Chapter 14: Sudden Tension
It is assumed that no official invitation has been received from the government of Argent. Therefore, Pei Chengyi, a military adviser with no two or six qualities, did not directly make suggestions to Alfonso, but sent Alfonso the list of military purchases he drew up to Alfonso through the General Staff and in the form of military exchanges. What Pei Chengyi never expected was that the chief of staff of the Argentine Air Force did not have much assertiveness and almost adopted Pei Chengyi's suggestion.
On Lang Ri, the spokesman of the Argentine grass affairs exchange group announced the news of arms purchases.
There is no doubt that this news is shocking enough.
While the whole world believes that the Argentine military exchange delegation will sign several arms purchase contracts with the arms enterprises of the Republic of China with a total value of more than 100 billion yuan and open the curtain on a new round of the arms race, the actual situation is quite different, and Argentina has only signed a few arms purchase contracts with the equipment and equipment production groups set up by the China Heavy Group, the AVIC Group, and the Yuxin Group, which are restructured by a number of state-owned enterprises, with a total value of less than 100 million yuan.
After the initial shock, the Western news media, which were highly concerned about the matter, immediately saw the doorway.
Unlike in the past, it is not Gang who is acting as the "public opinion assaulter" this time, but AFP.
According to a report by Agence France-Presse, there is a great deal of mystery in the equipment procurement contracts with a total value of 100 million yuan, and to put it simply, the announced procurement amount is only the tip of the iceberg. According to official Argentine sources,! In the B procurement contract, in addition to the purchase of shelves, the small planer B yuan is used to purchase and maintain the parts and components of the existing equipment.
There is no doubt that these contracts have a lot of loopholes.
First of all, the fighter needs about Yi Yuan, and if you take into account the supporting equipment and the follow-up investment of equipment for 10,000 years, the Argentine Air Force needs to pay at least one Yi Yuan for this. There is no doubt that the contract price of "Youyi" is not enough to even buy a "bare metal" on the shelf. According to this, AFP believes that either the small concave sold to Argentina has shrunk significantly, and there is a lot less advanced equipment, so that the unit price is reduced to 700 million; Either there is a greasy contract "Tian 100 million yuan is just the initial agreed price, and the Argentine Air Force will pay more for purchases in the future." There is no doubt that AFP considers the latter much more likely, since Argentina has no reason to purchase a scaled-down version of the advanced fighter. According to AFP's analysis, the Argentine Air Force is likely to purchase in batches, and if it is divided into two batches, it will be concave and will eventually pay 100 million to 100 million yuan. In other words, the funds invested in the purchase of small 6 alone exceeded the amount of the mutual B contract officially announced by Argentina.
The second is that the maintenance cost of 100 million yuan cannot meet the actual needs at all. According to AFP estimates, about one-third of Argentina's army, navy and air force will need to undergo life-extension improvements in the coming year, and another one-third of their equipment will need to undergo mid-term overhauls. Because Argentina's main armament comes from the Republic, only the Republic's arms enterprises are able to provide maintenance services. Even if it were to be estimated in the most conservative way, i.e., all equipment that had reached the end of its designed service life would be decommissioned, and only one-third of the equipment would be repaired in the middle of the term, Argentina would need to invest about 100 million yuan in maintenance costs within a year. In other words, the average annual maintenance cost is as high as RMB. Unlike equipment procurement, the upfront investment in maintenance work is higher than the later investment, and it is not necessary to sign a maintenance contract in advance in order to provide timely maintenance for the equipment that needs to be maintained. As a result, Argentina will have to sign a large maintenance contract with the Republic's arms enterprises in the near future, and the total amount of maintenance will obviously not be enough to meet the demand.
Finally, there is the "initial" contract mentioned by the Argentine official in the news. In other words, this is only the beginning, not the whole story, of the contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars. If only the beginning, then how much will Argentina end up investing in advanced weapons and equipment? More importantly, there is no secret in Argentina's procurement of weapons and equipment from the Republic, so why should Argentina deliberately conceal it? Or has Argentina adjusted its procurement plan?
In the report, AFP threw out these questions.
In fact, this is also a question for other news outlets.
Agence France-Presse (AFP) was the first to make a comprehensive report, which has a lot to do with the EU Brain Summit being held in Toulouse, France.
After the London meeting, "the continental group of the European Union. That is, the intra-EU bloc of countries composed of France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg aimed at accelerating the political integration of the EU, at the insistence of France, accelerated the negotiation process of political integration, and the Toulouse brain summit was a direct result of this action.
There are too many reasons for France to make the decision at this time to speed up the process of political integration of the European Union.
In terms of influence, because the Yuan and government brains of dozens of countries signed the "Treaty of London" in London, which is enough to change the fate of mankind, France needs a hot event to weaken London's influence and let more people know that Europe is not only London, but also Paris. More importantly, the "London Treaty" has not only changed the fate of the entire human civilization, but also the transformation of various countries In the context of the complete destruction of nuclear weapons, the republics and the United States have been recognized and consolidated, Russia's regional hegemony has also been recognized, while the future of second-rate powers such as France and Britain is uncertain. According to the understanding of the French, the only way for France, Britain, or other European countries that are unwilling to be reduced to the international community is to achieve true unification and make Europe a country, not a bloc of many countries. Political integration is a prerequisite for reunification, so Britain must be brought into account, which has been obstructing the process of political integration.
I have to admit that the French are very picky.
Although the London Treaty is fundamentally an "unequal treaty" that protects the interests of the nuclear powers, among the nuclear powers, Britain is the one that loses the most benefits, or the one that gains the least. In the eyes of many, the only way to ensure the complete elimination of nuclear weapons is to make concessions to the other four nuclear powers, especially Russia, at the expense of Britain, and to ensure that the Treaty of London can be accepted by the Republic and the United States, so that it can be formally brought into force. If Britain refuses to make a choice in the treaty. That is, to make the maximum concessions, its comprehensive national strength is simply not able to support the huge arms expenditure. The problem is that Britain's concessions do not equate to a better future.
Shortly after the London conference, France shouted a slogan: Europe only needs a nuclear umbrella.
If France's slogan would not have been endorsed by any European country before the Treaty of London, now it is completely different, and in the context of the Treaty of London, many Europeans are not thinking about how many nuclear umbrellas they want, but whether they want them or not. Although in the eyes of the vast majority of Europeans, Europe needs a nuclear umbrella, at least until the complete elimination of nuclear weapons, Europe needs a strong enough nuclear umbrella, but in the case of the complete destruction of nuclear weapons, what Europe needs is not a nuclear umbrella, but a more realistic collective security system.
What kind of security system can meet the real needs?
This is the question that the EU Brain Summit in Toulouse aims to address. Before the summit was held, the French president made a very clear point in an interview with reporters, that is, Europe's security affairs should be decided by Europeans, and no hope should be pinned on others. Subsequently, the leaders of Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg expressed the same view that Europe should have an independent system of collective security.
There is only one key point, and what the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, and other countries have put forward is a "collective security system" rather than a "common defense system."
Although the two may not seem to be much different, the essence is different.
The "common defense system" is a military alliance of a defensive nature, that is, it only responds to aggression and does not serve as external expansion. It can be said that this is a relatively traditional form of military alliance, and the most representative is the NATO bloc. The focus of the "collective security system" is also defence, but it does not deny active expansionist actions, especially those initiated by the dominant powers. This is also the form of military alliances that have emerged only in recent years, the most representative of which is the intensive grouping dominated by the republic.
At this point, it is not difficult to understand the aggressive actions of AFP in Argentine arms purchases.
Through the news report of Agence France-Presse, France has sent a very clear signal to the United Kingdom, that the United Kingdom, as a member of Europe, should return to Europe, and only the European Union can provide effective security and interests for the United Kingdom, and only the European Union is the ultimate home of the United Kingdom.
Because it was too sudden for France to immediately reach agreement with important allies such as Germany and Italy, France used news media reports to convey signals rather than express its position directly.
Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported positively, but the deleted stories were even more daring and in-depth.
When AFP raised a few questions, Gang made a very straightforward analysis and speculation.
According to speculation, such as billion is just a "stepping stone." "According to the official information released by Argentina, the main items of this arms procurement are ammunition materials, not advanced equipment. Accordingly, it is certain that Argentina is preparing for war and is likely to start military action in the near future.
In order to prove this point, a lot of "evidence" has just been presented.
In addition to the large procurement of ammunition mentioned earlier, a very important point was just mentioned that several army officers from the Argentine military mission visited the premises of the Airborne Fighter Corps. According to several photos of the cloth, officers of the Argentine Army on the Army of the Republic. There was a great deal of interest in the Hungarian VTOL transport plane, which not only flew on the transport plane, but also inquired in detail about the performance of the transport aircraft in the Indian war. Accordingly, it was determined that the Argentine Army would purchase from the Republic the most advanced tactical transport aircraft in the world.
Here's the question, what is the purpose of Argentina's purchase of VTOL tactical transport aircraft?
Strictly speaking, Argentina is not under serious ground threat, with Chile separated from the Andes Mountains to the west, Bolivia to the north being poor and backward, and Brazil, which is a little powerful, has no ambitions for expansion. What's more, Argentina does not have too many territorial disputes with neighboring countries. It can be said that for Argentina, which is in a remote corner of the country, even if it wants to resist foreign aggression, it is not the army that will be built first, but the air force.
There is only one scenario in which Argentina needs an air assault force, and that is to regain the Falklands by surprise.
Accordingly, an extremely bold prediction was made, that is, whether Argentina would start a war or not, and the scale of Argentina's military operations could be basically determined based on the amount of Argentine purchases.
I have to admit that Gang's analysis is much more professional than AFP's.
Just two days later, the Argentine Army signed a "trial agreement" with AVIC. According to the agreement, the Argentine Army will lease the dart from AVIC Group at a rent of trillion yuan for a period of 3 years, during which the AVIC Group is responsible for maintenance and technical assistance, and after the lease expires, the Argentine Army can purchase the leased 10,000 yuan at a preferential price, and can conduct large-scale procurement negotiations with AVIC Group according to the results of the trial.
As soon as the news was released, the Western world breathed a sigh of relief.
According to estimates, if Argentina wants to capture the Falklands by surprise, it will need to invest at least one brigade of ground forces. Even if the ground forces are deployed in batches and the combat personnel are transported to the Falklands by civilian aircraft after seizing the airfield, the Argentine Army will need at least a tactical airlift force capable of transporting combat battalions at a time, that is, a vertical take-off and landing tactical transport aircraft that is about the same level as a blade. There is no doubt that four 2 feet will not do much at all, and at most a few reconnaissance units will be transported to the Falklands, and Argentina will not be able to seize Stanley Airport with a few scouts.
The question is, will Argentina wait until 3 years later?
When it comes to this issue, the news media's views are divided.
In the opinion of the deletion, Argentina will definitely not delay the recovery of the Falklands until three years later, otherwise Argentina has no reason to purchase so many ammunition and materials at this time, after all, the Republic is not a France in a hurry, and it is impossible to impose a military embargo on Argentina during the war. If Argentina is prepared to take action in three years' time, it should use the same amount of money to purchase more advanced equipment, so that the troops can master the use of advanced equipment in the country, so as to maximize the combat capability of the troops.
In the opinion of AFP, it is very likely that Argentina will start military action in three years, after all, Argentina's arms purchase list is a long-term contract, and it is very good to be able to cash in within three years. No matter how Argentina intends to recover the Falklands, it must have a strong enough military force, and it must adjust its current national defense system to prepare for war. Not to mention Argentina, even if it is a first-class power, it is impossible to fight whoever it wants, and it is necessary to prepare for war in advance.
For example, the Republic prepared for the War of Japan and the War of India for three years each. Even if the scale of the Falklands War is not too large, it is normal for Argentina to spend three years preparing for it.
It is clear that AFP represents the different interests of the United States and Europe.
According to the view, the war will definitely break out in the near future, and the EU will certainly not be able to complete the process of political integration in the near future, and will not be able to defend British interests in the South Atlantic as a unified country. Under these circumstances, the only way for Britain to retain sovereignty over the Falklands was to turn to the United States. According to AFP's point of view, the war can only break out in three years at the earliest, and the EU will definitely be able to complete the political integration process and initially achieve reunification within three years, as long as Britain joins the EU political integration process, the Falklands issue will become the EU's problem, and the EU will be able to defend the Falklands in the name of defending its sovereignty.
Because of the divergence of views in the Western world, the Falklands issue became a hot issue for a while.
What is quite surprising is that several major British news media have not made any surprising analysis and speculation, except for focusing on Jangentine's arms purchases.
Key Old 4, a new piece of news shocked the whole world.
On the same day, Britain's Sky TV reported the results of exploration by Standard Oil, that is, the potential reserves of rare metal deposits in the waters near the Falklands are likely to exceed 400 million tons, which is enough for all mankind to use the field year if calculated according to the global consumption of rare metals in 2 baht years. More importantly, this is a preliminary exploration result, and if the scope of exploration is expanded, more rare metal deposits may be discovered. According to Sky TV's commentary, it is optimistically estimated that the reserves of rare metal deposits in the waters near the Falklands are between 100 million and B tons.
It didn't take long for several Argentine news outlets to report on it. Although there are discrepancies in the specific data, according to the information released by Argentine television, the rare metal reserves near the Falklands are calculated by two tons of metal products, but the impact is not much different, because one ton of rare metal is enough for all mankind to use blade years.
Now, the whole world is boiling.
For the vast majority of people, what needs to be concerned about is not when the war will break out, but how large the Falklands war will be fought for the sake of resources worth more than trillions of dollars. For some so-called situation analysis experts, the concern is whether the two most powerful countries will intervene.
At this time, Pei Chengyi was on an international flight to Buenos Aires.
Although according to the original arrangement, he would go to Argentina with his family, but after receiving the latest information, Li Cunxun changed the schedule for Pei Chengyi, and let the army general take the invitation letter from Argentine President Serón and board the international flight arranged by the military intelligence agency.
Leaving early didn't make Pei Chengyi feel uncomfortable, he had to go sooner or later anyway.
For him, this is nothing more than a new "trip".