony. The Falklands War was not only a turning point, but also an unmistakable signal.

Our performance with the United States is enough to make certain countries that are ready to move, such as Iran and Russia, feel that the time is ripe to act. In a sense, no matter what happens in our country, the authorities will certainly turn a blind eye if necessary. "Round reading the most choppy chapter, choose the tear book, throw the concave Peng complete

"Leave things unfolded?"

Pei Chengyi nodded and said, "To be precise, let the situation unfold in the direction we need." Think about it, what should we do after the Falklands conflict, and what should the United States do? ”

Yuan Chenhao frowned slightly, and did not rush to speak.

"We are very clear about what we should do, after all, there is a long way to go in domestic reform, and we should not shift our focus until the major issues that determine the progress of the Chinese nation have been fundamentally resolved. In fact, there is nothing to guess about what the United States should do. A new round of high economic growth has arrived. It is also known as the "Golden Age, coming." The world will face unprecedented changes, whether it is we, the United States, or any other country that has the potential to become the world's number one power, only by seizing the opportunity can we make great progress. It is precisely for this reason that in the foreseeable future, the US authorities will also have to focus on domestic construction and strive to catch up with us in the shortest possible time in several most critical areas. Pei Chengyi paused a little and said, "The problem is that we will not let the United States move forward smoothly, and the American authorities will not let us live a stable life, otherwise there will be no conflict on the Falklands." In fact, let alone us and the United States, the European Union and Veros, which have the ability to become world powers. and countries such as Iran and Israel, which have close ties to the regional situation, will take action. ”

"According to your words, war is bound to break out in the Middle East."

Pei Chengyi let out a long breath and said that this is what he meant.

"So, what is the most likely place to break out in war, or what is the form of war?"

"It's hard to say." Pei Chengyi touched his chin and pondered for a while before he spoke, "Although almost everyone thinks that the contradiction in the Middle East is the contradiction between Iran and Israel, or the contradiction between us and the United States, I personally feel that the possibility of a conflict between Iran and Israel is not very high, and even if it does, it has little to do with us." There are three reasons for this: First, Iran does not share a border with Israel, even though the current Iraqi regime has close ties to Iran. Because Syria has changed its political stance more than a decade ago and negotiated with Israel with our help, and Jordan has close relations with the United States, the European Union, and Iran has a war with Israel. Only through Lebanon, which is a small country and is not at all an opponent of Israel. So Iran and Israel have no basis for a war. Second, it is impossible for Russia to justifiably support Iran against Israel, and the United States cannot support Israel to deal with Iran, and neither side has a backer. Third, Israel and Iran have both signed the London Treaty, and we share the same attitude with the United States on the issue of destroying nuclear weapons, so it is impossible for the authorities on both sides to be unaware of the impact of war, and therefore it is impossible for them to risk being directly attacked by a major power and the other major power can only sit idly by and watch the war start, and even a conflict is not possible. ”

Yuan Chenhao nodded thoughtfully, expressing his agreement with Pei Chengyi's judgment.

"The fact that Iran and Israel cannot fight does not mean that there are no other contradictions in the Middle East." Pei Chengyi beats the hand; Under. Said. "I believe that Leah is the most stable factor in the Middle East. Although Syria and China have not gotten closer and closer since the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War, they have not only purchased a large amount of weapons and equipment from our country and adjusted their military forces in accordance with our proposals, but have also actively cooperated with us diplomatically to resolve the issue of the ownership of the Golan Heights with Israel through peaceful negotiations. But it must not be overlooked that Israel has so far not made any substantive concessions on the return of the Golan Heights. If Syria had hesitated before that, fearing that we would retreat from the battlefield and not play a role in the Syrian-Israeli dispute, or even betray them, then the outcome of the Falklands conflict will certainly allow the Syrian authorities to make decisions. In accordance with the intelligence provided by the Military Intelligence Agency. The day after I left I'm in I'm in Buenos Aires, the Syrian ambassador to Afghanistan called on the Argentine Foreign Minister, and the Syrian president has decided to visit Buenos Aires before the end of the year. It is clear that the Syrian authorities are trying to figure out our role in the Falklands conflict. That is, by the end of this year at the latest, the Syrian president will have a choice between continuing negotiations and recovering the Golan Heights through military operation. ”

"That is, the war will break out soon?"

"I'm not sure either." Pei Chengyi sighed and said, "The Middle East is not the South Atlantic. Syria is not Argentina either, otherwise the issue of the Golan Heights would not have dragged on until now. Of course, I have always believed that as early as twenty years ago, when Ji Lao visited Damascus, he laid the most important chess pieces in the Middle East. Otherwise, it would not have exported so many advanced weapons and equipment to Syria. The question is, on this chessboard in the Middle East. We have laid out not only Syria, but also Egypt. Because Egypt is south of Sudan, and Sudan is an important producer of resources, Egypt is definitely more important than Syria. There is no doubt that Egypt is unwilling to confront Israel, let alone send troops to attack Israel for the sake of so-called national righteousness, as it did in the sixties of the last century. And so it goes. When it comes to Middle East policy, we don't have much choice. At the very least, it is believed that even if the Syrian authorities make a decision at the end of this year, as long as we do not take a stand, the situation in the Middle East will not be much hotter. And if we want to make a statement, we mainly have to look at the domestic and international situation, that is, whether it is beneficial for us to create a conflict or even a war in the Middle East. ”

Yuan Chenhao frowned slightly, waiting for Pei Chengyi to continue.

"It's a pity that, in my eyes, I don't see any benefit from it right now."

"That is,"

"The problem is, we can't ignore another factor."

"Meixian?"

Pei Chengyi nodded and said: "The Falklands conflict has torn off the last fig leaf on our relations with the United States, and as long as national interests require it, the US authorities will definitely do something in the Middle East." In fact, because we have been reluctant to get involved in the disputes in the Middle East, our ability to dominate the region is very limited. In other words, as we have done in the South Atlantic, the United States can force us to do something in the Middle East at any time if it wants to. There is no doubt that if we respond passively, the results will not be much better, and it can even be said that if we make a wrong step, the United States can use Israel to dominate the Middle East and thus completely block us from the door of the Middle East. It will take at least a few years to get back to the Middle East. And a few years later, the international situation is not so simple. In other words, we certainly can't afford to make any mistakes in the Middle East. ”

Yuan Chenhao suddenly thought of something and looked at Pei Chengyi. Round reading the most chopped chapters, choose the tear book, throw the concave Peng complete

"I took the initiative to mention the Middle East issue just to draw your attention." Pei Chengyi patted Yuan Chenhao on the shoulder and said, "Yuan called you, the commander of the South Asian Theater, back, definitely not to ask about the distribution of food, nor to care about the living conditions of hundreds of millions of Indians.

To tell you the truth, I'm 100% sure that the Yuan will ask about the Middle East, and will use this to judge your talents and decide whether you go or stay. ”

"I thought of it too, but not as thoroughly as you think."

"What do you think?" The tearful book bar has fewer concave factories, and there are many bad salaries

"Me? It's much more direct. Yuan Chenhao smiled reluctantly and said, "At the beginning. I think the Yuan will be like it was for the UK. Take positive action in the Middle East, but then think it's unlikely, for the reason you said, the Middle East is not the South Atlantic. Later, I felt that the Yuan would use the hands of Russia and Iran to light a fire in the Middle East. Actually, it's not likely. After all, the Russian and Iranian authorities are not stupid. Won't be our pawn. Finally, as you said at the beginning, the dispute over the Golan Heights is the most intractable issue in the Middle East and the one that is most likely to lead to war. It's just not that complicated. I think there are only two possible causes of conflict. First, we have taken the initiative to continue to cause trouble for the United States, and second, the United States has counterattacked and created trouble for us. ”

Pei Chengyi frowned slightly, then shook his head with a smile.

"Of course, hearing you say that, I think the latter is more likely."

"Why?"

Yuan Chenhao thought for a moment and said: "There is nothing to say about our reasons, Yuan will definitely not cause trouble in the Middle East, and the next Yuan may not do much in foreign operations." In fact, it is not us who wants to pick quarrels and provoke troubles now, but the United States. After the Falklands conflict, the United States suffered a dumb loss, and even if it was able to stabilize Britain, it also lost a large part of its position. Regardless of how Latin American countries feel for the time being, the countries of continental Europe have a lot of ideas. And the Seven Nations create enough trouble. Under these circumstances, in addition to holding on to their current positions, the US authorities must do one thing well, that is, to convince the world that "the era of the United States has not passed, and the United States is still a great power." Do it well. First of all, you have to choose the battlefield, or choose the target of the leak. There must be three conditions for this object, one is that it is strong enough, the second is that it is easy to defeat, and the third is that it is not implicated. Only in this way can the strength of the United States be demonstrated. It would be even more perfect if the object had a relationship with us, or had our support. There is no doubt that there are few countries in the world today that have these conditions, and Syria is one of them. To put it another way, if the United States can slap Syria down and we do nothing, the United States will be able to regain its prestige. ”

"You're right, you think. Will we do nothing? ”

"This" Yuan Chenhao hesitated for a moment and said with a smile, "Actually, this is the question I want to ask you." ”

"You're lying to me again, you should have an idea, right?"

"It's not that I don't have ideas, it's just that I'm not very mature

"Say it, and we'll discuss it together

Yuan Chenhao nodded and said: "In fact, the biggest uncertainty is not in the United States, nor in Syria, let alone third parties such as the European Union and Russia, but us, that is, our next state president." I think if we let Yuan make the decision, it will definitely make a difference. In any case, co-opting Syria is not something that is only done today, and we have invested enough money in Syria. More importantly, the outcome of this fight is too important for us. Just as we cannot lose Argentina, we must not lose anything in Syria, otherwise we will lose not only Syria, but the entire Middle East, the crossroads of the world. To that end, we should take proactive and decisive action. The question is that it seems unclear whether Yuan will continue to take a tough stance after stepping down as a thug and taking the next step. ”

"Unknowns?" Pei Chengyi frowned slightly.

"I talked to you so much in the afternoon, and my first feeling is that after the next Yuan comes to power, the first thing to do is to eliminate the influence of Yuan." Yuan Chenhao smiled bitterly and said, "No matter how influential Yuan is, as the Yuan Mansion ushers in a new master, the situation in the country will change. How big of a change is this? No one can tell. It's just that we must believe that the foreign policy of the republic will definitely be affected, and very much.

There is no doubt that the Falklands clash is just a warm-up game, and the United States is not doing very well and will inevitably try to win the first leg of the official game, while we are complacent about the victory in the warm-up game. The mentality has not been adjusted well. How to cope with the new competition? ”

"It seems that you are much calmer and more sober than I thought."

Yuan Chenhao shook his head with a smile, not happy.

"Just keep it that way." Pei Chengyi smiled and said, "What you said at the beginning was also what I was worried about, but look at it from another angle." Yuan held a high-level meeting at this time and called us all back, and he will definitely make relevant arrangements and will not let us lose our vigilance. As a matter of fact, if the United States wants to win back a game, it must seize the time and take advantage of our regime change to catch us off guard. When we are ready, no matter who is in power, the republic will not watch Syria end. We can think of this problem, and the meta can also think of this problem, so we will do the set deployment. If I'm not mistaken, Meta will evaluate your abilities first, so you have to behave well. ”

"Aren't you going to get involved?"

"Me?" Pei Chengyi smiled and shook his head. "There is no need for this, it has been proven that you have the ability to command the army in battle and win the final victory." Besides, you are no longer the colonel's staff officer back then, but the commander of the major general on the Weizhen side, if I intervene to come in, what is it? ”

Yuan Chenhao was stunned for a moment, and then smiled bitterly.

Speaking of which, Pei Chengyi and Yuan Chenhao showed each other their hole cards. Both knew that war would soon break out in the Middle East. And Wang Yuanqing will pick a suitable commander among the two, and the first choice is Yuan Chenhao. And not Pei Chengyi. To be precise, under the condition that Yuan Chenhao has the ability to complete the task alone, Wang Yuanqing will not let Pei Chengyi go to the Middle East to intervene. Such an arrangement must have a deeper meaning, and Pei Chengyi and Yuan Chenhao first thought of letting the Republic avoid getting involved in the Middle East conflict. Pei Chengyi took this opportunity to show his attitude that he would not take the credit for Yuan Chenhao's work on the Middle East issue. Yuan Chenhao also took this opportunity to make his position clear, that is, no matter how much he achieves, his relationship with Pei Chengyi will not change, and the two are not only friends, but also superiors and subordinates. Because both of them are smart people, they speak a lot more subtly and tactfully, and they don't need to be clear.

Speaking of this time. The sedan drove into the General Staff.

After meeting Xiang Linghui, the two left the General Staff Headquarters with the chief of the General Staff and many other generals who had been invited to attend high-level meetings in the Yuan Mansion.

Seeing this formation, Pei Chengyi and Yuan Chenhao both knew it in their hearts.

It was definitely an extraordinary high-level meeting.