Tao Shouhe has a strong Tao Chengzhang temperament, it is estimated that Tao Chengzhang's reputation makes him think about the peasants all the time, but this is completely wrong in Yang Rui's opinion. Not to mention that agriculture is not the whole of the country's economy, and even the country's economy is not everything in Greater China -- this can be seen from the setting of the powers of the subordinate departments of the Prime Minister's Office, and the Ministry of Rites and the Ministry of Land are the most important, which does not mean that it is better to carry out the decrees of the Ministry of Rites and the Ministry of Land than to develop the economy, but to carry out the decrees of the two ministries rather than to die.

The livelihoods of hundreds of millions of farmers are of course more important than whether the Yellow River is cut off. The north is only nourished by the Yellow River, and the north that loses the Yellow River will eventually become the Gobi like Gansu, and such a price cannot be offset by agricultural development and economic development.

However, the officials don't see it that way, they will be transferred after a few years and retired in a few decades, of course, it is important to exchange their political achievements for their future first, and then the Yellow River will be cut off and the north will become Gobi, what does it have to do with him? People have already immigrated to New Zealand, and the environment, the ecology, and the northern boundary will not come again in the next life.

With such an attitude, Yang Rui did not answer Tao Shouhe's question, but continued: "With the current agricultural cost, can the farmers live by cutting the price in half?" ”

Tao Shouhe's visit required him to provide detailed agricultural data and then judge the dangers and opportunities of agriculture in the world economic crisis, but his populist plot clearly made him seem twisted in the completion of this task. Hearing Yang Rui's question, Tao Shouhe said: "Uncle, the livelihood of farmers will definitely be greatly affected. In recent years, the price of agricultural harvest has continued to rise. The people invested a lot of the money they had earned in new farming tools, and once the price plummeted. They will lose all their money......"

"Lizhong, just tell me. Will people starve to death? Yang Rui spoke calmly and interrupted his words.

"Hungry to death? No one will starve to death. Tao Shouhe thought for a while. Can ......"

"Lizhong, an economic crisis is bound to happen, and it is inevitable no matter how we pull it. Besides, our economy is less than one-fifth of that of the United States, and even if we want to, we can't pull it up. So......" Yang Rui took a sip of tea, "agriculture will definitely be hit hard, and the sericulture industry like what Xingjian said just now is almost a devastating blow." I used to advise the people not to raise silkworms, but they did not listen; Said to cut down mulberry trees to give subsidies. They don't cut. Not only that, but they also accused Tianhua Company of producing rayon and asked Tianhua Company to stop production, what kind of logic is this?

Since the peasants do not starve to death, there is nothing to worry about. The land lease bill has been passed before, and I think that this time there will be many farmers who rent out their land, and they will collect a land rent in the future. ”

The price of agricultural products has been cut in half, and the planting industry such as mulberry sericulture has been devastated, in accordance with the land lease bill passed by the previous Inspectorate. The result will be a perpetual lease that has been seen in the Shanghai Public Concession. Or is it Yang Rui's kindness, or for some kind of echo, the provisions on the lease term of land lease are: 70 years for residential land, 40 years for commercial land, 30 years for agricultural land, 50 years for grassland, and 70 years for forest land. However, unlike later generations, when the ownership of property rights was vague and they never dared to clarify the problem after the expiration of the term, the Land Lease Act clarified the issue of renewal of the lease upon expiration

-- That is, the value of the land is determined at the average current price at the time the lease contract is signed. This assumption is the company's share capital. After the expiration of the lease, if the leaser wants to continue the lease and the lease price between the two parties cannot be negotiated, the landlord will automatically become a shareholder. If there is no other negotiation, it will receive dividends in proportion to the investment (land price). This ensures the continuity of the lessor's operations. At the same time, it also enabled the landless peasants to finally have a profit, so that they would not have nothing.

Yang Rui believes that this method is better than the rural land contract law of later generations. But Tao Shouhe, who stood on the peasant's standpoint, was very worried about this, and he said: "Uncle, in this way, those bankrupt peasants are likely to become tenants again. ”

"Tenants can't help it." Yang Rui disagreed, "Not to mention that they themselves are landlords and can have a land rent, there is nothing to say about whether they are willing to gamble and lose." I think that according to the current situation of peasant households, the peasants who want to rent and pawn acres of land this time should be peasant households who grow cash crops, and the peasant households who grow grain will have a tighter life, and the land can be saved. Since they want to make more money, they should know that the market is risky, and they must be cautious when entering.

Okay, Lizhong, wheat, cotton, corn, and soybeans are the bulk of exports, just talk about it, if the price is really cut in half, what are the advantages of exports, and can they beat the Americans? After Yang Rui finished speaking, he saw that his face was full of sorrow, so he had to add, "Don't mention the livelihood of farmers or anything." If you really feel cruel, think of the Russian peasants who fled and did not want to go back after the Soviet Union set up collective farms. There must be a price for the development of the country, in Soviet Russia it was a collective farm, in us it was an economic crisis. ”

"Yes, uncle." Tao Shouhe wanted to help the peasants complain again, but as soon as Yang Rui mentioned the Russian peasants who fled the border, he had no idea at all -- according to the newspapers, the Russian peasants who fled tried all means not to return to Russia, and the most bizarre thing was that Russian women, young and old, all liked to seduce Chinese men, and they could become Chinese citizens after becoming wives or concubines, and never returned to Russia.

It can be said that this is the second time that Chinese people have married foreign women on a large scale after the revival army went to Europe to participate in the war, and this temptation of opening foreign meat has made the Outer Northeast and Beiting a dream place for all the old and young masters: there are countless foreign women, endless golden sands, and more bandit and tyrant local officials, rangers with guns, and drunk wine ......, anyway, as long as it is what the master loves, it can be found in Beiting and Outer Northeast.

But this was a man's pride, and any sensible person knew that the flight of the Russian peasants was not the result of famine, but of the compulsory introduction of collective farms. Stalin's collective farms were not carried out smoothly because of the long tradition of village communes in the Russian countryside, and when it was determined that they had to join the collective farms, the timid kulaks killed their cattle and sold their seeds and farm implements in passive revolt, and the bold ones rebelled with arms.

After these events were frequently exposed in the domestic newspapers, the intelligentsia of the whole country almost talked about the Russian color change - if what happened in the film Kronstadt could barely be washed away by the expediency of revolutionary matters, then the collective farm policy stunned the people who had experienced the land reform and counterinsurgency. They originally thought that the land reform was a stain on the Revival Society, and they didn't want the Russobu Party to violate the world. A little compensation will be confiscated directly, and even people in North Korea will be like North Korea -- people still know how to detain a hat of a Japanese traitor.

The blacker crow appears gray and snow-white. Yang Rui said that the Soviet Russian collective farm made Tao Shouhe shut up the livelihood of the peasants, he took out a notebook and raised his throat and said: "The output of wheat last year was more than 24 million tons, of which 2.3 million tons were used for export, and the average export price was 70 yuan per ton on the east coast and 72 yuan per ton in the north garden, which was 10 yuan lower than that of American wheat; The cotton output was more than 6.9 million bales, and the export was 3.7 million bales, with the average export price of each bale being 170 Chinese yuan on the east coast and 172 Chinese yuan on the north side. In the same period, the export price of U.S. cotton was 200 Chinese yuan per bag;

The total output of soybeans was 5.94 million tons, which was used for export of 4.4 million tons, and the average export price was 65 Chinese yuan per ton. The total output of corn was 21 million tons, and the export was 1.9 million tons, with an average export price of 60 million yuan per ton; Raw silk exports are 100,000 quintals, with an average export price of 2,100 yuan per quintal......"

Among the exports of agricultural products, wheat, cotton, soybeans, corn, and raw silk were the major export items, with export values of 160 million, 630 million, 280 million, 110 million, and 210 million respectively. Among them, raw silk exports are concentrated in the United States. Once the United States is finished, Sannon will definitely not be able to keep it, and this is no longer a question of halving the price, but of halving.

"Wheat ......," Yang Rui calculated. After listening to the price reported by Tao Shouhe, he felt that the price of grain was much higher now than in previous years, and remembered that wheat used to be forty or fifty yuan per ton. "Wheat is three and a half per city. Cotton is three cents and nine per catty, and corn is three pieces. Three soybeans, two cents and five, and twenty-one pieces of raw silk per catty....... Neutrality. There is really no way to make raw silk, so I can only notify the Sannong ......, and it is not a way to notify the Sannong to reduce the yield, and the mulberry tree is not cut down. If the other is cut in half, each piece of wheat is seven cents and five, cotton is one cent and nineteens, corn is five, and soybeans are six. At this price, except that cotton is too low, the farmers' harvest may not be too bad. ”

"Uncle, this is just the export price. Like soybeans, if it is a foreign company, the foreign bank will account for one percent of six, which includes customs declaration fees, profits, etc.; If it is a cooperative, then there is basically no cost except for the money spent by the cooperative itself. In addition, the freight is also a big head, the railway is a piece of two per ton of 100 kilometers, the waterway is cheap, as long as the triangular money, but not all places can be connected to the river, the freight generally has to remove three percent, and then subtract the packaging fee, decoration fee, and finally to the farmer is only about five to six percent. The situation of wheat is very similar, but because of the high unit price, the freight ratio is generally 20%, and the proportion of freight is less than 10% because of the high unit price of cotton.

"Fifty percent, the soybean is eight cents per quintal, based on the current average yield of one hundred and eighty catties per mu, that is, four cents and two cents per piece; Wheat ......" Yang Rui turned out the notes he had made in the Northeast at this time, looked at the data on it, and said with a smile: "This seems to be going back again, the increase in production partially offsets the price difference, and the yield per mu was only 100 catties in the past, if the purchasing power of Huayuan and Yangyuan is opposite." ”

Tao Shouhe didn't want Yang Rui to look at the problem like this, so he was immediately stunned. I only heard Yang Rui say again: "Now that the 8% agricultural tax has been abolished, tenants don't have to pay more than 30% of the rent, and once the economic crisis occurs, the price of industrial products will also plummet, so it is not as good as it was a few years ago for tenants." Tenant farmers are worry-free, and yeoman farmers are in a better situation, but these people are full of money, and they are afraid that they will have to save more. ”

"Uncle, can't you think of a way to do this?" Unlike Yang Rui's optimism, Tao Shouhe is sad.

"What can I do?" Yang Rui looked at Tao Shouhe obliquely, the experience of a fruit seller made him understand very well that business cannot be done to death, unless the buyer and seller ask for both the goods and the money, so signing a contract with a foreigner in advance to set the price is completely invalid. The only useful thing is to seize the opportunity to grab the channel, like someone else shipping in advance, because the further you go, the lower the price. The agricultural product business under the economic crisis is like going to the supermarket and waiting for a long time after Qingming, and then laughing with the buyer to talk about an apple promotion - at this time, the fruit stored at room temperature will be finished if it does not come out.

"What we can do now is to reduce the yield, but except for the soybeans that can really be reduced, I think everything else is difficult." Yang Rui said with some pride, the Northeast is already his nest at this time, and the entire Northeast is an organized system, and as soon as it is said that the production will be reduced, the production will be reduced immediately, without ambiguity. "Cotton and wheat are grown in every family. Raw silk is available in all provinces, but the government issued a document to reduce production. Will it really be done underneath?

The feasible way is for the agricultural trading companies and the large cooperatives to maintain close contact with the Commercial Intelligence Bureau and the Shanghai futures market, if they can harvest before the stock market crashes. Then hurry up and ship it by train. Like cotton, eggs, tea, tung oil, peanut oil, soybean oil, pig bristles, all such goods that can afford money, do not ship by sea, go directly to the Persian Western Regions Railway, the sooner they are sold, the better. As for wheat, soybeans, corn, etc., it is left to fate. ”

Thinking about the scene of throwing goods, Yang Rui shook his head slightly, "There are also oil mills and hydrogenated oil factories across the country. It has to be rotated 24 hours a day, after all, oil can be quickly transported by rail, and soybeans can only be shipped by sea; Finally, ...... is a not very good way, first of all, close contact with the meteorological department, find a way to plant as soon as possible; Then it is to control the water and fertilizer, so as not to grow too long, and finally spray ethephon on a large area under the guidance of agricultural technicians, so that a set of things can be done. Grain can be marketed about a month in advance......"

"Can this be done?" Tao Shouhe was very moved, he thought of many ways, including a way to set prices in advance with foreign merchants, but he never thought of a way from the crop growth period.

"Technically, it's completely possible." Yang Rui nodded. This was his previous experience of going to Binchuan, Dali to harvest oranges -- as far as the whole of China is concerned. Except for the lack of green oranges in Hainan due to the lack of temperature difference between day and night, Yunnan citrus is the earliest. In Dali, 50,000 catties were collected, and the packaging factory was faded green and waxed. Wrap with copy paper, English label English box - 'Topsweet'. As soon as I arrived in Xinfadi, Beijing, it became an imported South African orange, earning tens of thousands of dollars a car; Or take advantage of the Mid-Autumn Festival on the National Day to go to Jiangxi. Gannan area is not allowed to pick to go to the next door Wan'an, pounding a car in the local fade green, and then pull to the Jiaxing packaging factory wax packaging, English label English box - 'Sunkist', as soon as you arrive at the Caoyang Road market in Shanghai, it becomes an imported Sunkist orange, the same tens of thousands.

This is true for fruits, and the same is true for agricultural products, which are expensive at one end and one at a time, and they are made early rather than late. In the first year of the economic crisis, if China's agricultural products could be marketed a month earlier than those of the United States and Canada, even if there were futures trading, the price would be higher than that of the United States, which was listed later. As for the ...... of the second year of the economic crisis, grain cotton is not a fruit, and it is no problem to put it for one year, so the second year is still blind!

Thinking of this, Yang Rui, who missed his career as a fruit seller very much, shook his head and said: "But this can only be done in the first year, and in the second year, the whole world is unsalable agricultural products, so everyone will leave it to fate."

Lizhong, the economic crisis is not a bad thing. Canada, the United States, Argentina, Australia, the Balkans, India, and us are the only ones who sell food all over the world; Russia's economy has not yet recovered, and its share is very small, and it even has to import grain......"

Yang Rui thought about these major grain exporters, and suddenly felt that Argentina was too conspicuous. He kind of understands why Argentina can't get better in the future, and it's obviously because someone did it. With her, American grain and British colonial grain and beef will not be sold at all, and the market will be vacated without her -- he accounts for 20 percent of the world's wheat exports, and animal husbandry also accounts for a huge proportion.

"......, the economic crisis is actually a round of reshuffle, we do not seek to expand sales of wheat, only to increase the export volume of cotton. If you calculate for yourself, 3.7 million bales of cotton will sell 630 million, and if 74 million bales are exported, won't it be 1.26 billion? The others don't add up to as much. Yang Rui thought about the prospect of cotton spinning, and felt that it was indeed a weapon for labor and gold.

"Then the loss of the United States will be great, and India will not agree." Tao Shouhe thought about the world cotton trade and felt that it would be difficult to achieve.

"Agree or not, what is our cost?" Yang Rui asked.

"We ......" Tao Shouhe opened his book again and said: "The Western Regions, Beiting, Henan, Shandong, and Zhili are the major cotton-producing provinces, especially the Beiting of the Western Regions. Over there, an acre of land yields more than 40 catties of lint, and the cotton quality is good, and more than four and 5 yuan can be harvested per acre, which is twice as high as the income from growing grain. However, the freight cost of grain in the customs area is 30 per ton, and if the price of grain does not fall, there will be very few people who grow cotton. ”

"And what about the cost?" Yang Rui understands the choice of farmers, farming is to make money, if they grow grain to make money, they will immediately grow grain.

"It's almost the same as growing wheat, but with more labor." Tao Shouhe said, "Compared with growing wheat, the man-hours of planting cotton are fifty or sixty times that of growing wheat." If you plant less, the farmers can do it themselves, but if you plant more, it will be very uneconomical to hire workers. In terms of wheat and cotton, the man-hours spent on a load of wheat are 3.9 in the United States and Canada, and 66.7 in ours; The number of hours of labor per bale of cotton is two hundred and sixty-eight in the United States, and it is one thousand four hundred and twenty in ours. [note 136]

In terms of working hours, a family of five with four laborers can only grow more than five acres of cotton. In this way, if you no longer hire workers, you can't grow other crops, so the average farmer only grows one or two acres of cotton, and then plants some wheat and corn. If you want to increase cotton production without losing efficiency, you still have to find a way to do it manually or mechanically. ”

"Did you write it down?" Yang Rui looked at Lu Mei and said happily.

"Hmm." Knowing that men are most interested in numbers, especially in the comparative data of agriculture between China and the United States, Lu Mei has already written it down.

"Lizhong, what data do you have in that book, copy it to me later, I want to use it. Only with this data can some ideas be effective. Yang Rui said with relief. Since growing cotton is time-consuming and laborious, we use small agricultural machinery. Americans' farms are bigger than the other, and our family is only more than 20 acres, which cannot be compared at all. However, through this economic crisis, those who have the ability to lease other people's land, and then connect it into hundreds of acres, so that the machinery can be used. This is the same as agricultural cooperatives, where small families voluntarily come together and pool money to buy machinery, and hired workers save money, similar to the collective farms in Soviet Russia. ”

I didn't think that Yang Rui would compare this to a collective farm, Tao Shouhe said: "Uncle, this is the same as a collective farm... Can it be the same? ”

"It was basically the same, with the only difference: the collective farms were raised by Comrade Stalin's hens, and none of the eggs laid by these hens were used by him to buy machines for the electrification of the Soviets. The Bolsheviks regarded the whole world as an enemy, and naturally they had to be on guard everywhere in case the enemy counterattacked. Without electrification, airplanes, artillery and combat vehicles cannot be built, and the regime cannot be stabilized. I can still be idle when I step down, but Stalin's people will die without a place to be buried. Yang Rui said about the electrification of the Bolsheviks, with some sighs.

"Okay, Lizhong, you go out first, and I'll talk to Xingjian for a while. Go back and give me a copy of your data. Yang Rui said, "I have the data within the government, but I'm worried that those people are fake." ”

"It's uncle." Listening to Yang Rui's instructions, Tao Shouhe stood up and walked out, leaving only Zhang Kun in the living room.

When Lu Mei's record sheet turned the page, Zhang Kun said: "Sir, you should ...... during the economic crisis in the domestic stock market."

As soon as Zhang Kun opened his mouth, it was a big deal, Yang Rui lit a cigarette and took a puff before saying, "It's been three years, and the stocks in the hands of the landlords should be able to be listed and traded, right?" ”

"There have been people who want to put stocks on the exchange for trading in defiance of the law, but they have been blocked by Mr. Yu." Zhang Kun said.

"Well, they just can't wait." Yang Rui smiled. State-owned companies were compensated to landlords for their shares, but it was stipulated that they could only be listed after three years. This was calculated - the major banks under Tianzi and the National Bank would take advantage of the world economic crisis and the market downturn to eat the shares of those people, and then completely control the state-owned companies through a series of complex equity transactions, and by this time, from finance to industry, the Fuxing Society would regain most of its power.

"I can't wait." Zhang Kun, who said this, had to glance at Yang Rui -- it was Yang Rui who said that there was a world economic crisis when he left his post, and with Yang Rui's prestige, everyone immediately panicked after saying this.

"Don't worry, the economic crisis has been going on for several years, and there are opportunities." Yang Rui said with a smile. "Don't remember to eat too ugly, and be more modest in your mouth, so as not to be hated."

"Students understand." Zhang Kun hurriedly nodded.

"But for those disobedient ......," Yang Rui thought of the lake businessmen represented by Zhang Jingjiang, "Don't be too merciful, everyone should be harmonious, that's right, but it's not good for some people to be too arrogant." (To be continued.) )