Volume 12 Prelude to the Great War Chapter 6 A Glimpse of the Leopard in the Tube

"With your ability. It is not difficult to understand that the defeat of Syria is the inevitable outcome Xi" Li doubted for a moment and said. "It's just not clear how deeply you understand the situation in the Middle East.

"The situation in the Middle East after the Syrian-Israeli war?"

Li Cunxun nodded slightly. said: "To be precise, it should be to safeguard the interests of the republic, what else should we do, and what should we do?" ”

"Since there is plenty of time. Let me guess. Pei Chengyi knew that Li Cunxun was testing him, and said, "Syria was defeated, and everything went according to the plan." In a sense, we expected this outcome when planning the whole operation of the thugs. To safeguard the interests of the Republic, we must make the most of the consequences of Syria's defeat, which is to turn bad things into good things

Li Cunxun smiled and waited for Pei Chengyi to continue. The tear book bar dumps the concave factory and tells less, Xia Chop, Xia more

"The first thing to do is to create an atmosphere, how can I say it?" Pei Chengyi thought for a while and said, "To put it bluntly, it is to make the countries in the Middle East think that with the defeat of Syria, the United States will once again dominate the Middle East." To achieve this, in addition to good propaganda, it is best to be able to stage a military coup in Syria. Because the United States is not necessarily willing to overthrow the Syrian regime, this military coup will not succeed, it will only fail.

To put it bluntly, if the coup is successful, it will be too blatant and will make the surrounding countries think that we are doing this. Only a failed coup d'Γ©tat can convince the surrounding countries that it was deliberately carried out by the US authorities in order to confuse the public. More importantly, if it is properly arranged, and the line is indexed to the United States, it can also strengthen our relationship with Syria

Li Cunxun smiled and shook his head. seems to have hit the nail on the head by Pei Chengyi.

"It's come to this. The situation in the Middle East will become more complicated Pei Chengyi touched his chin and said. "From the standpoint of the Arab countries, we must consider the serious consequences of US hegemony in the Middle East, that is, whether it will benefit them to set the tide by a few years. Undoubtedly, the answer to this question is no, and no Arab country wants to go back a few years because we are competing with the United States to the benefit of all Arab countries. To put it bluntly, even Israel is reluctant to go back a few years because of our presence. It also brings benefits to Israel. All in all. The countries of the Middle East do not want to upset our strategic balance with the United States, and they will adjust to the defeat in Syria. In fact, this is also the fundamental reason why the United States is reluctant to let Israel fight too hard. The more Syria loses, the more obvious the intentions of other Arab countries will turn to us, and the less benefit the United States will get. What the United States has to do is just to teach Syria to be honest for a while with a punishment that does not hurt the bones and bones. What's more. Only to convince the Arab countries. The United States does not have the ambition to dominate the Middle East in order to ensure its interests. This is a zero-sum game, and if we want to get it, we have to make the United States pay. To this end, the second thing to do is to take this opportunity to win over the countries of the Middle East, including Israel, and of course the focus must be on the Arab countries themselves

"These are things that have already been born."

Pei Chengyi nodded and said, "What the Military Intelligence Bureau has to do is very simple, and there are three main points to sum up. One is to make the Syrian authorities more dependent on us through a military coup; There are two main means to achieve this. The former is to let the Syrian authorities know that we are incapable of changing the Syrian dynasty, and the latter is to make the Syrian authorities think that the United States wants to overthrow the Syrian government. Either way, the key is to get there. The second is to carry out active actions in other Middle Eastern countries, by providing information of interest to Arab countries, for example, Egypt is very interested in the performance of the Syrian army in the "four-hour conflict", establishing intelligence contacts with these countries, and influencing the basic decisions of these countries through the exchange of information. In the end, it is to make a fuss about the Mossad. Through the Mossard, the Israeli authorities were convinced that we had never supported Syria's military action to regain the Golan Heights, and that we had not taken any substantive action, and that the Syrian-Israeli conflict was a war planned by the United States to dominate the Middle East. As long as we do these three things well, even if we cannot drive the United States out of the Middle East in the short term, we can still gain influence comparable to that of the United States in the Middle East

"This kind of two-pronged approach will certainly not last long."

"Indeed, sooner or later we will have to choose between Arab-Israel. In any case, the Arab-Israeli contradiction between the thugs is an existential contradiction between the two nations, and until an effective solution is found, neither the United States nor China will be able to fundamentally eliminate the Arab-Israeli contradiction, and it will be impossible to untie the dead knot in the Middle East. Pei Chengyi smiled. suddenly thought of something and said, "Lao Li, you told me so much, wouldn't it be just for this?" ”

"Why not?" Round reading the most chopped chapters, choose the tear book, throw the concave Peng complete

Pei Chengyi immediately tightened his brows, knowing that he had already touched on the core topic at the beginning.

"Your analysis is not wrong, except for some discrepancies in details, we did this Li Cunxun sighed. "The problem is the same as what I said at the beginning, and the same as your analysis. We can't find a way to let the two nations release their previous suspicions and give two catties. Until the approach of equal survival and national rights for all nationalities is achieved, our strategy of currying favor with both sides in the Middle East cannot last long, and sooner or later we will have to choose between Arabs and Israelis. In fact, the Israeli authorities' reluctance to completely surrender to the United States has a lot to do with this

Pei Chengyi nodded slightly. This is easy to understand.

The Jews are the wisest people in the world! First, the fact that the Jews were able to survive and multiply for thousands of years and maintain their national identity for thousands of years while adrift in a foreign land is a testament to the wisdom and fortitude of the Jews. Since its founding, Israel has maintained relatively friendly relations with the Republic, with the exception of the fact that the Republic, as a permanent member of the Security Council, has given tremendous assistance to the establishment of the State of Israel. It has a lot to do with the Jewish judgment of the future, that is, the conviction of the Israeli authorities that the republic will not sit idly forever and will sooner or later become a world-class power, or even the only world power. Influenced by this realization, Israel's foreign policy is very pragmatic. In the aftermath of the Syrian-Israeli war, just when the whole world saw that Israel had no reason to reject the open embrace of the United States, the Israeli prime minister visited Beijing and then Washington. This move is a manifestation of Israel's position. That is, Israel will not pursue a unilateral policy.

"You have been in the physics experiment center for the past few years, and you are not clear about the situation in the outside world, Li Cunxun smiled and said, "After the end of the Syrian-Israeli war, the situation in the Middle East was indeed hot for a while, but with the Syrian authorities thwarting the military coup d'Γ©tat, hundreds of soldiers and officials involved in the coup were sent to the gallows, and the situation in the Middle East quickly cooled down. As you have analyzed, the Syrian-Israeli war has not weakened our influence in the Middle East, but has given us a greater voice. Don't say anything else. Over the past few years, our arms sales in the Middle East have increased by more than 20 percent every year, and even the Kingdom of Jordan, which has never purchased arms from us before, has become a guest of honor among our arms dealers. Just before I came to you. I just arranged a job for Liu Xiaobin. Let him personally take charge of the security of the Saudi crown prince. If done well, this tycoon, who got rich by selling fertilizers, will leave an arms order with a total value of not less than 100 billion yuan before leaving. ”

Pei Chengyi was stunned for a moment, and then couldn't help laughing.

A few years ago, the Saudi royal family, which started by selling oil, was definitely the richest "family" in the world. At that time, almost no one said clearly how many assets the Saudi royal family had. It was not until after the Western Years that oil was no longer the most important strategic resource that the Republic began to popularize the production of controllable fusion nuclear power plants, and the United States and the European Union also accelerated the development and promotion of new energy. As a result, the price of oil has plummeted all the way below the cost line, and the wealth of the Saudi royal family has gradually been exposed. According to the data released by a Western news media, from Pinian to four "drunken", in order to maintain a luxurious life, the Saudi royal family sold a total of part of the flying thugs. In fact, the wealth of the royal family is mainly in the sovereign wealth of Saudi Arabia, according to the most conservative estimates, in the year of Shu, the sovereign fund of the Saudi royal family managed about 3 trillion US dollars of wealth, nearly half of which was the private property of the Saudi royal family.

The problem is that no matter how big the family property is, it can't withstand the endless squandering.

At this time, the current Saudi crown prince, that is, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, stepped forward. Since the beginning of the year, the Saudi crown prince has shifted his focus from managing sovereign wealth funds to developing industries, and his first deal was to build the largest fertilizer production base in the Middle East. There is no doubt that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, with its population of less than 10,000 and few oases in its territory, could not have been founded on agriculture. There is no need to have the largest fertilizer production base in the Middle East. The Saudi crown prince has only one purpose, and that is to make full use of Saudi Arabia's oil resources. Although the world's cars no longer rely on gasoline, and most airplanes no longer burn butterfly oil, oil is still the most important chemical raw material, and fertilizer is the most produced chemical product. More importantly, with the rapid rise of the Republic, the living conditions of more than one billion people have improved rapidly, and the demand for food has surged, resulting in an increase in international food prices every year, which in turn has led to an increase in fertilizer prices every year. The Saudi crown prince's entry into the fertilizer industry at this time has undoubtedly found the right way forward.

By 20 years, Saudi Arabia had become the world's largest producer and exporter of fertilizers. Although during this period, under the rule of the crown prince. Saudi Arabia has also established a chemical industry that uses petroleum as raw materials, including composite materials, artificial rubber, medical pharmaceuticals, etc., but because he was the first to engage in chemical fertilizers, and is the world's largest fertilizer manufacturer, he has won a pound. The nickname of the "Prince of Fertilizers". Round reading the most chopped chapters, choose the tear book, throw the concave Peng complete

"It's nothing funny, being able to solve the problem of the survival of more than 20 million people, and make the whole country thrive, such a crown prince deserves anyone's respect

Pei Chengyi is not laughing at the crown prince to produce fertilizer, but laughing at Li Cunxun's words.

Li Cunxun also realized this, so he quickly changed the topic and said, "No matter what. The outcome of the Syrian-Israeli war is certainly a great disappointment for the US authorities. In fact, over the years. The U.S. authorities have done nothing less to block us. Born two years ago in Venezuela in a military coup. Although it was thwarted by the Venezuelan authorities, the impact was very far-reaching, and the most immediate consequence was that the Venezuelan president had to rely on fraud to obtain a fifth re-election. What's more, it's not 30 years ago, and the nearly 100-year-old president of Venezuela won't live for a few days. As you can imagine, it won't be long after. The South American region will be in turmoil, and the United States will take the opportunity to get rid of a few disobedient neighbors. Of course, South America is 108,000 miles away from the Middle East, and the upheaval over there has no impact on this side. I would say that the United States is moving aggressively. ”

Pei Chengyi frowned slightly, and heard the meaning of Li Cunxun's words.

Of course, in a sense, the U.S. action is incomplete, and the U.S. smiled faintly, saying that "the thugs are at a loss because they recommend the U.S. to take the book, so that the Iranian authorities have to reform the most critical issue, that is, the country's basic political system."

"What do you mean?" Pei Chengyi immediately asked, this is not a trivial matter.

"Iran has always adhered to a theocratic political system, with the supreme leader not an elected president, but an almost hereditary supreme spiritual leader. There is no doubt that such a political system is difficult to accept from the outside world. In fact, it is the Iranian political system that has led the Iranian authorities to adopt extreme policies on certain issues of great importance to us, such as covert support for separatist and extremist religious organizations in our country. It can be said that this is what makes us have to give up Iran. The fundamental reason for choosing to cooperate with countries such as Syria, Egypt, etc. One could even say. It is also Iran notorious. The root cause of Russia, which is hungry, has to stay away. To know. Extremist groups in Russia also have more or less clandestine contacts with Iran

"Iran intends to carry out political reforms?.

"There is such a tendency, but the domestic struggle is fierce, and it is not clear now." Li Cunxun smiled and said, "As you know, our political reforms are going extremely hard, let alone Iran. According to the information we have, the main contradiction lies between the president and the spiritual leader. One wants to seize power, and the other does not intend to delegate power. In the past, there would have been no such problem. The situation now is. The coup d'Γ©tat in Venezuela by the United States shows that the US authorities have murderous intentions and are ready to take action against countries that have not been obedient for a long time. There is no doubt that Iran is the target of the strike. Because of the political system, Iran has not given a clear answer on the issue of foreign covert activities, and it is impossible for us to answer the question of Iran's joining the intensive group, resulting in Iran being isolated at any time, so the Iranian army, which has always firmly supported the spiritual leader, began to hesitate, or there was a split. Knowledgeable and thoughtful young officers became staunch supporters of the president. ”

"Have you ever thought of the worst?

"What result?" Li Cunxun asked knowingly.

Pei Chengyi hesitated for a moment and said: "If the situation gets out of control, there is a high probability that a civil war will break out in Iran." ”

Li Cunxun smiled faintly and said, "Actually." Iran is one step away from civil war. ”

"What!?" Pei Chengyi almost jumped. The tearful book bar has fewer concave factories, and there are many bad salaries

"But the situation is under our control, and that's not the most important thing."

Pei Chengyi took a long breath and decided to wait for Li Cunxun to finish his words before expressing his opinion.

"Yesterday, the Iranian authorities foiled an assassination attempt against the Supreme Spiritual Leader, and although Iran has not released any information about it, according to what we have, it is very likely that the assassin was a young military officer who followed the president. Fortunately, Iran's supreme spiritual leader and president are true patriots, and both want Iran to be rich and strong, but there are serious differences in ways and means. That is, as long as there is no external intervention, the situation in Iran will not get out of control. Li Cunxun paused slightly and said. As the situation stands, it is impossible for the United States to be unaware of the domestic situation in Iran, and it is impossible to give up the great opportunity to promote American-style democracy. ”

"The problem is that the U.S. can't get past the people at home."

"You're right, but the United States doesn't necessarily take it personally." Round reading the most chopped chapters, choose the tear book, throw the concave Peng complete

Pei Chengyi frowned, knowing that Li Cunxun still had a lot of things that had not been revealed.

"In fact, more than 20 years ago, the American authorities chose the wrong way. The best way to deal with a country like Iran is not to attack with troops. Rather, it takes advantage of its internal contradictions. ”

"You are,"

"It is undeniable that the Persians are very brave and warlike, and they have been preached by the Iranian government for so many years. It has become extremely national honor. What's more. More than 20 years ago, they made the world's most powerful country taste the bitter and were more confident in their own strength than ever before. Li Cunxun smiled. "In this case, let alone the United States sending troops, even if we send troops jointly with the United States, we may not be able to occupy Iran, at most change the Iranian regime." More importantly, whether it is us or the United States, as long as we take direct action, the losses will not be small. ”

Pei Chengyi nodded, expressing his agreement with Li Cunxun's point of view.

"The United States has suffered a loss, and we are watching from the sidelines, so we will certainly not make the same mistake."

Li Cunxun prompted for a long time, and Pei Chengyi suddenly reacted and said, "Are you talking about the Kurds?" ”

"It seems that my reminder still works." Li Cunxun smiled and said, "In addition to the Kurds, there are also Azerbaijanis. ”

Pei Chengyi was taken aback and said, "You mean, in addition to the United States, there are."

"Of course, the key is the United States." Li Cunxun pointed to the document in front of Pei Chengyi and said, "As long as the Kurdish issue is involved, it is not only the Iranian issue, but also the Iraqi issue."

That is, as long as the American that Kurds make a fuss. can achieve the goal of killing two birds with one stone. However, it is not only Iran and Iraq that are involved in this issue, but also Turkey. ”

Hearing Li Cunxun say this, Pei Chengyi picked up the document.

There is no doubt that Pei Chengyi will definitely not be able to reunite with his family at dinner.