Chapter XXXVII
, two mouths day. The Western Group Brain Summit was held in Washington, D.C
Although the summit was originally intended to focus on the impact of the Treaty of London, coordinate the actions taken by the member states in fulfilling their relevant obligations, and maximize the protection of the group's interests, the situation in the South Atlantic is becoming increasingly tense, and the main topic of the meeting will shift to the Falklands dispute, which has nothing to do with the interests of the group, under the influence of the US president and the United Kingdom. Only one thing is certain: with the exception of the United Kingdom, none of the WHC members, including the United States, want to get involved in the Falklands dispute.
On the first day of the meeting, the president of Mexico expressed some degree of concern.
According to the President of Mexico. How to earnestly fulfill the obligations of the signatories of the London Treaty is the key to safeguarding the collective interests of the CRYO Group, and it is also the main topic of this summit, and we should not waste time on topics that are irrelevant to or contrary to it.
Although the Mexican president's words were subtle, the message was very clear: the SCO group should not be involved in the Falklands conflict.
As for whether this is what the Mexican president meant, it is difficult to say. Mexico is a member of both the Western Treaty and the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA), and has very close relations with the United States, even being the first state of the United States. No matter how unique the Mexican president is, he will not consult with Branzino in advance, right?
"Influenced" by the Mexican president on the first day of the meeting, Britain raised the Falklands issue for the first time.
Because of the busy brain affairs of various countries, the forebrain meeting only lasted for 3 days. According to the conference arrangement, the first day mainly determines the topics that need to be discussed by the brain. By not raising the Falklands issue, British Prime Minister George gave up his right to discuss the issue at the meeting.
It has to be said that the British minister is very shrewd.
Sometimes, "active abandonment" is more effective "active offense".
Britain's actions are first related to the peculiarities of the Western Group.
Although as a political and military alliance organization in the new era, the Western Treaty Group led by the United States is very similar to the intensive group with the republic as the core, for example, the main purpose is to defend the interests of the core countries, and other member countries obtain the economic, scientific, technological, cultural, security and other benefits provided by the core countries, so as to form a closer alliance system and more effectively safeguard the interests of all countries in the group. But influenced by history. The Western Group is "actively entering. It is far less complete than the intensive bloc, and there are still many fatal flaws, such as the failure to regulate the interests of member states other than the non-core countries. In this way, it is not possible to mobilize other member states other than the core countries to activate the collective defense mechanism of the bloc when the interests of one member state are harmed. It is precisely for this reason that many people believe that the Western bloc, which is called the "second NATO," is actually far inferior to the original NATO bloc, because in the NATO bloc, when the interests of any member state are violated, the other member states have the responsibility and obligation to provide them with substantive assistance.
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Of course, the reasons for the formation of such a complex situation are even more complex.
In general, all the problems of the Western Group are related to reality. In contrast, the fact that the NATO bloc was able to form "collective security" in the first place was to a large extent laughing with the threat from the East referring to the Soviet Union. It can be said that all NATO member states were threatened by the Soviet Union, so it is necessary to defend all member states through "collective security" and ensure the security of all member states to the greatest extent. When the Western Group was founded, not all member states were threatened by the same enemy, or even a few member states were threatened, and it was not the security issues that gave rise to the Western Group, but the strategic issues related to the country's future economy, science and technology, diplomacy, culture, and so on, which were different from traditional security. In the absence of common security needs, there is naturally no need to promote a "collective security system". To a large extent, the Western Group is more of an economic interest group born in the context of the "electricity revolution" than a security interest group.
In fact, the United Kingdom, as one of the founding countries. It also opposed "collective security" at the time of the formation of the Western Group.
The reason is simple: when the Western Group was formed, Britain's economic situation was improving, and its defense strength was at the peak of the century. The United States is fighting openly and covertly with the Republic in the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean; The wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran had left Britain suffering enough to avoid being drawn into the war again by the United States. The ruling British Conservative Party has made reservations on the issue of "collective security" by changing the foreign policy of the Labour Party in an attempt to break free from the control of the United States.
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Even Britain is opposed to "collective security", and the attitude of the other founding members of the Western Treaty can be imagined. In addition to the United States, Australia, and the Philippines, the other founding countries, including the United Kingdom, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and New Guinea, oppose the implementation of a "collective security" policy, and prefer that the United States fully open up to the bloc members in key technologies, especially in several important technologies related to the power revolution. Although at the insistence of the United States. At the time of the establishment of the WEOG, the "collective security" policy was not completely ruled out, and "collective security actions" could be taken in response to special incidents according to the actual situation, but according to the relevant regulations, in addition to "bilateral security operations" that do not involve other member states, as long as there are three or more member states involved, "collective security actions" need to be unanimously approved by the member states of the group. In any respect, such a strict "collective security rule" is not only the cornerstone of safeguarding the interests of ordinary member states, but also the accompanying stone of restricting the group's development. Since the establishment of the Western Group, the United States has been trying to change the status quo of "collective security." At one time, he even followed the example of the republic, hoping to form the most basic set of "collective unity and effort, without any cause, through compromise and concession, as the intensive group did." Since its birth, the main value of the existence of the Western Covenant Group, which is different from the international interest groups in the four abysses and four cultures, has been to safeguard the interests of the core countries, and the other members of the group are all "vassal states" dependent on the core countries. "So within the group, the other member states have neither the initiative nor much say. and then make concessions on the issue of "collective security". It is tantamount to giving up the only means of constraining the core countries. It was completely reduced to a pawn in the hands of the core country, and eventually suffered losses to the national interests.
In fact, the same problem exists in the intensive groups dominated by the republic. Although compared with the Rio Group, because of the foresight of the leaders of the Republic and the more favorable situation, when the Intensive Group was established, it played the brand of "collective security", thus making the Intensive Group go further in terms of "collective security", fundamentally speaking, the Intensive Group also has similar problems. For example, on the issue of Argentina's accession to the treaty, no matter how much effort the Republic has made, the other member states insist on acting in accordance with the "principle" and will never "do anything special", that is, Argentina must resolve further disputes with other countries over its territory and territorial waters. This rigid rule is the only means to limit the use of the bloc by the core countries to confront the core countries.
Leaving aside other issues for now, this alone is enough to give Britain something to offer.
Of course, George had two very important issues to consider.
It is the special position of Britain in the Western Group. The second is the impact of the Falklands dispute on other member states.
As the only European and Zhejiang country in the bloc, Britain's position in the Western Bloc is probably only slightly higher than that of the Philippines, which is far away on the other side of the Pacific. The "status" mentioned here is not determined by the strength and strategic position of the country, but by the role played by the member states in safeguarding the interests of the group. There is no doubt that the role of the UK is very limited. On a security issue that is not the most important, because the United States is able to provide security guarantees for all member states, the United Kingdom is of little significance to the other member states. In the most important economic sphere, because Britain "pedals on two boats." "It's more like an EU country, so few member states have too much hope for the UK. In very important areas of technology, the UK is still dispensable because it has not mastered much of the core technology related to the electric revolution. In terms of resources that are critical to ongoing development. Because Britain is no longer the empire on which the sun never sets. Local resources are extremely scarce, so the UK's position is also very embarrassing, and it is even considered by some member states to be dragging the group back.
Comparatively, the Falklands' influence on other member states is even more pronounced. As the "Western Hemisphere Group", because some of the members of the Western Group are in the Western Hemisphere, it has this nickname. Among the founding countries and member states, the Americas have introduced them, excluding the United States and Canada. The other ones are all Latin American and Caribbean countries. It can be seen that the vast majority of the members of the RIO group have good relations with Argentina, at least in terms of history, culture, tradition, etc., and are more biased towards Argentina than the United Kingdom. Although under the influence of the United States, few Western countries recognize Argentina's sovereignty over the Falklands, and still less do any member states dare to support Argentina's recovery of the Falklands, but under the influence of domestic public opinion, there will certainly not be many governments in Latin American and Caribbean countries that will brazenly support Britain.
Combining these three factors, the situation can be imagined.
In the words of The Times, in an old March commentary, George's main purpose in Washington was not to attend the Brain Meeting, let alone to seek help from the Western Group, but to take the opportunity to meet with Brandino alone and to obtain unilateral assistance from the United States.
It must be said that the comments of the British media are on point.
After the daytime meeting, the British prime minister was busy "paying a separate visit" to the US president.
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It seemed to have been guessed that Brandino would have a one-on-one meeting with George first, so that night, no other country had asked for an interview with the President of the United States.
Because George didn't bring any cabinet officials with him. So Blancheno only called a few advisers.
As soon as the talks began, the atmosphere was a little tense.
As leader of the Labour Party, George first made Britain's position clear, no matter what the circumstances. Britain is the staunchest ally of the United States, and it is also the most trustworthy ally of the United States. Although it is still debatable whether this is the case, after all, the current Labour Party is no longer the Labour Party of the previous era, and any political party has to adjust its political program according to the preferences of its voters, and after losing several general elections in a row, if it does not actively adjust its political line. Nor is it possible for the Labour Party to become the ruling party. But judging by George's attitude, at least his personal sincerity can be trusted. What's more, according to the information provided by Uranium, George had a video conference with the President of France, the Chancellor of Germany, the Prime Minister of Italy, and the President of the Netherlands for about two hours before coming to the meeting. Judging from George's performance in the White House, there is no consensus within the EU on the Falklands dispute, or no final decision has been made on whether to support the United Kingdom, otherwise the British Prime Minister would not have behaved so "humble" in front of the US president.
The performance of the British minister made Blanche and Duchway secretly breathe a sigh of relief.
In the absence of positive action by the EU, Britain has no choice but to "take refuge" with the United States. Although there is every reason to believe that as long as the situation in the South Atlantic continues to deteriorate, when the war becomes apparent, the EU will act, and aggressively and decisively. However, it must be admitted that no matter what the action is, it is impossible to achieve the desired effect at the beginning, and there is always a period of effect accumulation. If the EU waits until before the outbreak of war, even
I love to act only after I guess the nail paste, and I certainly can't make Britain feel full... Stretch your heart, and you can get Britain to "leave" from the EU. It will play an even more important role in the dismantling of the "United Europe".
Because the four provided accurate information. So Randino and Duchway were ready for a long time.
In the face of the British minister's request, Bran's attitude was not very positive, and he constantly expressed some concern through words and actions.
"Your Excellency, we must delve deeper into the problems of the South Atlantic." When it was Dudgway's turn to speak, the security adviser did not disappoint the president. "According to the information we have available, long before the London meeting, the Chinese state president assured the Argentine president on several occasions that China would certainly provide some degree of support and assistance in Argentina's military operation to recover the Falklands. Take a long-term view. We even have reason to believe that as early as 20 years ago, that is, after the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War, when China's former Yuan Youguo visited Buenos Aires and signed the first arms sales partnership worth tens of billions of yuan with Argentina, he made a certain guarantee to Argentina, otherwise Argentina would not have invested hundreds of billions of yuan in a huge amount of money without hesitation, and after several governments, it took 20 years to build up the most powerful military force in the entire Latin American region, and even in the entire southern hemisphere. ”
After listening to Dudgway, George was not in a hurry to speak.
As British minister, it is impossible for George not to be unaware of Dudgway's influence in the White House, nor the true meaning of this lengthy opening statement.
Rather than rushing to make his attitude clear, it is better to let Duchway continue to speak, and it is not too late to express his position after figuring out the intention of the "president passing the microphone".
"Of course, the problem is not as serious as we thought." Duchway also saw George's thoughts, and did not continue to dwell on inconsequential topics, and said, "We have enough reason to believe that as long as the scale of the conflict is limited; China would not have intervened directly, or even provided material assistance to Argentina during the war. At all costs. We cannot ignore China's role in the conflict in the South Atlantic, let alone underestimate China's determination and will. In fact, the fact that the Begdao dispute has been put on hold for so many years has a very close relationship with China's influence. In other words, the Falklands dispute heated up at this time. It was originally the result of the Chinese factor. ”
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"General, you mean that the United States will abandon its most important ally because of this?" George couldn't help it. Although Duchway has not yet reached the key point, in the opinion of the British minister, if Duchway is allowed to continue, I am afraid that Brandino will push the boat and put the issue of aid to Britain on hold.
Dudgway smiled faintly and left the opportunity to speak to the president.
Let the British minister get excited. Dudgway has done his job.
"George, you misunderstood what the general meant." Branzino lightly defused the slightly tense atmosphere and said, "No matter what, the United States will not abandon Britain." What the general means is that under the influence of the Chinese factor, we must be thoughtful, and all kinds of situations must be taken into account, and we must not passively face the battle. What worries us most is not whether China will intervene in the South Atlantic conflict, but how China will wield its influence. It can even be said that China's involvement in the Falklands conflict is the good news we want most. Facts have proven time and again that China's leaders have amazing wisdom in foreign policy, and they can always create unexpected problems for us
"Wang Yuanqing can't keep working, sooner or later he has to be replaced." George muttered.
Bran's forced to smile wryly. "We have received information that there is a high risk that China's general elections will be delayed for several months," he said. Even if it is held as usual, Wang Yuanqing will take advantage of the "constitutional amendment movement" that has just started. Continue to wave. For a leader who dares to propose a "constitutional amendment," a few more months of influence. Even staying in the position of leader for a few more months is definitely not a difficult task. ”
"That is, the war will explode in a few months?"
Nian Lan nodded and gave Du Qiwei a look.
"That's what we're most worried about, if the war breaks out in a few months"
"Your Excellency," George interrupted Duchway, and said to Branch, "what does the President mean that we should wait until the situation is clear?" ”
"Of course not, because to do so is to give up the initiative." Brandino paused for a moment and said, "Actually. The other side of the conflict will not wait for us to be ready to act. Whatever the means, we must take the initiative. I mean, Britain has to act aggressively and decisively. But don't be saddled with the stigma of creating disputes and provoking wars. Until the situation becomes clear, or until China takes public action, we will not be able to provide any public assistance to the UK, but we can provide all the support your country needs. I can assure that as long as China crosses the red line, we will give Britain maximum support, including military action, regardless of the situation. That's the best I can do. ”
After Blandino finished speaking, George pondered for a moment before smiling.
Obviously, he has received a satisfactory answer.
Although Blandino's rhetoric is a bit cumbersome, the meaning is clear. The United States would not intervene in the Falklands War without the intervention of a third party, at most providing some covert support to the United Kingdom. As long as a third party intervenes, regardless of the situation, the United States will intervene and even send troops to the war.
There is no doubt that this is indeed the maximum guarantee that Branzino can make.