On the day of the spoon moon and the bow, Tianyue Qiwei gathered, and Bai took the opportunity of Brandino to eat breakfast, and Du Qiwei gave a general introduction to the harvest in the past few days

correct

The results of the investigation of the four have been renewed. Although there is enough evidence to prove that some cabinet members have an affair with Standard Company. Ministers, including the Secretary of Energy and the Secretary of Labour, have had contacts with Standard and lobbyists associated with Standard in the past few months, and at least the Minister has accepted the benefits, but there is no evidence that Standard deliberately exaggerated the results or made unrealistic estimates in its secret exploration report to Congress.

When introducing this matter. Dudgway was very careful with the wording so as not to mislead the president.

In fact, in the "Prospectgate" incident, Duchway did not have a clear position of interest. In his opinion, for whatever purpose, as long as the results of exploration are deliberately distorted. All of them are egregious acts that harm the national interests of the United States, and can even be regarded as acts of treason.

I have to admit that Duchway is a "patriot".

Although Dudgway has never denied the "backyard." strategic importance, but, in his opinion, the ulterior motives are achieved by deliberately distorting the facts. Even if it is under the banner of defending national interests, in the end it will not only not benefit the country, but will cause irreparable losses to the country.

In Duchway's conception, there is something that is, and what there is not is nothing.

If the Falklands do have large deposits of rare metals, even if there is no valid reason. The United States must also intervene, and in the most direct way, only in this way can it prevent important resources that can change the strategic balance from falling into the hands of the enemy, and only then can it fundamentally defend its national interests. If the opposite is true. Even if there are other gains, you cannot intervene in the Falklands conflict in the name of acquiring rare metal deposits, let alone make wrong decisions based on wrong exploration reports. Thus seriously harming national interests.

It is precisely because of this that Dudgway does not want to influence the president because of his attitude.

Clearly, the second report of the fourth investigation further complicates the situation.

There's no other reason for that. Standard Corporation's exploration report is inherently ambiguous. If calculated according to the proven reserves, the Falklands do not have much strategic value, "o 10,000 tons of rare metals are not enough for American companies to eliminate the threshold for months." If calculated according to the prospective reserves, the Falklands have infinite strategic value, and the 100 million tons of rare metal deposits are enough for American companies to consume the fighting force for years. Or a total of all oak used in a hurry.

I love Li'er,

The problem lies in the "prospective reserves".

The use of "prospective reserves" indicates that Standard is making unfounded speculation. Rather than an accurate assessment based on exploration data. That is, Standard is not responsible for any data related to the hitter's "prospective reserves".

For the U.S. government. It's a real "uncertaintie."

The last thing politicians want is uncertainty.

If there is a need to make strategic decisions based on uncertainties, it is a strategic adventure in the truest sense of the word. There is no doubt that good politicians take the initiative to avoid strategic adventures.

So it was with Dudgway, and so it was with Branchno.

How credible is the "thug" report? Bran forced the secretary to take away the breakfast, and it seemed that the news brought by Dudgway affected his appetite.

The thugs are very credible. At least that's what I think. Thankfully, though. It's not just us who have a headache, Dudgway pulled out his cigarette and lit it. "According to the joint investigation report provided by Mu and several other intelligence agencies, the Chinese government and intelligence agencies also do not know much about the situation in the Falklands. ”

"What do you mean?. Branzino frowned.

"In fact, predicting the reserves of rare metal deposits has always been a worldwide problem." Dudgway sighed. "For this reason, I specifically consulted a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. As I understand it. Until rare metals become the most important strategic resource, the associated exploration techniques are very limited. Several well-known mineral deposits are open-pit mined, and there is not much difficulty in terms of exploration. With the explosion of the electric power revolution, the demand for rare metals has increased sharply, and rare metals have become the most valuable strategic resources over fossil fuels such as oil, and the exploration technology for rare metal deposits has been highly valued. In stark contrast to the huge demand, the technology for rare metal deposits has been progressing very slowly, far from the level of progress that was made in oil exploration technology. It can be said that backward exploration technology has become the main reason for the rising prices of rare metals. According to the professor. There are no more than three exploration techniques mastered now. I can't tell you which three they are. However, there is one big thing in common, and that is that the prediction of reserves is very unreliable and has no accuracy to speak of. Don't say anything else. It is now a rare metal mine on the Sichuan-Kuang Plateau in Laos. Initially hundreds of millions of tonnes of reserves were predicted, followed by others predicting less than 10 million tonnes at most. At present, about 300 million tons have been mined, and the proven remaining reserves are more than 1 billion tons, and it is expected that 3 to 5 billion tons will eventually be recovered. It follows that no prediction is worthwhile

"That is, this is Russian roulette

Du Qiwei was stunned for a moment, and then smiled bitterly.

Although the president's metaphor is not very appropriate, it can be a good illustration of the situation of the United States.

What about the rest of the thugs? Bran changed the subject, not dwelling on the unclear question.

The Pentagon's assessment came to fruition, and Dudgway took out the documents he had brought, "This is what I just received." Haven't finished reading it yet. ”

"Let's take a look." Blanche divided the document into two parts and handed half of it to Dudgway.

Relatively speaking, the military strength of the scrutiny could not be more difficult than any other, according to the Pentagon's assessment, if external factors are not taken into account, Britain has absolute certainty of defeating Argentina in the Falklands conflict. If British military action is not restricted, Britain can even inflict heavy losses on Argentina, so that all the efforts made by Argentina in 10,000 years will be wasted.

The problem is that it is impossible not to take into account external factors.

In response to this situation. The Pentagon divides foreign intervention into three levels: paramilitary, covert and full-scale. According to the Pentagon's assessment. The likelihood of these three scenarios is from most likely to smallest. That is, paramilitary intervention is certainly possible, while full-scale military intervention is almost impossible, and the likelihood of covert military intervention is determined by the war situation.

The so-called "paramilitary intervention." It refers to the intelligence support provided by the Republic to Argentina.

No doubt. As long as war breaks out, the Republic will certainly provide Argentina with military intelligence. In particular, the strategic intelligence port against the British expeditionary fleet was based on the assessment made by the Pentagon. Unless the British were able to arrive before the expeditionary fleet arrived. Surprise strikes against Argentina's main air bases were to be carried out with other striking forces, otherwise the Argentine air force would have been able to pose a mortal threat to the British expeditionary fleet during the war, relying on military intelligence provided by the Republic. The results speak for themselves, as long as the British expeditionary fleet is heavily damaged, even if only the aircraft carrier loses its combat effectiveness, without completely defeating the Argentine Air Force. Britain will both lose the war and accept a fait accompli.

With minimal involvement, the results were all bad for the UK. Other scenarios can be imagined.

The presupposed, of course, is that the United States does not intervene.

If the United States had intervened, the outcome would have been different.

I love to be tamed

In its report, the Pentagon first affirmed the decisive significance of the US entry. This was followed by an analysis and assessment of possible situations. According to the Pentagon's assessment, unless the level of involvement of the United States and the Republic remains at the level of "paramilitary intervention". As long as the scale of intervention is expanded, even if it is only "covert military intervention". That is, to provide weapons and equipment to belligerents in a non-public manner, or to send military forces such as submarines, special forces, and pilots to participate in the war, or to provide assistance in the form of mercenaries and military advisers. It is also likely to lead to an escalation of the Falklands conflict, or even turn into a war between the Republic and the United States, thus changing the nature of the Falklands conflict. There is no doubt that any level of escalation, or the direct involvement of only two tiers of major powers, would be detrimental to the United States

Sound.

Without taking into account the potential strategic value of the Falklands. It is impossible for the United States to gain anything by entering the war.

I have to say that this Pentagon report is very objective and has a very Duchway style.

There is nothing surprising that the current Minister of Defense was introduced to Blandino by Duchway. Otherwise, Dudgway would not have been able to become a national security adviser. What's more, it was Stark, who drafted the report as head of the Defense Security Agency of the Department of Defense. As Duchway's most capable subordinate. Stark was deeply influenced by Duchway and knew more about Duchway's character, so he would not include interest factors in the evaluation report.

Of course, Stark didn't forget to leave his mark.

At the end of the assessment, Stark made a recommendation that Britain should be actively supported in the event that war was inevitable. Providing comprehensive assistance to Britain before the outbreak of the war, and providing intelligence assistance to Britain during the war, is the only way to ensure that the United States will not be involved in the war to the greatest extent possible while ensuring the victory of Britain. In other words. Only by helping Britain win the Second Falklands War without entering the war can it bring benefits to the United States and fundamentally defend its national interests.

Obviously, this analysis can only benefit Stark.

The problem that the tower has taken into account in the freeze, and Brand's and Duch's grand meeting can't be imagined?

ten thousand

After reading the documents. Both fell silent.

As Duchway lit his third cigarette, Branchnow said, "In a few days, I will have to answer the British Prime Minister's request face to face, and I must make a decision now." As the Pentagon report says, it is not the outcome of the war that determines our policy. It's about when the war comes. ”

Dudgway nodded. It means that he understands what the president means.

"Do you remember what I mentioned not long ago about Pei Chengyi? Dudgway spoke suddenly, startling Bran, who was about to continue.

"You are"

Hitter these days. I've been thinking about a question, Du Qiwei extinguished the cigarette butt he had just smoked a few puffs and said, "After the war in India, Pei Chengyi became famous. Its popularity around the world even surpassed that of Wang Yuanqing. If nothing else, I can guarantee that nine out of ten Americans know who Pei Chengyi is. At most, only five know who Wang Yuanqing is. Although within China, it is limited by the system. Compared with Wang Yuanqing, Pei Chengyi's influence is nothing at all, otherwise he would not have given up the position of chief of the general staff in a stable situation, and even had the idea of retiring, but before letting Pei Chengyi go to Argentina as the top military adviser, China's intelligence services would not be unaware of the influence of this move. In other words, sending Pei Chengyi to Argentina was definitely not an accident, nor was he invited by Argentina, but an arrangement made by Wang Yuanqing, and it was a very meaningful arrangement. ”

Brancono pondered for a moment. Nodding his head in agreement with Duchway's view.

"If that's the case, what is Wang Yuanqing's intentions?" Dudgway smiled and said, "In other words. If we can guess the intent of this arrangement. will be able to find out Wang Yuanqing's pulse. So as to make his strategic deployment more accurate

"General, you won't be unprepared, will you?"

Du Qiwei smiled and said, "I've been thinking about it for a few days, and it's a bit of a gain. ”

Branzino laughed as he poured his coffee for Duchway.

"According to my guess, Wang Yuanqing sent Pei Chengyi to Argentina. It is to encourage Argentina to go to war. Dudgway picked up his coffee cup. He took a sip and said, "There is no doubt about it." In Wang Yuanqing's view, a war born in the South Atlantic must be beneficial to China, otherwise he would not have actively agitated Argentina. So, what kind of benefits can China get from this? As far as I can see, I have only seen three benefits. ”

"Really?" Brandino muttered, waiting for Dudgway to continue.

"The first is to adjust China's strategic pattern. From the previous strategic defense to strategic offensive, through proactive actions to create problems for us. We have to move to the strategic defense stage and passively respond to China's strategic challenges. The second is to take this opportunity to expand the global influence of the intensive bloc with China as the group, and to expand China's global influence to the fastest extent by wooing Argentina and allowing more neutral countries, especially those in the strategic vacuum, to join the intensive bloc. Lay the foundation for a full-scale confrontation in the future. The third is to help China get through the difficult period caused by regime change, so that external distractions, including us, have to focus their attention outside China, so that China can successfully complete the transition of power and successfully complete the final step of political reform.

In my judgment, the importance of these three factors is from low to high. But thugs," Dudgway paused slightly. Said. "We can't ignore a very crucial issue, which is that in order to achieve the third and most important purpose, there must be a very important prerequisite.

I love all hearts,

"The war broke out in the near future."

Du Weiwei's brows jumped a few times, and then he nodded to indicate that this was what he meant.

"Same as you. These days. I've been thinking about this a lot as well. Blandino smiled faintly. Said. "When Pei Chengyi arrived in Buenos Aires, I thought. Wang Yuanqing is setting up a big game. Of course, this does not mean that I agree with the views of those news media, but that Wang Yuanqing is not playing a conspiracy, but a conspiracy. ”

"What do you mean?" Du Qiwei became interested and put on a deaf look.

"Actually. Wang Yuanqing has been conveying a certain signal to us in a very subtle way. Brandino let out a long breath and said, "Sending Pei Chengyi to Argentina is the first signal, which means that war is inevitable, and China will neither directly intervene nor stand idly by." Think about it. With the influence of Pei Chengyi. He went to Argentina. Can war be avoided? What's more. Pei Chengyi is almost a symbol of the squadron, if Wang Yuanqing intends to send an expeditionary fleet to the South Atlantic. Would he have done something so explicit? Of course. After sending Pei Chengyi over, it is impossible for China to let Argentina be slaughtered by us. ”

"What about the other signals?"

The second signal is the so-called "constitutional revision movement", which Wang Yuanqing tells us. China will certainly not be involved in a large-scale war at this time. Nor did it want any of the allies to get involved in a large-scale war. Do you think that at a time when the domestic political situation is changing dramatically, China will focus abroad? More importantly, Wang Yuanqing also told us. If we expand the conflict, China will definitely fight back. Not now, of course. It's the future. As long as a new constitution is not introduced. Wang Yuanqing is the ruler of China, and he will be able to control the content of the new constitution. We have had the so-called "Monroe Doctrine", won't China have a "Wang Yuanqing Doctrine," ”

Du Qiwei smiled bitterly. The analysis of brandino was convincing.

"Of course. Wang Yuanqing hinted at us more than that. For example, in the arms sales case that just broke out on the Internet, Wang Yuanqing used the controversial arms sales contract to tell us that the Falklands conflict is a local conflict with a limited scale that is not even a war, and China hopes to control the scale of the conflict. If my judgment is correct, in Wang Yuanqing's style, it will not be long before my meeting with George. He will give the next signal of China's determination and warn us not to play with fire on the Falklands. ”

"So to speak. We don't have a choice? ”

Heart

"Of course not." Blandino smiled. said, "Why did Wang Yuanqing repeatedly hint and threaten us? The reason is simple. China cannot afford to lose a war, even if it is the defeat of its allies. Although our situation is similar. I can't afford the same consequences. According to the principle of the game, mutual compromise is the best option in this case, but we can solve a problem that we could not solve before. ”

What's the problem? ”

"Haven't we always been uncertain about the strategic value of the Falklands?"

Dudgway was stunned for a moment. I immediately understood what the president meant.

"In addition to the reasons you mentioned, I believe that Wang Yuanqing is more interested in the resources of the Falklands. What's more. China's exploration technology is much more advanced than ours, so it is possible that we know the Falklands better than we do. Based on China's actions, we can make a judgment accordingly. So as to take the right response. With our geographical advantages, post-production is the most ideal coping strategy. ”

Dudgway didn't say much, for Blancheno had said everything he had to say.

The two were unanimous. What to do next, it goes without saying.