Chapter 15: A Thousand Thoughts of the Wise

After the flight attendant goes out. Pei Chengyi let the accompanying CIA agents pull his heart.

Although according to Pei's guess, all the flight attendants on the plane, as well as most of the passengers in the first class, were agents of the Military Intelligence Agency, he was still not used to reading important documents in front of strangers. I don't like to think about problems in front of strangers. The biggest benefit that technology has brought to travel more than ever before is the increased level of comfort. Although it still takes about two hours to get from Beijing to Buenos Aires, each passenger in First Class has a private space. Be able to do what you want to do while traveling. In a few years, a new generation of civil airliners with new technology will be introduced. Travel time will be much shorter, and it will only take about an hour to travel from Beijing to Buenos Aires. When the time comes to cross half the world and travel to a neighboring city there is none.

Taking out the reader that Li Cunxun gave him, Pei Chengyi adjusted his sitting posture before calling up the documents inside.

Pei Chengyi is not a conspiracy theorist, but in his capacity, he can know a lot of inside stories that ordinary people don't know, and the inside story and propaganda themselves are the products of conspiracy. Not to mention anything else, the "rare resources of the Falklands" that are being speculated are themselves a big conspiracy today.

After a while, Xi Chengyi knew in his heart.

The Falklands do have deposits of rare metals, but not on the bottom of the sea, on land, to be precise, near the highest point of Mount Adam on the island of West Falkland, Great Malvina. What's more, the proven reserves are not billions of dollars. It's not more than 100 million tons, but less than "10,000 tons." From an economic point of view, such a small reserve does not even have the value of exploitation. Although it is clearly mentioned in the intelligence that the prospective reserves of rare metal deposits in the Falklands are likely to be much larger than the proven reserves, in the case of only 10,000 tons of proven reserves. Neither Argentina nor the United Kingdom, nor the Republic or the United States, have reason to go to war.

That's the problem. How many rare metals are there in the Falklands?

Although Pei Chengyi was very curious, he couldn't make an accurate judgment based on the information he had. In Pei's view, perhaps until decades later, it will not be possible to say how many valuable resources the Falklands have that are worth fighting for by war. In other words, it is not the so-called expensive that leads to the Falklands crisis

Not for resources. What other reason is there for two countries to go into a big fungo?

Pei Chengyi didn't think much about this issue, because in his opinion, Argentina and Britain are just objects to be used, and it is definitely not the two countries concerned that really control the overall situation, or decide war and peace.

Switch angles. The problem is not so complicated.

From the standpoint of the republic, a war born on the other side of the globe will not have any impact on the fundamental national interests, and there is no need to worry about the negative effects of the war, that is, the republic can go on a bold adventure without much certainty. As a soldier, Pei Chengyi knows very well that at this time, encouraging Argentina to use military means to solve the Falklands issue is an out-and-out adventure. In Pei Chengyi's opinion. With Wang Yuanqing's strategic vision, it is impossible not to be unaware of the huge risks that exist. Although Pei Chengyi is not sure whether Yuan has more plans, or has greater certainty. However, Wang Yuanqing's decision to make such a major decision before leaving office is enough to prove that even if the worst outcome occurs, it will not cause much harm to the fundamental interests of the republic.

The so-called slap on the wrist is not loud, only the Republic of China is promoted, and the situation in the Falklands cannot be uncontrollable.

From the point of view of the United States, a war born in the South Atlantic can also bring many benefits. Judging from the overall international situation, with the signing of the "London Treaty," the general trend of the Sino-US Cold War will be impossible to change for the foreseeable decades. It is undeniable that there is an essential difference between the Sino-US Cold War and the US-Soviet Cold War in the century, that is, it is not the United States that has economic and technological superiority, but the Republic. Although the United States has advantages in some aspects, such as political system, environmental pressures, and per capita resources, it was the economy and technology that had the greatest impact on the Cold War. More importantly, the strategic attempt of the United States to "encircle" the republic has completely failed, and it is impossible to limit the scope of the republic's activities through geopolitics and seize the initiative in the Cold War from beginning to end, as it did with the Soviet Union. Under such circumstances, the United States will either willingly become a regional power or will try to change the unfavorable situation. In the case of the latter, the United States has only one way out, and that is to regain the initiative and use various methods to make the republic pay more in the Cold War. In fact, this is precisely the core idea of the US policy toward China after the old years. After the war in India, the fundamental situation of the Cold War between China and the United States changed as the peripheral problems that plagued the last republic were resolved, and the republic seized the initiative. In the face of new challenges, the United States has few options, and if it wants to seize the initiative, it must let the Republic lose a war, and it is a war that cannot and should not be lost. In the case of inferior overall strength to the republics. The United States must learn from the painful experience and create the most favorable conditions for the imminent outbreak of war. Across the globe. The South Atlantic is certainly the most desirable option.

Looking at these two points clearly, it is not difficult to understand that even if the Falklands are a coral reef with nothing, it will become the focus.

Thinking of this, Pei Chengyi also breathed a sigh of relief.

Back in the force years ago. There are people...; The view of the "Sino-American Cold War". It is believed that as the comprehensive national strength of the two countries will eventually surpass that of the United States to become the most powerful country in the world, the contradictions between the old and new hegemons will be unavoidable, and under the shadow of "terror and destruction," the two sides can only decide between the male and the female through a protracted "cold war." Although the Cold War will bring great disasters, it will be much less costly than a "hot war" that can destroy the entire human civilization. The problem is that the Cold War between China and the United States is certainly very different from the Cold War of the Li Century. It's definitely not the same. In other words, no one can say what the Cold War between China and the United States will be like.

If the outside world is still relatively optimistic about the Cold War between China and the United States, Pei Chengyi's view is completely different.

As a high-ranking general of the Republic, before becoming a general, that is, during the Peninsula War, Pei Chengyi realized that compared with the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, the biggest feature of the Cold War between China and the United States is that it is "more intense" or "closer to a hot war"

You must know that in the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, which lasted for nearly half a century, no matter how sinister the situation was, most of the two major powers never directly confronted each other, and China and the United States stood on the battlefield early. Although the war on the peninsula did not turn into a hot war between China and the United States, and the scope of the war did not go beyond the peninsula, it was not difficult to imagine that as long as both the Republic and the United States took a step forward instead of making a rational compromise, it was not difficult to imagine that the "cold war" would turn into a "hot war." After indirect confrontation turned into direct confrontation, the situation would certainly get out of control, and no matter what the outcome was, it would become a great disaster for the human world. What's more. The war on the peninsula is not the end, but the beginning. In the years that followed, both the Japanese War and the Indian War almost became all-out wars between the Republic and the United States. In Pei Chengyi's opinion. If the ruling party in the United States had been a relatively radical Republican Party rather than a moderate Democratic Party during this period, the Japanese War would have been a symbol of the demise of human civilization.

In hindsight, Pei Chengdun's worries were a bit unfounded.

From a different perspective, with the eyes of the time. Without the eyes of people who come over, Pei Chengyi's worry is not too much. During the war in Japan, if the United States had defended the interests of its "allies in the Western Pacific," it would not have stood idly by, and Japan would not have been so badly defeated. During the Indian War, if the United States had fulfilled its promises, the Republic would have been at war with two of its most powerful adversaries. What's more, both Japan and India are nuclear powers, if the United States insists on entering the war. There is a high probability that both regional wars will turn into nuclear wars.

The problem is that, in any case, there is also a "cold war" rather than a "hot war" between China and the United States

The most important characteristic of the "cold war" is that indirect confrontation has replaced direct struggle, and proxy war has become the main mode of military struggle. If measured by this standard, it begins with the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War in the honorifold year. The Cold War between China and the United States broke out, because in this regional war. Both China and the United States influenced the course of the war by supporting proxies, and it was only at the last moment that the Republic directly intervened to end the war. Of course, according to some people's opinions, there can be no Cold War between China and the United States until the end of the war in India. Because during this sunny year, only the United States influenced the war through proxies, and the republic directly entered the war. That is, between the year of the grandchild and the calendar year. In fact, the relationship between China and the United States is a "semi-cold war and a semi-hot war". It was only when both the Republic and the United States influenced the war through their rulers that the Cold War pattern really took shape.

Whichever view is correct, the essence of the Sino-US Cold War will not change.

Until neither the Republic nor the United States is sure that they will defeat their opponents through a "hot war," or if the cost of a "hot war" is too great, neither China nor the United States will rashly embark on the stage of direct confrontation, nor will they easily give up the opportunity to weaken their opponents through proxy wars.

It was precisely after seeing this relationship clearly that Pei Chengyi breathed a sigh of relief.

Although it was the Republic and the United States that drove the Falklands crisis, neither side had any intention of standing in the forefront, and both wanted to achieve limited goals through a war of limited scale. There is no doubt that a regional war of limited scale will be an arena for military personnel, especially excellent military personnel. It can even be said that before accepting Argentina's invitation, or before accepting Li Cunxun's arrangement, Pei Chengyi took this into account and knew that the conflict on Beggar's Island would not unfold to an uncontrollable step, and would definitely end in a compromise way in the end. Otherwise, he would not have agreed to go to Buenos Aires.

On the tip of the matter, the information obtained by the Military Intelligence Bureau has long confirmed Pei Chengyi's speculation.

According to the intelligence provided to Pei Chengyi by the Military Intelligence Agency, as early as the beginning of the defense year, that is, when rare metal deposits appeared on Falklands. The United States reached a secret agreement with the United Kingdom, and then American companies stepped in to the exploration work. Don't say anything else. This alone is enough to determine the influence of the United States in the Falklands. In other words, if a war breaks out on the Falklands, the investment of American companies in the Falklands will be threatened, and the small United States will have a reason to intervene in the war. Although according to the judgment of the Military Intelligence Agency, as long as the Republic maintains a tough stance during the Falklands conflict, takes certain substantive actions, and makes full use of international public opinion, the United States will think twice before acting, and it is unlikely that it will directly intervene in the conflict and at most provide support to Britain within its capacity, one thing is certain: the United States will definitely not sit idly by. As the situation intensifies. However, the United States has not made a clear statement for a long time, and has even repeatedly expressed its willingness to act as a mediator between Britain and Afghanistan to provide maximum support and cooperation for the peaceful settlement of the Falklands dispute. There is no idea of full involvement of the United States.

Although the Military Intelligence Agency did not give the final verdict on whether the United States would send troops to the war, according to the intelligence agency's analysis in the intelligence, there is enough reason to believe it. The United States will never risk intervening in the Falklands conflict unless a third party intervenes, or there is a situation in which the United States has to intervene personally, such as a protracted war or Britain suffering unbearable losses.

Seeing this, Pei Chengyi also understood.

Pei Chengyi has enough reason to believe that Li Cunxun has long mastered this information and knows that as long as he doesn't tear his face. The United States can tolerate some level of provocation, such as sending military advisers to Argentina. Pei Chengyi even has reason to believe that the republic has reached some kind of agreement, or tacit understanding, with the United States.

It is not strange for the great powers to reach secret agreements or tacit understandings in the midst of struggles.

Fundamentally. To put it simply, the confrontation between the republic and the United States is the struggle between the national capitalists of the republic and the Wall Street consortium in the United States. Leave aside all the public opinion and propaganda used to confuse the people, such as "patriotism." Nationalist collectivism. I believe that the vast majority of citizens of the Republic and the United States will not choose to appease each other, but will choose to cooperate, because only cooperation can achieve a win-win situation and bring more benefits to both sides.

Interest groups take advantage of inter-state struggles to gain popular support, especially the support of voters. There are many high-profile reasons, but simply put, this is the so-called "political need". It is not difficult to understand why the US news media preached the Republic as a "totalitarian state" without democracy and freedom. The news media of the republic want to promote the United States as a "dark state" controlled by monopolies and oligarchs. Arguably. Struggle is a form in itself, not an end.

Since she is a concubine, she has to serve the purpose.

In other words, it is not surprising that the transition from confrontation to cooperation can be achieved through other means, and at less cost or more effectively. Don't say anything else. At the end of the Indian War, the United States provided the Republic with information on India's nuclear weapons deployment, which was a form of cooperation.

Since there is a basis for cooperation, it is normal to reach a secret agreement or have a tacit understanding.

Of course, there are many secret agreements and tacit understandings between the great powers. For example, many years ago, the Republic of China and the United States reached a "non-exclusive maritime basic security agreement". According to the agreement, the submarine confrontation is a non-direct confrontation. Exactly, within a few decades. The submarine confrontation between the Republic and the United States will intensify. For example, around the year of the regiment, after the breakdown of international negotiations on the "demilitarization of space", the Republic reached a tacit agreement with the United States to a certain extent, that is, not to take offensive actions against the opponent's military targets in space during military operations. It is precisely because of the several large-scale wars over the years that they have not developed into direct wars between the two major powers.

No doubt. The republic needs a new secret agreement with the United States.

Pei Chengyi is not an intelligence officer engaged in secret work, nor is he a high-level leader, so it is not clear whether he has reached a secret agreement with the United States, but according to his understanding, Yuan asked him to go to Argentina as a senior military adviser to help Argentina establish a modern military command system and teach the experience of modern warfare, which is enough to prove that the Republic has at least reached some tacit agreement with the United States.

Figure this out. Pei Chengyi's mood relaxed a lot.

As long as it does not turn into a war between major powers, no matter how far the Falklands conflict goes, it will not have much impact on Pei Chengyi's personal future. In other words, the trip to Argentina was only good for him, not bad. If Argentina wins, Pei Chengyi will become the biggest hero, adding a lot of color to his already brilliant career as a professional soldier; If Argentina loses. The problem is not Pei Chengyi, after all, Argentina is not a republic, and the Argentine army is not a republican ** team.

Since there is no harm, what is there to worry about?

Of course, Pei Chengyi must consider another question, that is, what he can get out of this war. Perhaps the average person cares more about what he loses, while the more motivated person cares more about what he can gain. It can be said that this is the biggest difference between successful people and ordinary people.

From Pei Chengyi's standpoint, there are not many things he can get, but there is only one thing he wants.

To know. So far, the country has not won a proxy war with sufficient influence. Nor did a single general of the republic make a name for himself in military conflicts in other regions. If Pei Chengyi breaks this record, he will command the Argentine army to achieve the final victory in the Falklands War. He will become the most influential military man in the republic, and all he needs is influence.

I have to admit it. Before leaving for Buenos Aires, Pei Chengyi thought of this.

One could even say. When he met Li Cunxun, Bae Chengyi knew what he could get from the South Atlantic battlefield on the other side of the world.

If you look farther, there is every reason to believe that this is likely to become Pei Chengyi's curtain call on the military stage!