for 3 days. [Full text reading]

Since Li Cunxun replaced Pan Yunsheng as director of the Military Intelligence Bureau, the relevant information has been gradually declassified, the mystery has been revealed layer by layer, and the true face of the Military Intelligence Bureau has been revealed to the world. According to the internationally recognized statement, in the field of national security, the Military Intelligence Agency is the "number one intelligence agency." "The strength of the Far Fourth, the beginning and so on Western intelligence agencies. Even so, the MIA is not omnipotent.

In the past three days, the gains of the military intelligence have been very limited.

Because the significance of the brain-meeting of the Western Covenant Group is very significant, Li Cunxun did not let Liu Xiaobin take on the heavy responsibility alone, and personally deployed the work of collecting relevant intelligence.

From the reality of the situation, the best option to obtain intelligence related to the South Atlantic is to find a breakthrough in the United Kingdom.

It wasn't until sunset in March, five days after the conclusion of the Western Group brainstorm, that the MIA received the vital intelligence it needed from the British.

On the same day, the relevant information was sent to Pei Chengyi through the channels arranged by Liu Xiaobin.

Because Ti Bian received a call from Liu Xiaobin, after receiving the information, Pei Chengyi was not shocked.

For anyone else, this piece of intelligence from the MIA was shocking enough.

Britain is preparing for war!

According to the intelligence provided by the Military Intelligence Agency, George returned to London and again made contact with the brains of several major EU member states, and sent the foreign and defense secretaries to the "European Diplomacy and Security Conference" held in Brussels on March ugly, during which they held closed-door consultations with ministers from several other countries. Although the MIA was unable to obtain sufficiently convincing intelligence from the British Foreign Office and the Ministry of Defence, it did so through a "rat destroyer" who was embedded in the French Foreign Office. "I have obtained enough information for Li Cunxun to make a judgment, that is, the British foreign minister, in a meeting with the French foreign minister, made it clear that if the tensions in the South Atlantic turn into conflict or war, he hopes that France can provide diplomatic support, at least as in the last Falklands war, to maintain a neutral position in favor of Britain.

If this is the case, Li Cunxun will not let Liu Xiaobin contact Pei Chengyi urgently.

After the breakthrough of the French Foreign Ministry, the Military Intelligence Agency made progress in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and other countries, obtaining several similar pieces of information. Although Li Cunxun never doubted the ability of the MIA agents, he never overestimated the ability of the agents, after all, he was once the most powerful spy of the MIA. What's more, several important pieces of information are "ghost rats." The credibility of those who took the initiative to send it to the door is subject to debate.

With Li Cunxun's knowledge of intelligence work, it is impossible for him not to be suspicious.

When there is doubt, there is natural action.

In response to this situation, Li Cunxun's first reaction was that a breakthrough must be made in Britain, and only first-hand information can prove Britain's intentions.

Until the sacrifice of several intelligence officers and thugs, the truth was finally placed in front of Li Cunxun.

In fact, the truth is not complicated.

The British prime minister was warned before the contact with European countries, because "continental countries. At one time, it was too close to the republic in the process of political integration, and it has long become the target of the focus of the military intelligence bureau's infiltration, so any communication to the "continental countries." There is a risk that the information will fall into the hands of the Military Intelligence Agency. Instead of dodging the question, the British government took advantage of it, deliberately revealing this information through European countries.

The point is, the information itself is not wrong.

Actively reaching out to European countries in the hope of gaining the support of the European Union showed that Britain was preparing for war. In fact, Britain is indeed preparing for war!

The intelligence obtained from the British proved Li Cunxun's guess.

The British government is not playing conspiracy, but conspiracy.

Upon his return to London, George immediately signed a secret executive order. The special budget for the field year was approved, and the budget was raised from the initial 800 million yuan to 100 million yuan. It has increased the number of bricks. Although before the outbreak of the war, it was not surprising that Britain increased its special budget, which was mainly used for intelligence agencies. But no matter how you calculate it, several intelligence agencies in Britain do not need such a special budget. In other words, the British government took advantage of the opaque nature of the special budget and prepared for war through the intelligence agencies.

In Liu Xiaobin's words, a significant part of the new special budget fell into the hands of arms enterprises.

Of course, the special budget is not for war expenses, nor is it for the procurement of arms.

One of the distinguishing features of modern warfare is that it is costly. Not to mention war, a conflict of limited scale can drain a medium-sized country's fiscal revenue for a year. Taking the conflict in southern Tibet as an example, in this conflict of very limited scale, the expenses of the republican ** team were not even able to withstand the consumption of the thugs week. According to Britain's defense budget, the $700 million special budget can only purchase a maximum of eight warships or fighter planes, and it is not enough to even form an aircraft carrier battle group. Besides, there is a certain cycle in the production and construction of weapons and equipment, and if the war will break out soon, unless the country mobilizes for war, it will be too late to purchase arms in the normal way.

There is no doubt that this special budget is not meaningless, but significant.

Liu Xiaobin clearly mentioned it on the phone. Based on this situation, Li Cunxun had already concluded that Britain was already carrying out a limited mobilization for war.

That is, Britain will make adjustments to the defense military industry.

Most of the special budget will be used to support arms companies to increase their production capacity.

Here, already

In the case of only considering the basic national conditions of the United Kingdom and not considering external factors, the British government's move can be understood. As one of the five nuclear powers, Britain has a relatively complete defense industry system, and even if you look at the world, Britain's military industry is not lagging behind. The problem is that the British military industry has a fatal flaw, which is a high degree of "internationalization."

After the end of World War II, Britain vainly tried to restore the influence of the "empire on which the sun never sets", and proposed a "comprehensive revitalization of the Ji Ge thugs", but under the influence of the cruel reality, not only did the minister who proposed the "Iron Curtain Policy" be driven out of the old Downing Street by voters, but also the "imperial dream" of Britain. It was also shattered, and since then it has hitched a ride on the American chariot and become the most loyal ally of the United States. During the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. According to the needs of the NATO bloc, Britain's military-industrial system has become an effective supplement to the United States, and has achieved some achievements that are still a source of pride for the British. For example, "lead the bomber, the Harrier fighter, the invincible-class aircraft carrier." Small "Challenger tanks" and so on. Enter the "post-Cold War period." "Because the biggest external threat suddenly disappeared, not only the British military industry has lost its direction, but the Western countries represented by NATO have also lost their goals. As a result of this, the military industry of the entire Western world shrank rapidly. In order to avoid the collapse of the national security system as a result, European countries took the lead in adopting the "internationalization." Integration of the vast military-industrial system formed during the Cold War. Thanks to its strong foundation, Britain became the winner of this "annexation movement" along with France and Germany. By the 2nd century, the British military industry had become fully "internationalized." "There is a background of international cooperation in almost all military projects, and even the design and construction of the "George V" class aircraft carrier, which has been hailed as "the greatest military project in British history", was carried out in cooperation with France, although France did not procure Chirac as originally promised. The French version of the "George V" class of aircraft carriers, but many key technologies come from France, and many contracts are subcontracted to French companies.

Since it is "international cooperation", it is naturally inseparable from trade.

Herein lies the problem, Britain's military industry is large but not independent enough.

In peacetime, this problem is not serious, after all, under the basic rules of the game, increasing international cooperation can not only reduce the risk of opening up and manufacturing costs, but also open up new markets and increase sales.

In times of war, the problem is very serious.

Although in anyone's opinion, because Britain has an absolute advantage in the Falklands dispute, it is certainly not Britain that provoked the war, and Western countries have no reason to sanction the "war victims" and it is impossible for them to deal with Argentina as they did in the first place. with the phrase "military embargo." Deal with Britain, but as long as the war breaks out, it doesn't matter whether Britain is a "war victim" or not. "The foreign policy of Western countries such as the United States and France will be affected. That is, in the absence of clarity in the international situation, these countries will certainly not openly support the British. In this way, Britain must prepare for war, that is, to lay the foundation for victory on its own strength in the absence of many Western countries, so as to make the international situation clear.

To do this, Britain had to strengthen the productive capacity of the military industry before the outbreak of war, that is, to carry out limited war mobilization.

When it comes to war mobilization, there are many troubles.

Among other things, no private arms company is willing to take risks with the government if there are no tangible benefits. In Li Cunxun's words, the British government must do one thing well, so that all arms companies can believe that if they follow the government, even if the war does not break out, they will not suffer.

For this to happen, the British government has to show sincerity.

The special budget of 700 million yuan is the "sincerity" of the British government.

According to the intelligence collected by the Military Intelligence Bureau, in addition to the 300 million yuan special budget provided to the intelligence agencies in accordance with regulations, it has been provided to dozens of arms enterprises to recruit workers, train technical personnel, start idle production lines, maintain some of the equipment on active duty, provide technical support, and so on.

There is no doubt that this is just the beginning.

In Liu Xiaobin's words, if Britain wants to make the most basic preparations before the outbreak of war, it needs to invest in Qiangzhou B in at least a few months. Other words. The first to invest in the introduction B is not even a fraction of enough.

The question is, will Britain prepare for the outbreak of war?

Although the military intelligence agency did not obtain conclusive evidence, Li Cunxun made the boldest judgment based on various indications.

In fact, even if Li Cunxun does not make a judgment, Pei Chengyi will make the same judgment.

Britain certainly believed that the war would break out in a few months.

There are several main reasons for this. First, the British Prime Minister signed a special budget after returning to China, and the investment of a special budget of more than 100 million yuan was the key to starting preparations for war. Second, Britain has sent a clear signal through European countries that Britain will never make concessions on the Falklands issue, and even if a war breaks out, Britain is confident of victory. Third, the United States has remained silent even though Britain has acted so aggressively, indicating that the United States has made a pledge that it will take concrete action to help Britain when necessary. Finally, the willingness of European countries to act as a microphone for Britain not only shows that they do not want the Republic to play a negative role in the Falklands issue, but also shows that European countries will not abandon Britain, and shows the ambivalence of European countries at a glance.

Li Cunxun asked Liu Xiaobin to contact Pei Chengyi in person. I just want to attract Pei Chengyi's attention.

Of course, the problem is not that simple.

For Pei Chengyi, the most troublesome thing is that he has to make his own decision whether to disclose this extremely important information to the Argentine authorities, and Li Cunxun and Liu Xiaobin did not make a decision for Pei Chengyi, because they did not know as much about the situation in Argentina as Pei Chengyi.

Pei Chengyi did not rush to make a decision, and decided to seek the opinions of several key assistants first.

"If the MIA's judgment is correct and Britain concludes that war will break out in a few months, it should let the Argentine authorities know about this." Long Hongen put the lighter that had been spinning in his hand for a long time into his pocket and said, "Anyway." This is an Argentine war, not ours. Keeping the Argentine authorities informed is the only way to make Argentina more vigilant. Of course, being able to provide such important information can also increase the influence and voice of the advisory group

Pei Chengyi smiled and threw the cigarette case that Dongfang Wen had placed on the table to Long Hongen.

Although Pei Chengyi never forbade his subordinates to smoke in front of him, after all, he used to smoke before, and he knew how painful it would be if he couldn't smoke in front of the chief, but Long Hongen and other officers still followed the old habit, as long as they were in front of Pei Chengyi, unless they got a clear and unmistakable permission, they had to endure it.

"I see it that way, but I don't think everything should be revealed to the Argentine authorities." Hu Jingan took the cigarette handed by Long Hongen, lit it and took two puffs. "It is necessary to warn the Argentine authorities, but it does not necessarily increase our influence and voice, after all, everyone knows that war will break out soon, and it is not uncommon for Britain to prepare for war." If we go too far, we will call into question the role of the advisory group by thinking that we are more eager to see the war break out. ”

Pei Chengyi nodded slightly and turned his gaze to Yang Shaobai

"It's true, the Argentine authorities have not trusted us very much." Yang Shaoyong smiled bitterly and said, "Of course, there is reason to believe that Theron has already regarded us as his own, but the Argentine army, especially those army generals, not only do they not take us seriously. And like the old nonsense, think that we are pushing Argentina into the abyss of war. I think that even the Argentine authorities must be warned. It is also necessary to disclose very limited information, and there is no need to make it clear. Talking about the unity of the cage is more likely to attract the attention of the Argentine authorities. After all, anyone can be in awe of the mysterious that cannot be understood. If the Argentine authorities could be convinced that we know much more than they do, they would not and could not treat us as dispensable, as they do now

Pei Chengyi shook his head with a smile, and said to Dongfang Wen who was sitting next to him, "What do you think?" ”

"Me?" Dongfang Wen was stunned for a moment, "Mr. Pei, forget my opinion, I'm just."

It's just a matter of saying it casually, Pei Chengyi patted Dongfang Wen's shoulder and said, "You have such a good performance in front of the Argentine president, you won't have stage fright in front of us, right?" ”

Dongfang Wen smiled bitterly and thought quickly.

As a civilian soldier, Dongfang Wen has never expressed his opinion at such an internal meeting of senior officers. Speaking before the President of Argentina meant something completely different, it was on behalf of the Advisory Group as a whole, not on behalf of individuals. Now express my opinion in front of Pei Chengyi and others. That is to represent the individual. It is definitely individual performance and individual ability that determines the future, not the ability of the whole collective, and it is no wonder that Dongfang is not nervous.

Pei Chengyi didn't urge, and waited patiently for a while.

"I agree with a few people, but I don't think there's any need to warn the Argentine authorities

Pei Chengyi frowned slightly, and motioned for Dongfang Wen to continue.

"It is not the British government that decides when the war will break out, but the Argentine government." Dongfang sniffed a cigarette, took a few puffs, and said, "From the information we have obtained, the Argentine authorities have a very clear understanding of the situation, and know that in the early stage of the war, they only need to deal with Britain, without considering third-party factors, and they also know that Britain has long increased its vigilance and will not enter the war unprepared. That is, there is no reason why the Argentine authorities should not be vigilant, given that Britain is already engaged in active diplomacy. In this way, we give warnings, which is tantamount to adding to the snake. In my opinion, even if our warning is taken seriously by the Argentine authorities, our influence and voice will not be increased, and from the perspective, in order to make the Argentine authorities, especially the Afghan army, pay attention to our opinions and suggestions, what we need to do is not to issue insignificant war alarms, but to take practical actions to help the Argentine army tide over the difficulties at a critical time. The more low-key we are now, the better it will be when we do it. ”

That is to say. Do nothing? ”

Dongfang Wen nodded at Pei Chengyi, indicating that this was what he meant.

Seeing Pei Chengyi's expression, the other few catties, the officer knew that Dongfang Wen's suggestion was closest to Pei Chengyi's thoughts.

In fact, Dongfang Wen's analysis is also the most in line with the actual situation, after all, he has been in contact with the Argentine authorities on behalf of the advisory group, so he knows the situation of the Argentine authorities best, and he also knows best how to use to get the Argentine authorities to pay more attention to the advisory group.

"That being the case. We'll just wait for the rabbit. Pei Chengyi glanced at his watch and said, "It's not early, everyone goes back to rest, although our attitude now is that Jiang Taigong is fishing, and those who wish to take the bait, but we also have to be prepared." You can't wait for the fish to be hooked before you come to make the soup. If nothing else, the Argentine authorities will soon find us, and then it will be time for us to put on a show. ”

Needless to say, several officers got up together to say goodbye.

In fact, Pei Chengyi and the others have long been standing in the center of the stage!