The list was determined after careful consideration," Li Cunxun seemed to know what Pei Qiushu would ask, "Although we are trying to avoid war by all means, judging from the previous situation, war is inevitable, and it is very likely that it will start within a few months." [Full text reading]"

"I know this, just

"So we have to think at the military level."

When Li Cunxun said this, Pei Chengyi didn't quite understand. As a commander. It is certainly necessary to think at the military level, not from the political level. Li Cunxun deliberately mentioned this point, making it clear that military affairs are not the main problem, but just an excuse.

"Let's put it this way," Li Cunxun paused slightly, and said, "You also know that we have received accurate information, and the commander of the other party is Du Qiwei, whom you know very well, and of course, he knows you very well. If you partner with Yuan Chenhao, following the example of the Indian War, there will be no secret to Du Qiwei's tactics. ”

Obviously, Li Cunxun's reason failed to convince Pei Chengyi.

The tactics themselves are flexible. Good tactics are unlikely to remain the same. What's more, a good commander will never stick to the old ways. Looking at the several wars and conflicts commanded by Pei Chengyi, it is not difficult to see that his tactics are very flexible and rarely use the same tactics.

In other words, the reasons put forward by Li Cunxun are not valid.

"Of course, the key is still the issue of command." Li Cunxun is also a soldier, so he naturally knows that the reasons he put forward at the beginning cannot satisfy Pei Chengyi. "Although there will be no problem for you and Yuan Chenhao to each command one direction, this war involves several countries, and this command method itself is problematic. More importantly, we are not facing Turkey and Israel, but the United States. ”

"That is, there is a good chance that we will lose the war?" Pei Chengyi asked at this time.

Li Cunxun frowned slightly. "On a strategic level, we have to think about defeat before we think about winning," he said. In particular, the weight consequences of failure, but "

"Lao Li, you also said that this is a very important war." Pei Chengyi sighed and said, "So no matter what." I need a clear answer. ”

Li Cunxun nodded, pondered for a while, and said, "You're right, we do have the possibility of losing the war. ”

Pei Chengyi was not surprised. Instead, he waited for Li Cunxun to continue.

"You can ask this question. Show that you are thinking about the problem, and that you are thinking very deeply. Li Cunxun smiled and shook his head. "If my judgment is not wrong, you must think that we were preparing for this war several years ago, and we asked you to go to the Physics Experiment Center for this war in the first place. ”

"It's not just us preparing."

"That's true, and the United States is also preparing." Li Cunxun nodded and said, "Since you took the initiative to mention it, I will explain it in detail, after all, we have to work hard to win the final victory."

Pei Chengyi had already prepared his mind and had no intention of leaving in a hurry.

"Before the end of the war in India, to be precise, when you were moving south, we instigated against several American advisers operating in India."

Pei Chengyi frowned slightly, not surprised, plotting against enemy country personnel was originally the military intelligence bureau's forte.

"Soon after, it should be at the beginning of the Dao Mi, I don't remember the exact time." Li Cunxun paused and said, "We have received definite information that the White House has reached a secret agreement with several of the largest interest groups in the United States, and as a ticket to enter the decision-making circles of the interest groups, Brandino will plan one war during his re-term and prepare for another." Because our military advisers didn't penetrate the core of the Pentagon, we didn't get more detailed information. ”

"So, the Falklands conflict is also related to the United States?"

"Brandino, to be exact." Li Cunxun smiled slightly and said, "Think about it, what is the direct cause of the conflict on Yinma Island?" Without the results of the exploration announced by Standard Oil, the Argentine authorities would not have risked war even if we wanted to change the strategic situation in the South Atlantic. It has now been confirmed that there are far more rare metal deposits on the Falklands than Standard Company has now, but not as much as estimated. To put it bluntly, if you can get accurate information before the war breaks out. Maybe none of us will get involved in the Falklands conflict. ”

Pei Chengyi nodded, indicating that he understood what Li Cunxun meant.

In fact, the immediate cause of the conflict in Inmak was the exploration results published by Standard Corporation, in particular the prospective reserves of rare metal deposits. Although the MIA managed to obtain accurate exploration data, that the number of rare metal deposits on the island was far less than expected, before the outbreak of the war, the Republic had no choice but to support Argentina. In this way, the Falklands War became inevitable.

"Before the Falklands War ended, we felt that what the U.S. authorities were doing was a bit unreasonable." Li Cunxun took a sip of tea and said, "One of the most suspicious places is to send Dudgway to London to command the British army in battle as the top military adviser to the British minister." Although the relationship between the United States and Britain is extraordinary, in our view, the United States can abandon any of its allies, and it is impossible to abandon Britain, but one thing must be acknowledged. i.e. Duchway did not get any benefit from it. Herein lies the problem, during Branchway's two terms, Duchway served as defense secretary and national security adviser, and was considered the most influential figure in the cabinet. There is no doubt that Dudgway was indeed reused, but his trust paid a bitter fruit. As it turned out, sending Dudgway to London was the arrangement that Bran had made in order to shirk his responsibility. That is, long before the war ended, Blandino knew that Britain would lose the war and that the United States had to be held accountable. If there is no Dudgway, it is up to him to take responsibility. ”

"Dudgway must know what Brandino wants."

"Yes, but that was after the war. Do you think about it, if Dudgway had seen through Branchno's arrangement before the war was over, would he have behaved so aggressively? Judging by the situation in the later stages of the war, of course. It is quite possible that Duchway had the problem before the end of the war, but he did not have time to act. In fact, it doesn't matter whether Du Qiwei saw through Bran's arrangement or not. Li Cunxun paused slightly and pulled the topic back, "Blandino's shirking of responsibility is not to save his reputation, and for a president who is destined to leave the White House, reputation is not important." According to my judgment, he is arranging this way to prove something to the interest groups in the United States. Here's the point, what does Brandino want to prove? To be honest, we didn't know at the time. ”

Pei Chengyi frowned, waiting for Li Cunxun to continue.

"It wasn't until the year of Lili, when the Republican Party won the presidential election without any suspense, that I figured it out. In fact, also until this time. I fully believed the information that Bran was reluctant to retire from American politics. Li Cunxun let out a sigh and said, "Before we can figure out Blandino's intentions, we must understand the problem, that is, there is no partisan conflict between interest groups in the United States." Although in the eyes of the outside world, the Republican Party and the Democratic Party represent different interest groups, for example, the Republican Party is the throat of arms dealers and energy companies, while the Democratic Party is the throat of the middle class such as doctors, teachers, and blue-collar workers. But there is no clear line between these interest groups, such as the American unions, which represent the middle class, also represent arms dealers and energy companies to a large extent, because these large companies employ the most people. ”

Pei Chengyi didn't speak, because what Li Cunxun said was the truth.

"Got it. It is not difficult to understand the intentions of Branchono. Li Cunxun smiled and said, "Think about it." As a "former president," Blandino leaves the White House, and unless his wife or children are willing to contribute to politics, it will be difficult for him to get involved in politics. In fact, the vast majority of U.S. presidents have become civilians after leaving the White House, and at most they rely on giving speeches, publishing books, or other means to maintain their popularity, but it is difficult to find a place at the decision-making level, but some cabinet members and White House staff can get the opportunity to spend their spare time. Don't say anything else. During the administration of George W. Bush, Rice, who served as national security adviser and then secretary of state, stayed in the US decision-making circle for a long time, and even had reason to believe that she was involved in the US involvement in the Iran war. ”

In other words, in order to join Davis, Blandino had to speak for his abilities

"It's not ability, in fact, no one doubts Bran's ability." Li Cunxun smiled and said, "In a sense. Aside from his not-so-good luck, Blandino is not much worse than the great presidents in American history. You know, he came to office during the Great Depression, and he didn't solve America's social problems through world wars, and he didn't spend too much national energy on international struggles. Although in the eyes of the outside world, the recovery of the US economy is not ideal, and in many respects it does not even reach the national average, but the main reason for the slow recovery of the US economy is too much investment in scientific research. In fact, this laid the foundation for the long-term development of the US economy. According to a recent estimate we made, the U.S. economy will have an explosive growth in about 10,000 years. Even if the war in the Middle East breaks out this year, the US economy will have an explosive growth in a few years, probably between a good year and a field year. The fundamental driving force of this growth has nothing to do with the outside world, but comes from the long-term development strategy of the Brandino period.

Pei Chengyi nodded, agreeing with Li Cunxun's statement.

In fact, almost no one in the news media, or the general public, doubts Bran's talent. In the words of some U.S. news outlets, if he had not been legally constrained to seek a third term, Mr. Brande would have been able to defeat Mr. Landers in the general election.

"As I understand it, what Brand's commitment is to prove is only his own political position, to be precise, his understanding of American politics."

"What do you mean?" Pei Chengyi frowned, looking a little confused.

"As I said earlier, American politics is not multipartisan politics, and the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are on the same footing." Li Cunxun smiled slightly and said, "The problem is that the politics of the two parties have been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and many presidents in the United States can only be regarded as puppets of interest groups, at least among the presidents we have contacted, from Japell to Roddick, to Frederick, Westwood and Blandino, and even now Landers, they are actually puppets in the hands of interest groups, puppets, the difference is only whether they are completely controlled by interest groups." Undoubtedly, Branbeno's relationship with interest groups was most distant during his time in power. When he needs to return to the American decision-making circle through interest groups, he must prove to interest groups that he is not only talented, but also courageous. In fact, among the hundreds of millions of people, there must be politicians who have such a heart, such as the current US Secretary of State, Mrs. Loblin, and Dudgway, who has been fighting independently. So Blandino has to convince interest groups that he can serve them

Pei Chengyi smiled bitterly and understood what Li Cunxun meant.

"Back to the previous topic." Li Cunxun took a sip of tea and said, "After the Falklands War, we were wondering why the US authorities would admit defeat. Judging from the negotiations after the ceasefire, although the United States has been secretly supporting Britain, which has had a great impact on the negotiations, resulting in the Falklands issue still unresolved, and a third war will break out sooner or later, one thing is certain, that is, the United States does not want Britain to immediately counterattack. Nor will it provide military support to the British, otherwise the negotiations would have broken down long ago. That is, the original intention of the United States was to restore calm to the South Atlantic. There is no doubt that it is unthinkable for a class of great powers to have no enemies, and it is also inconceivable for a zone without hot spots. When the temperature in the South Atlantic cools, the United States will have to find a way. ”

"Will the United States create a despicable place somewhere else?"

Li Cunxun nodded and said, "That's right, at that time, we were worried that the United States would create a conflict elsewhere. ”

"The question is. We didn't start preparing at this time, did we? ”

Li Cunxun smiled. "It's exactly as you say." As the head of the military intelligence agency, I have to make judgments based on intelligence and do not speculate on the situation based on subjective will. In fact, long before that, Yuan recognized the problem and believed that the South Atlantic was only a secondary region, and the Middle East was the real hot spot. In a sense, it was this judgment of Yuan that led us to the Falklands conflict. ”

Pei Chengyi was stunned for a moment, as if he hadn't figured it out.

"If there is no Falklands conflict, there is a high probability that the war in the Middle East will break out in the concave year."

"How could it be. Blandino"

"It doesn't seem possible now, but at the time, it seemed likely." Li Cunxun sighed. Said. "The key is not whether the war in the Middle East will break out in the year of the blade, but whether we can prepare for the war in the Middle East before it breaks out. As it turned out, Yuan's judgment was not wrong. If it weren't for the Falklands conflict, which consumed the national strength of the United States, weakened its influence, and forced the US authorities to exert great efforts to restore their prestige, the war in the Middle East would have broken out before today. In fact, if the war in the Middle East breaks out before then, our losses will be incalculable. Do you think about how much effort the US authorities have spent in the Middle East in order to increase the prestige of the United States? ”

Pei Chengyi nodded and said, "The problem is that the war can only be delayed, not avoided

"If we could have avoided it, we wouldn't have prepared so much for war." Li Cunxun smiled and said, "That's why we can't lose the Falklands conflict." The United States must be inflicted a heavy blow in the Falklands War. We were very fortunate that we did. And it's better than you think. It was in this way that Brandino had to leave the heavy lifting to Landers. Of course, it is quite possible that Blandino deliberately left this conundrum to the Republican president. So that one day in the future, the Democratic Party can win the general election again, and he, as a veteran of the Democratic Party, coupled with his close relations with interest groups, is likely to become the shadow president of the United States. ”

"In any case, war is inevitable from now on."

"Theoretically. Sooner or later, a war in the Middle East will break out, and it is only a matter of time. Li Cunxun smiled and said. Although both we and the United States are well prepared, neither wants to lose this vital war. But one thing is clear, and that is that neither we nor the United States want a Middle East war to turn into a world war. In fact, much of the war preparations we have made with the United States over the years have been related to avoiding escalation. ”

"You mean. War must be kept within what we can bear. ”

"Exactly. So we have to be mentally prepared for failure. ”

Pei Chengyi frowned slightly, and Li Cunxun's words confirmed his guess.

"What's more," Li Cunxun glanced at the list in front of Pei Chengyi and said, "If we can win, it will be great." If it turns out to be the opposite, having to sign an armistice that did not win, then I hope that this is not a complete armistice and that you should not be the one who signed it. ”

Pei Chengyi was startled and looked at Li Cunxun.

"There are many ways to win, not just defeating the enemy. There are also many ways to fail, not just to the enemy. Li Cunxun let out a long sigh and said, "In the final analysis, the war in the Middle East is a war with a limited purpose, and there are many ways to end it, so there is no need to stick to the form. So be prepared to do it with multiple hands. More importantly, I don't want you to pay too much in this war. You must know that the war in the Middle East is not the end, but a necessary step towards a new era, and this is not the last war you will experience. ”

"I understand." Pei Chengyi nodded, controlling his somewhat excited emotions.

"Think about it and give me the answer tomorrow." Li Cunxun knocked on the table, got up and said, "I'll ask Xiao Liu to send you out, if you have anything, you can call me." ”

Pei Chengyi didn't say much, and immediately got up to say goodbye.