One by one, Pei Chengyi has a problem. [Full text reading] In general, the more violent the trouble. On the contrary, the less likely it is to fight. Taking the Falklands conflict as an example, before the start of the war, both Britain and Afghanistan did not make excessive noise, but only expressed their attitudes, and then the war broke out. Although the nature of the Syrian-Israeli war is not the same as the Falklands conflict, in any case, the ownership of the Falklands is not much of a laugh with the survival of Britain and Afghanistan, and the ownership of the Golan Heights directly determines the fundamental national interests of Syria and Israel, but as a standard regional conflict, there is no need to make a big noise before the war when neither country is willing and cannot fight hard, but should keep a low profile and strive to win victory through a surprise attack.

Obviously, this situation is diametrically opposed to the subsequent development.

"Didn't figure it out?" Li Cunxun saw the doubts in Pei Chengyi's heart.

Pei Chengyi smiled bitterly, he didn't want to pretend to understand in front of the director of military intelligence.

"Actually, Mossa had been in secret contact with us at that time, and he expressed some kind of intention.

"Willingness?"

Li Cunxun nodded and said: "According to Mossard's meaning, as long as we remain neutral in the Syrian-Israeli conflict, Israel will make greater concessions on the issue of Palestinian statehood, that is, hand over Gaza and the West Bank to the Palestinian Authority, and stop building Jewish settlements in disputed areas." It is even possible to make concessions on the issue of governance of the holy city of Jerusalem. ”

"The question is, what's in it for us?"

"You don't think it's good?"

Pei Chengyi didn't speak, although he knew that there were benefits, but he couldn't stand up to Syria.

"It can be said that in the situation at that time, Israel had already made great concessions, and these favorable conditions helped us a lot." Li Cunxun smiled and said, "If you think about it, before the Syrian-Israeli war, we had not expanded into the Middle East, and in order to maintain our image as a great power, we could only make a fuss about the issue of Palestinian statehood, so as to favor Arab countries in our basic policies. When the Israeli authorities make the concessions they promised, as Mosa promised, our Middle East policy has achieved significant results, signaling that there is another option besides the Camp David plan, such as the Shanghai plan. Of course, the name does not matter, the point is that we have come up with a new solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and it is likely to be effective. How big is the impact? Maybe we can't see it, after all, we are soldiers. As long as you change your perspective and stand in the position of a politician, you should know how much benefit there is. To put it simply, if all goes well. In 20 to 30 years, we will be the regional hegemon in the Middle East, and this will not lead to a large-scale regional war, and we will even be able to force the US authorities to withdraw on their own initiative

"The problem is, the conflict still broke out."

"yes, I can't run." Li Cunxun sighed and said, "Although in the eyes of the outside world, war is an inevitable product of the accumulation of contradictions to a certain time, but in some cases, war is only a product of terms that cannot be negotiated. "The tearful book bar is less concave factory, more salary, more

"What do you mean?" Pei Chengyi immediately frowned.

"I'm afraid you won't believe it at all. If a few years ago, we or the Israeli authorities had been able to make concessions on the last issue; The Syrian-Israeli war will not break out. Li Cunxun shook his head with a wry smile and said, "At that time, we reached agreement on several major issues, and there was only one issue that was not negotiated, and that was Hamas. ”

"Hamas?" Pei Chengyi felt a little dizzy.

"It seems that Hamas has nothing to do with the Golan Heights, after all, the Gaza Strip and the Golan Heights are one in the south and the other in the north, and Hamas is a dragon on the Hamas River, at most it will light a few fires in the Gaza Strip. In fact, how to solve the Hamas problem has a lot to do with this conflict. Li Cunxun paused for a moment and said, "At that time, our request was that the Israeli authorities use the opportunity of the Syrian-Israeli war to eradicate Hamas, and for this we can provide necessary intelligence assistance, and even send special forces to assist the Israeli authorities in their actions." ”

"Why eradicate Hamas?"

"Why?" Li Cunxun was stunned for a moment, and then said with a smile, "According to other terms, Israel will return the Gaza region to Palestine, if Hamas cannot be eradicated, Palestine will definitely be divided, and even if the state-building work is completed, it will not be possible to become a normal country, and our efforts will be meaningless." More importantly, at this point, we will either abandon Palestine and leave millions of Palestinians to fend for themselves, and let the United States continue to use Israel to control the Middle East, or we can take the opportunity to enter Gaza and eradicate Hamas with our own power. There is no doubt about it, no matter how you choose. The result was a disaster for all of us. ”

"That is, this was deliberately arranged by the United States?"

Li Cunxun smiled and nodded. said, "Your reaction is quite fast." Indeed, it was later confirmed that the Mossa had to contact us, and the backers behind it were the American authorities. In fact, the Israeli authorities do not want our support by making concessions on the issue of Palestinian statehood. Of course, the United States will not let Israel go to us. According to the intelligence we gathered later, the idea of the United States was very simple: first to keep us out of the Syrian-Israeli conflict, let Israel teach Syria a good lesson, and then drag us into the Gaza quagmire, and finally let the United States intervene to solve the problem. When the time comes, the United States will not only sell favors, but also gain benefits, and all we can gain is loss and infamy. ”

"So what happened to Israel and Syria before the war broke out?" *Note: Yes, because we do not have a transaction with Mossade. So it's even more complicated for the Middle East to talk about Chiang. Li Cunxun sighed and said, "Actually, at that time, neither Syria nor Israel was willing to use military means to resolve the dispute over the Golan Heights. It is easy to understand that Israel thinks so, after all, Israel is a rentier, and maintaining the status quo will ensure Israel's national interests. The key to the Syrian authorities' thinking is that Allende did not get any promises in Beisu, otherwise he would not have rushed to Tehran. ”

"This has been arranged a long time ago?"

Li Cunxun smiled and said: "In fact, our main policy is the same as your original proposal, that is, not to directly come forward and use Iran to agitate Syria while pulling Russia into the water. The problem is that the Iranian authorities were so anxious that they sent most of Allende's Russian-made weapons to Syria during his visit to Tehran. Although this can be seen as a deep friendship between the two countries, it is seen by others. For example, in the eyes of the Russian president, this is a clear signal that Iran is ready to join us. ”

Pei Chengyi frowned slightly, as if he understood something.

"Now, you should know why Russia did not participate in the Syrian-Israeli war, right?"

"It's not difficult to understand this, I thought that Iran was doing a bit too much, but I didn't expect that this was an act of the Iranian authorities themselves."

"You think this is our arrangement?"

"Why can't it be an arrangement by the Military Intelligence Agency?" The tear book bar dumps the concave factory less, more salary, more

Li Cunxun smiled and motioned for Pei Chengfeng to continue.

"Although the involvement of Russia in the Syrian-Israeli conflict can exert maximum pressure on the United States, the precondition is that Russia must have interests in the Middle East, that is, Russia must have a foothold.

There is no doubt that Iran is Russia's only foothold in the Middle East. I had suggested dragging Russia into the quagmire through Iran. The prerequisite is to maintain Iran's alliance with Russia, not to draw Iran into our camp. Of course, we can't make decisions for Iran. After Iran "abandoned the darkness and turned to the light", my proposal was no longer feasible. In other words, as long as the Russian president has a little brains, he will not get involved in the Syrian-Israeli war. Pei Chengyi paused for a moment and said, "In this case, whether Iran gives free aid to Syria with Russian-made weapons will not have an impact on Russia's decision-making, so letting Iran take this step will not only test Russia's reaction, but also make the republic a little further away from the war." I'm not sure the CIA did it, but if I had to choose, I would

"It seems that my original judgment was not wrong, you didn't do intelligence work, it's really a big loss." Li Cunxun said with a smile, "As you said, it was indeed arranged by us to let Iran provide free assistance to Syria with Russian-made weapons. Of course, Iran is not trading at a loss. Because we will pay half of the cost of the aid in the form of selling weapons and equipment at cost price, depending on the amount of aid. In other words, Iran is only half out of the front, but it has all the benefits. What we get, as you say, is a little further from the war. ”

"If that were the case, Israel would have no choice."

"It is in this way that we can underestimate Israel's military might, but not the Mossad's capabilities. According to the information we later had, before Allende reached Tehran, the Mossard had accurate information that Iran would send a large amount of obsolete Russian-made equipment to Syria, and that we would pay for it. Li Cunxun smiled bitterly and said, "I have to say that Iran's intelligence secrecy is very bad, or the Iranian authorities have something else."

"You are"

"We recently got a piece of information about what Mossa had gained in Tehran. It is quite possible that it is related to the deliberate leakage of secrets by the Iranian authorities. In fact, we were suspicious of the Iranian authorities after we learned that Mossard had known about the aid plan in advance. After all, the Iranian authorities have enough reason to create this intelligence leak. ”

Pei Chengyi nodded slightly. said that he understood what Li Cunxun meant.

It was this intelligence leak. Let the Israeli authorities realize that war is inevitable, and if Syria receives assistance and then strikes suddenly, not only will the strike not be very effective, but it may even cause Israel to lose the Golan Heights. The General Staff conducted a similar war game and came to the conclusion that if Israel launched a surprise attack at the end of the year, that is, after the completion of Iran's aid to Syria, the probability of losing the war was more than 60 percent, and the probability of losing the Golan Heights was more than 80 percent. It is impossible for the Israeli authorities not to be unaware of the stakes involved, and therefore not to take action. The ideal option for Israel is to act before Syria's defense is strengthened, to break Syria's military power, and even if it receives Iranian assistance, it can only be used to make up for the losses.

The next thing that happened didn't need Li Cunxun to explain.

In the months before the outbreak of the war. In addition to adjusting military deployments and importing from the United States a batch of munitions specifically designed to strike surface targets, the most thorough thing the Israeli authorities have done is to collect military intelligence on Syria, especially in relation to the deployment of troops.

I have to admit that it is a miracle that a country with a population of less than 40,000 thugs has such an intelligence agency as Mossard.

To admit more, Mossa has done a lot of miracles.

Judging from the events that followed the war, in the months leading up to the war, Mossa had to do a lot of very important things, such as clearly demarcating the deployment of the main military forces in Syria. In Li Cunxun's words, for the sake of small workers, Syria's defense forces were paralyzed in a round of strikes. Mossa had the personal data of Syrian officers at the rank of major and above, and had arranged for thousands of intelligence analysts to deal with the information of these Syrian officers. According to information later revealed by Al Jazeera, before the outbreak of the war, Mosa had the most powerful "Jewish flower." The name of the Israeli female spy who is good at gathering intelligence through erotic seduction touched the bed of the Syrian defense minister and the chief of the general staff, and almost slept with Syrian President Allende.

It can be said that in the intelligence war before the start of the war, Syria lost completely.

This did not surprise Pei, because Syria's loss of the war was an inevitable consequence.

After doing enough intelligence work, it is not surprising that Israel has crushed the Syrian defense forces in a surprise attack.

Four returned to Japan in April. On an uneventful day, war broke out just as more than 40,000 Syrians were preparing to start a new day of work and life. Reading the most chopped chapter, choose the tear book, and the Israeli Air Force rewrote history within 4 hours.

According to the war report released by the Israeli authorities, after the outbreak of the war, the success rate of the bombing was too high, far exceeding the normal level.

The great success of the Israeli Air Force is tantamount to the crushing defeat of the Syrian Defense Forces.

Although the Syrian authorities did not admit to a crushing defeat at the beginning of the war. But the truth cannot be falsified, especially since the sky is full of various reconnaissance satellites, and the Syrian authorities cannot hide the truth.

According to the results of the Military Intelligence Agency, within an hour, the Syrian Defense Forces (IDF) was bombed in the air defense positions, the main air base in the Knife Block, the phantom in the equipment warehouse in the army camp, and the Naval Base in the Dianza were all bombed and all destroyed or rendered incapacitated. According to relevant information, after the end of the first round of high-intensity bombardment by the Israeli Air Force, Syria has lost its defense capability only by the end of the fierce fighting of the fighters.

This result was not only expected by the world at that time, but also beyond the imagination of most people.

At that time, what surprised Pei Chengyi the most was the time chosen by the Israeli Air Force for the assault.

April is not a special day, and early morning is not the best time for assault. It was this unexpected choice that caught the Syrian air force and air defense forces off guard. It can be said that the Jews once again defeated a strong enemy with wisdom. Although in the 4th place, the cost of small fighters is quite huge compared to previous conflicts and wars, but compared to the results of the harvest and the great significance of this round of assault, this loss is nothing. More importantly, according to the deduction made by the General Staff of the Republic, because the Syrian authorities have been prepared to focus on a surprise strike at night, the Israeli Air Force is likely to lose one-third of its combat strength, that is, about a bladed combat aircraft, according to the conventional tactic, that is, if it launches a surprise attack at night. In this way, the loss of only a few fighters is completely within the tolerance of the Israeli Air Force.

Within a few days. The Syrian Army launched several counterattacks, only to be bombed back by the Israeli Air Force.

In fact, until the ceasefire was declared by both sides, the Israeli Air Force did not increase the scale of its bombing, and apart from supplementary bombing of some targets that were not blown up in the first round of assaults, the Israeli Air Force's greatest action was to deal with the infantry units of the Syrian Army and assist the Israeli Army in the Golan Heights to hold the defensive line. The Israeli authorities have not taken the opportunity to expand the gains of the war, nor have they targeted the Syrian people, indicating that they do not want to expand the scale of the conflict, let alone the overwhelming majority of Arab countries, to change the situation in the Middle East, which is already beneficial to Israel. In a sense, what the Israeli authorities do is also the choice of the US government.

Faced with this situation. All the Syrian authorities could do, except for shouting for revenge, was to let the infantry charge.

There is no doubt that the Syrian authorities have no way to reverse the unfavorable situation.

In this way, the Syrian-Israeli war has become a stage for great powers.

Tomorrow 7, after the conflict broke out, under the joint mediation of the Republic, the United States, Russia and the European Union, the Syrian and Israeli authorities unified an unconditional ceasefire before the end of March and sent representatives to Cairo to negotiate a ceasefire and an armistice. The tear book bar dumps the concave coffee factory less, more chopping, more

Although neither side has announced the end of the state of exchange, the Syrian-Israeli war, known as the "whirlwind war", has ended.

In the eyes of many. The United States has made a beautiful comeback in the Middle East, not only teaching Syria, which has always been disobedient. It has also curbed the Republic's expansion in the region, and even some Western news media believe that the biggest beneficiary of the Syrian-Israeli war is not Israel, but the United States. But these people ignore a very crucial factor, which is that the republic is not involved in the Syrian-Israeli war, and does not even support Syria in its position. That is, in the sense that it was this attitude of the republic that led to the defeat of Syria, then the republic must have something else.