Chapter 34: Ulterior Motives
Liu Xiaobin reminded. When facing Li Cunxun, Pei Chengyi was very calm
probably expected that Liu Xiaobin would tell Pei Chengyi what he knew, Li Cunxun only briefly introduced the basic situation, and then took out a list of generals, and Pei Chengyi selected the second deputy from it.
It's definitely not an easy thing to do.
Seeing the names at the top, Pei Chengyi knew that his choice must have something to do with the struggle within the army and even the domestic struggle with the republic.
Li Cunxun didn't let Pei Chengyi make a decision immediately, giving him enough time to think.
Purely from the perspective of military needs, Pei Chengyi will definitely choose a general who has cooperated with him and will willingly obey the command. What's more, because the general will go to Iran or Syria. Perform the duties of a front-line commander in place of Pei Chengyi. It is necessary to cooperate face-to-face with the generals of allied countries, so it is necessary to have a certain political quality, at least to know how to deal with foreign-related incidents.
As a result, "fierce generals" like Ling Yunxiao will be out of the game in advance.
Among the remaining options, Pei Chengyi must weigh the pros and cons. To be exact. It's a trade-off.
The generals who were able to gain a place in the leadership of the republic had distinguished themselves. Xiang Linghui became famous through the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War and the East China Sea War, Lin Xiaolei made great contributions in the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War, the East China Sea War, the Peninsula War, the Japanese War and the Indian War, not to mention Pei Chengyi, even Yuan Chenhao, who was still a lieutenant general, showed his might in the Indian War. What's more. Lin Xiaolei worked in the General Staff at most for the old years, and when the four were replaced, whether Lin Xiaolei wanted to or not, he had to retire due to age restrictions. Although according to Wang Yuanqing's vision, Lin Xiaolei should be the chief of the general staff of the Air Force in the future, and it is very likely that he will be the current commander of the Air Force, but no one can say whether this catty can be adhered to to four rules. And with the deepening of the third military reform. The powers of the chief of the general staff will definitely be weakened, and if Gu Weimin has any ideas, such as wanting to take this opportunity to strengthen the Ministry of National Defense, the chief of the general staff should be abolished and a joint staff body should be established.
In fact, regardless of whether Gu Weimin wants to or not, as long as Lin Xiaolei believes that it is impossible for him to continue to serve as the chief of the general staff after 2 years, and it is impossible to arrange for a naval general to serve as the chief of the general staff, in order to continue to exert influence, or to ensure that the great naval plan he has spent his whole life and hard work can be completed, it is very likely to use the third military revolution, that is, to remove the chief of the general staff, and if the goal cannot be achieved, he will also try to weaken the power of the chief of the general staff. Then use the naval officers he arranged to the General Staff during his tenure as Chief of the General Staff to control the overall situation.
In addition to Lin Xiaolei's willingness to be in charge, Pei Chengyi's factors must also be considered. Everyone knows that if the rules are broken, Pei Chengyi is undoubtedly the best candidate for the chief of the General Staff. By the time of the four, Pei Chengyi was only at the age of witches, and he was in the most glorious period of senior generals. With his ability, it is certainly not a problem to work in the position of Chief of the General Staff. The problem is that Pei Chengyi's military achievements are brilliant enough. Even becoming the chief of the General Staff is only the icing on the cake, and it will certainly not be very attractive to him. In other words, it was only a matter of time before Pei Chengyi took off his military uniform. In this way, Pei Chengyi will most likely not work against Lin Xiaolei on the issue of weakening the power of the chief of the general staff, and in order to obtain the capital to enter the political arena, he may even support Lin Xiaolei.
It can be seen from this. The struggle within the republican ** is no longer a question of who is the chief of the General Staff.
See the list before. Pei Chengyi knew that if it was from the actual situation, there would be no need to arrange a second deputy at all. Even Syria and Iran want to be able to cooperate with a real general of the republic. Instead of handing over the national defense force to a general who had never been on the battlefield, Pei Chengyi and Yuan Chenhao came forward. are enough to solve the problem. In any case, the Iranian and Syrian authorities know who Yuan Chenhao is and what he has done.
Obviously, this is unlikely to be Li Cunxun's arrangement.
Of course, Pei Chengyi also has to consider another possibility. That is, Li Cunxun does not want him to sink too deep in this war.
As mentioned earlier. Pei Chengyi's military achievements are brilliant enough. Even if it is another victory. Nor does it necessarily lead him to greater honor. What's more, the Middle East is not South Asia. Even if the authorities of the Republic have made up their minds to fight in the Middle East, even if it is possible to meet the United States, it does not mean that the war will be won, and the possibility of losing will not be small.
In a sense, the Republic and the United States are not only competing for the Middle East. Also warming up for the battle in the back.
From this point of view, it does not matter whether the war in the Middle East is won or lost. That is, if necessary, the authorities of the republic are quite likely to abandon the Middle East.
Director of Military Intelligence. Li Cunxun must have understood Gu Weimin's thoughts.
Thinking of this, Pei Chengyi couldn't help but gasp.
Although from the very beginning, he felt that it was the best policy to fight the United States for the Middle East region through a head-on confrontation, no matter what. The republic is not ready to take over the global influence of the United States, nor is it ready for a full-scale war, even if the United States is not ready, it should not take risks for the sake of a region, but before that, Pei Chengyi has always believed that there are already countermeasures for the United States to take the initiative to withdraw from the Middle East, and it will be approached step by step. Let the United States have to fight. Or maybe it's the other way around, that is, the United States has stopped. The country took the initiative to ink out the countermeasures in the Middle East, so that it and the country had to be especially... The head-on confrontation between the great powers pays the bill.
Obviously, Pei Chengyi's previous judgment was problematic.
Although no one denies that as long as the republic does not give up its march toward the goal of becoming the world's number one power and the only number one power, and the United States does not intend to willingly give up its hegemony and become a century-leading Russia, and become a regional power, then war between the republic and the United States will be inevitable. There are even many people who believe that the Republic and the United States authorities are actively promoting comprehensive nuclear disarmament because they do not want a war between the two major powers to destroy the whole world and open the door to World War III. But one thing must be admitted, and that is that neither the United States nor the Republic will provoke their opponents until they are ready for a world war. In fact, since the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War, especially the global financial straits triggered by the East China Sea War, and the subsequent global Great Depression, the Republic and the United States have been preparing for World War III.
Preparations for war are not as simple as mobilizing the people and producing weapons, but must start with the most basic things, that is, small things that have a bearing on the country's overall strength. Take World War II, for example, Germany as the birthplace of Europe. In fact, long before the Nazis came to power, the Weimar government prepared for war by reviving national industry, restoring the domestic market, and building infrastructure. On the other side of the Atlantic, Franklin Roosevelt, after coming to power three years after the thug came to power, in the name of dealing with the Great Depression, went all out to promote Keynesianism, building national infrastructure by expanding the fiscal deficit, restoring industrial production, and actually preparing for war. After World War II, many economists and historians believed that it was not Roosevelt who saved the United States, but Hitler and Hideki Tojo, because Keynesianism could not solve the fundamental social problems that led to the Great Depression. In other words, it was World War II that helped the United States get out of the Great Depression. As one of America's greatest presidents, Roosevelt could not have been unaware that the Great Depression would lead to world war. It is impossible to be unprepared, and it will definitely be actively preparing for war.
In fact, even at the beginning of the century, only war could solve the problems caused by the Great Depression.
If there were no wars in Iran, on the Peninsula, in Japan, and in India, would it be possible to consume enough of the industrial products that had been hoarded in the warehouses of the Republic and the United States enough for all mankind to use for many years? If the surplus materials are not consumed, the factory will not be able to get new orders. If they can't operate normally, they will go bankrupt and go out of business, leading to workers' careers, and the people will be more unable to buy industrial products that are already in serious surplus, leading to more factories going bankrupt, forming a serious vicious circle, and eventually leading to the collapse of society. It is war. And it was a large-scale war that brought the world economy out of crisis.
The problem is that the Great Depression that erupted in Litting did not lead to a world war.
Although the four major regional wars consumed more than twice as much material as World War II, the total amount of reconstruction spending after the four wars was far greater than that of the Marshall Plan after World War II, enough to deplete the world's surplus supplies, otherwise the global economy would not have been able to turn around quickly after the war in India. But compared to the world war. The most important characteristic of regional wars is that they cannot change the world pattern, and therefore they cannot have a fundamental impact on the industrial systems of the two major powers. In fact, that's the root of the problem.
In the final analysis, material surplus is caused by uneven distribution. If social distribution were absolutely equitable, there would be no surplus.
The problem is that no person, no government, or even society can solve the problem of unfair distribution, let alone absolute fairness. As a result, there will always be a surplus. For different countries, the difference is only when the surplus occurs. The greatest impact of the Great Depression on society was not the impact on the lives of the vast majority of people. Rather, it is for the government and society to learn from it. The Great Depression is in full swing. Years after the last global Great Depression, there is a lot to do with the experience and efforts of the Western world during the Great Depression. Importantly, many of these lessons were taught by the Second World War.
In other words, because there was no world war, many of the fundamental problems of the Great Depression were not resolved.
If nothing else, the industrial structure of the Republic and the United States has not been changed by the four large-scale regional wars, and the same enterprises still control the economic lifeblood of the two world powers, and the resulting social inequality cannot be fundamentally solved.
To put it bluntly, the Great Depression is not over, it is just lurking.
It is precisely in this way that the Republic and the American authorities have every reason to believe that the next Great Depression will not come after the year of the sword, but will most likely resurface after the year of the sword, or the year of the blade. There is no doubt that during this period, both the republic and the United States were capable of solving peripheral problems. Because it is difficult for a major country to be directly involved. Therefore, the possibility of a large-scale regional war breaking out is greatly reduced. Even if a large-scale regional war breaks out in some hot spots, because no major powers are directly involved in it, the effect will not be much better. As a result, world war is inevitable as social problems erupt again.
Under such circumstances, both the US authorities and the CCP have to consider a very important question, that is, whether they can prepare for a world war in the same place.
In the past. Pei Chengyi didn't think about this problem. And he must now think about it.
As a matter of fact, the contents of the London Treaty have already given the most direct and clear explanation of the judgment of the authorities of the Republic and the United States on the future situation: it will be carried out in three stages, and the final operation for the complete elimination of nuclear weapons will be completed by the end of the month.
This is the answer given by the republics with the American authorities.
Because the "London Treaty" itself is regarded as the most hegemonic and the only global strategic treaty jointly promoted by the two major powers, the treaty itself is a signal from the two major powers to other countries, no matter what, before the end. Both tiers of great powers will be ready for all-out war.
Counting from the beginning of the prison year, in the end, it is almost a knife year.
Other words. It will probably take a blade year for the two tiers of powers to prepare for a world war.
The question now is, will the social contradictions that were enough to change the situation in the world and make the world war come early will explode later?
If the answer is no, then it is very likely that the Republic and the United States will find ways to delay the explosion of social contradictions.
Thinking of this, Pei Chengyi knew it in his heart.
Obviously, it was not Landers who planned the war in the Middle East, but Blandino, who is considered by many to be the most economically savvy and the most knowledgeable economic manager in the United States since World War II. And when Blandino was in power, he faced Wang Yuanqing. Other words. The war planner on the republic's side is not Gu Weimin. Pei Chengyi even has reason to believe that Wang Yuanqing asked him to join the "Yanhuang Project thug" in Tian Nian. "I just hope that he can serve as the supreme commander during the Middle East war and work miracles again.
Looking back at Wang Yuanqing's historical row, Pei Chengyi also understood a little. That is, Gu Weimin must have participated in the planning work.
If nothing else, the first term of office is almost over. Gu Weimin still hasn't done much, and he hasn't even made much contribution to political reform. Suffice it to show that he is waiting for his moment. In other words, Gu Weimin knew that Wang Yuanqing had planned the Middle East war before he left office, and no one could stop the war from breaking out, so it was normal to slow down the pace of domestic reform in order to avoid the impact of the war. In fact, Zhao Rundong was in the same situation back then, and he took the same approach. From another point of view, Gu Weimin also hopes to establish his prestige through this, so as to get rid of Wang Yuanqing's influence and make a difference in the second term. It is precisely because of this that Gu Weimin is not very concerned about the situation in the Middle East, and he does not even inquire in detail about things related to the war, and hands over the power to Li Cunxun.
Anyway, Pei Chengyi must believe it. Where he is now. In fact, it has been arranged a long time ago.
Thinking about this problem, Pei Chengyi appeared. Li Cunxun gave him a problem.
As mentioned earlier, there are too many generals who want to take advantage of the war. In a sense, whether or not they can participate, and whether they can make a difference in this war, will be related to the fate of almost all republicans. It's obvious. Gu Weimin intends to establish his prestige during the second term of office, and arrange a successor according to his own wishes. After leaving office, he continued to influence the exhibition of the republic. In order to achieve this goal, Gu Weimin not only had to win Lin Xiaolei's support, but also had to support his own people in the army and let them gain enough prestige. Easiest. The most direct way is to let them participate in the Middle East war and benefit from it.
Thinking of this, Pei Chengyi noticed a name behind the famous grass: Su Jinhui.
As the former commander of the concave army, Su Jinhui's ability is beyond doubt. In fact, if it weren't for the physical relationship, or if it wasn't for Wang Yuanqing forming an alliance with the Shaozhuang faction. It is entirely possible for Su Jinhui to achieve greater achievements, and even become Pei Chengyi's biggest competitor in the army. After the Peninsula War, Su Jinhui was promoted to army general at the same time, but also had to leave the concave army, first served as the chief of the operations department of the General Staff, and then was transferred to the Ministry of National Defense.
His appearance at this time is obviously not simple.
Don't think about it, this must be Gu Weimin's arrangement.
Because the Shaozhuang faction has long formed an alliance with Wang Yuanqing, even if it is Lin Xiaolei, it is impossible to betray this alliance, and during Wang Yuanqing's administration, the Shaozhuang faction has controlled the entire army, so if Gu Weimin wants to replace Wang Yuanqing in the minds of the republican people, the first thing to do is to cultivate a senior general outside the Shaozhuang faction, who is talented enough, and does not climb up completely by background and nepotism, and let this senior general obtain enough brilliant military exploits.
No doubt. Su Jinhui is the best choice. In fact, Su Jinhui already has enough brilliant achievements.
More importantly, the family faction standing behind Su Jinhui also needs a chance, a chance to defeat the Shaozhuang faction and regain control of the army. Even if Su Jinhui didn't want to get involved in the internal struggle, and he hadn't intervened in the internal struggle before, it was impossible for him to stay out of it.
Thinking about this truth, Pei Chengyi looked at Li Cunxun.
Obviously, he can't make the decision on this issue, and he must seek Li Cunxun's opinion.