Since the beginning of the Fuxing Revolution, Ningbo businessmen have intervened, and the benefits are the greatest, and the lake businessmen also want to support individuals, but Sun Wen does not give up. In addition to Ningbo businessmen, overseas Chinese businessmen also contributed a lot to the revolution, they officially integrated into the revival system when Yang Rui and Cheng Ying got married in Hawaii, and the establishment of the Overseas Chinese Commercial Bank is a significant sign, but these overseas Chinese businessmen also have political interests in addition to economic interests - the demand of overseas Chinese in the Americas is to emigrate, and the overseas Chinese in Nanyang are to establish a country or establish a Nanyang Autonomous Region, both of which Yang Rui cannot agree.

There are major differences between the existing international system and the post-World War II international system, which is equivalent to the old king stepping down and the new king coming to power. As a rookie and a heterogeneous pagan religion, China's best choice is to maintain the existing international system, cooperate with Britain to contain the United States, which wants to come to power, and at the same time keep its own light and not touch the colonial interests of old Europe.

In Yang Rui's plan, the future world is a world in which Britain is the co-lord of the world, and at this time, the weakened Britain not only does not have the strength to expand, but will retreat strategically, and in the Asia-Pacific, what she gives up is what China gets. Yang Rui believes that the British, who pay attention to practical interests, will one day let themselves get involved in the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean, and then sit back and watch China and the United States play each other, just like watching France and Germany fight each other in Europe, and in this kind of 'balance', Britain will never let either side of China and the United States sit big, just as he will not let either side of France and Germany sit big."

In all fairness, Yang Rui thinks too highly of himself. The root cause of Britain's decision to abandon the containment of the United States and focus on Germany was that Europe was too close to him, and the Americas were too far away from him, and the Imperial German Navy almost had to put its guns on the English coast; As for China and the United States, the United States, which is of the same language and has a long distance, enjoys the same preferential treatment. China, on the other hand, is a land power country. This is enough to threaten India, and secondly, there are many overseas Chinese. Without containment, Nanyang will eventually become a vassal state of China, and the island's lazy and scattered natives will not be able to compete with the clannish, often fratricidal Chinese diaspora.

Although the government of the Renaissance Society expressed no interest in India and Nanyang, Yang Rui of Tibet did not agree with its independence, and Tibet followed the practice of the former Qing Dynasty and stationed a brigade of troops; On the Nanyang side, there were overseas representatives of the Inspectorate among the overseas Chinese, and the Renaissance Society tried its best to stop the infighting among overseas Chinese, and later even passed the clan law and established the state religion. It is clear that the law should be used to restrain clan conflicts and support clans to expand overseas. This practice will obviously accelerate the 'yellowing' of the South Seas, and because of the promises made during the European war, the status of the Chinese and the white people in the South Seas is almost equal, and it is difficult for them to stop this trend by normal and legal means, so they can only return to normal through war, through wars in which they do not participate and can still take advantage of the opportunity to make a fortune.

But after all, the world is not only France, Germany, China and the United States, the four big countries, Soviet Russia is also a terrible new force, if the Chinese and the white race are fighting only in Asia. The Bolsheviks and the bourgeoisie fought over the whole of the Western world. From this point of view, the destruction of Soviet Russia was worse than the blow to China and Japan, as the frequent strikes, demonstrations, and riots initiated by trade unions and Bolsheviks throughout Europe and the United States, which put the lives and property of the gentlemen at risk. Therefore. If China could change its usual pro-Russian stance and turn hostile to Bolshevik Russia, then the war to destroy Soviet Russia would precede the Pacific War. If the pro-Russian continues, then the order of the war will be reversed. The Pacific War preceded the Russian War.

In Westminster's discussion of the world situation, the course of history is so certain. The main force of the Pacific War was the United States. And the main force of the Soviet-Russian war was the major eastern and western powers bordering Soviet Russia, and Britain only had to acquiesce to it. As for Yang Rui's initiative to make overtures and demand that they jointly contain World War II, this could not fundamentally shake Westminster's determination.

Yang Rui knows a different history, not Westminster's determination, and he is now thinking about how to make China suffer the least in the world economy. As far as the industry is concerned, raw silk, soybeans, cotton spinning, and grain (food) will be the hardest hit places, and the industry will be the least hit because the country is at a high tide because of the construction of the country. Only the sales of household appliances, such as refrigerators, air conditioners, toasters, electric irons, vacuum cleaners, and washing machines, will decline sharply - nearly 500,000 of the 600,000 refrigerators exported to the United States every year.

Therefore, the problem arises, since the development of Zhongguangguan, there have been 24 years of industrial construction, after these 24 years, the number of factories in the country has reached 840,000, and the total number of workers has approached 10 million, if you include the road construction, dredging and other iron foundation projects on the migrant workers, it must be more than 10 million. It is conservatively estimated that the economic crisis will cause 200 to 3 million workers to be unemployed or semi-unemployed.

Although according to the lifetime employment system, the factory will not lay off employees, but only rotate - assuming that the factory only needs half of the workers, the workers will be arranged to work for half a year (or a year), half a year (or a year) of rest, and the insurance money accumulated before will be paid during the rest until the economy improves or the factory eventually goes bankrupt, but it is obvious that the home appliance industry will not rotate, and the factory will go bankrupt in a crisis for several years, especially those small individual factories with no foundation, and the shareholders will definitely file for bankruptcy to keep more property, even if the workers can share 50% of the total share capital according to the shares. Although they come from the countryside, the land in their hometown obviously does not need them to plant, and if they are not arranged, there will definitely be chaos, but how to arrange it?

"Sir, the over-issuance of currency to expand the construction of infrastructure projects, this practice will definitely be opposed by others." For unemployed workers, Zhang Kun understood Yang Rui's previous considerations, in the final analysis, that the iron public base would drive employment. In the past, he might have hesitated to take such a position, but now the ass is different, and there is a certain antagonism between the propertied and the propertuary.

"Over-issuance is equivalent to the depreciation of the Chinese dollar in disguise, which is equivalent to injecting water into all the property in the country, the gentry and people with families and jobs occupy the majority, and the over-issuance of the Chinese yuan will cause more serious expansion of Tonghua, now because a large amount of money is invested in construction every year, the inflation rate has exceeded six percent, and it is really necessary to eliminate unemployment by expanding the construction of infrastructure projects, and the inflation level will further increase by several percentage points. At that time, some people who can instinctively maintain food and clothing will also be unsustainable at this time.

And most of the unemployed workers are graduates of technical schools in previous years. Although they have a family, the burden on the family is not heavy. In addition, everyone has the habit of saving, and the money that has been accumulated in the past can be maintained for a long time. A few years later, the economy improved. The foreign trade factory has finally transformed, and they can still find a good job with their skills and education, but it is only temporarily difficult......"

When it comes to solving the problems of unemployed workers, Zhang Kun has said a lot of things in a row, for fear that Yang Rui will go to the Iron Gongji - there are many steel, cement, construction, and transportation companies under Tianzihao, and there are few light industries. It doesn't matter from a professional point of view. From the point of view of the new national bank, he must oppose the implementation of such a strategy, because it is extremely detrimental to the propertied people and to the recovery of the domestic economy, and the essence of the over-issuance of money is robbery!

Glancing at his student meaningfully, Yang Rui turned to ask, "Then what do you think should be done?" ”

"It's better to follow the laws of the economy. There is no chance that the industry and agriculture that depend on the American economy will be saved, and unless the American economy recovers, there is little hope for it without war. His economy will be cut in half to $50 billion, after which he will withdraw from the center of the world economic stage. Other export industries must shift their focus to the domestic market as much as the automotive industry. Soviet Russia, which is implementing a five-year plan, is obviously a good stepping stone, helping it to build factories will stimulate domestic industry, but the ultimate hope still falls on the domestic market......"

"Xingjian, but the people are still poor!" Yang Rui blinked. Not optimistic about the domestic market. "If we are given another 10 years, it is possible for the industry to switch from export to domestic sales, but it is still too early."

"Sir. Even if we are given another 10 years, the scale of the export industry is not something that the domestic market can support. Because at that time, the scale of exports would be several times that of now. Zhang Kun said, "In addition, don't be too pessimistic now. Industrial technology is constantly being upgraded, and products will become cheaper and cheaper, and automobiles are the most obvious example. ”

"And then all the people of the country drove the Shifeng tricycle for a ride?" Yang Rui said with a smile, and his mood was a lot better.

"Sir, according to the report of Taiyuan Second Automobile, if it is a gasoline engine, then the agricultural tricycle can be reduced to 9.1 yuan per horsepower, that is, each tricycle is only 72.8 yuan. [Note 138] Zhang Kun said, "Compared with the previous 120 Chinese yuan, this is already an ultra-low price. ”

"Seventy-two eight?" Yang Rui was still not satisfied with this, and said, "When will it be reduced to less than fifty yuan?" ”

"It is estimated that it will take a few years, and this will have to wait for the coal, steel, machine tool industry to find a way to improve efficiency, the automobile is only the downstream industry of these industries, coal prices, steel prices are not reduced, machine tool processing efficiency is not improved, even if a good model can be designed, can not reduce production costs."

Zhang Kun's words are in point, the automobile industry is a downstream industry like cotton spinning, cotton does not reduce the price, no matter how efficient the textile mill is, the price of cotton cloth is still high. Energy, smelting, and processing are the foundation of all industrial economies. If the cost of these three does not go down, the cost of the entire industrial product will not be reduced. At present, the large industrial zones of Shanxi and Liaodong in China are still developing rapidly thanks to low energy prices, especially in the northeast, Fushun open-pit coal mines because of the low mining costs, and now they are actually sold back to Japan, squeezing some small coal mines other than Mitsui into bankruptcy.

"Xingjian, it's okay if we don't over-issue currency, but tell me how much money these two projects can raise." Yang Rui no longer bothered with the over-issuance of currency, and took out two prepared plans and asked.

As he spoke, Lu Mei helped hand over two documents, and Zhang Kun saw that there were two plans written on the cover of the document's vellum paper, one of which was written on the Sea of Three Rivers, and the other was the Eurasian Canal. It is estimated that he is more interested in the latter, Yang Rui drew up the plan with the Eurasian Canal, and said: "This is a plan formulated by the Department of Water Resources of the Ministry of Lands, because the canal is no longer on our territory, so we can only take the method of aircraft survey and combined with written materials, but fortunately, there is no technical difficulty in this canal, although there is no detailed construction plan, but the plan is to dig a canal of about 1,000 kilometers between the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea, so that the North Court is connected to the Mediterranean Sea through the Black Sea......

Of course, the plan that Yang Rui took out was a big plan, but with the word 'Mediterranean', Zhang Kun was frozen. The Western Regions-Persian Railway, which can connect the Persian Railway, will make the Chinese people ecstatic, if this 'Western Regions-Mediterranean Canal' is thrown out, then ......

"Sir. How much does it cost? Zhang Kun interrupted excitedly, and. He pointed to the map on the first page of the document, "The canal is completely built on Russian soil. Do they want us to dig a canal? ”

He was excited, but Yang Rui seemed calm, and he said: "The cost of building the canal has a lot to do with how to negotiate with the Russians. The canal passes through plains, the geological conditions are good, and there is a river itself, and there is no need for locks, so the total cost under normal circumstances will not exceed 200 million Chinese yuan[Note 139], and even if some engineering and technical problems are encountered, it will not exceed 250 million yuan.

However, there is a height difference of about 26 meters between the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea, after the canal is dug up. The Black Sea will flood into the Caspian Sea, and the Caspian Sea will rise in sea level, and our oil fields, oil refineries, grasslands, and arable land near the sea will be submerged a lot, and according to calculations, more than 20% of the land along the coast will be submerged into the sea. Of course, this is the result of the Caspian Sea being level with the Black Sea, and some people in the Department of Water Resources believe that this may not be the result, and the land loss will not be so severe. Anyway. The amount of money to be compensated for the direct loss of inundation is likely to exceed 20 million Chinese dollars.

These two costs are removed, and what remains is the asking price on the Soviet side of Russia. When the Treaty of Petersburg was signed, it was intended that the canal would be an exchange for the Trans-Siberian Railway, not the Mongolian Canal. But I think freshwater resources are more important than connecting to the Mediterranean. In addition to the value of water, the point is that the Mongolian canal can nourish the entire north, which is the Han land. And although this canal connects our land, it is Hudi.

The negotiation plan on our side is that we will build the canal. The money comes from us, Japan, and Persia, and the workers are also our workers. Russia can just get out of the land. After the canal was built, everyone could use it, but in addition to the cost of maintaining the canal, Russia no longer charged other tolls for passing ships. If Russia really wants tolls, it will be paid in a lump sum upfront. Whether there is this money or not, and how much, it is still uncertain. In Russia's current situation, if an economic crisis occurs, their industrial plans will definitely be interrupted, and at this time, the price of agricultural products will be devastating, and even if the starving people collect food, they will not be able to get much foreign exchange. From this point of view, the toll will probably cost at least 100 million Chinese dollars, and 300 million Chinese dollars at most. [note 140]"

Originally, when he heard 250 million and 20 million, Zhang Kun's expression was relatively normal, but in the end, the lion opened his mouth and asked for 300 million, and he was immediately frightened, which is equivalent to the canal will cost 600 million Chinese yuan, and Persia will not be able to produce any money at all, and Japan will not be able to contribute much money because it does not rely on the Caspian Sea. After Yang Rui finished speaking, he said cautiously: "Sir, will Russia really offer such a sky-high price?" ”

"I think it will." Yang Rui nodded, "It's a good thing that he will make an offer, but what I'm most worried about is that he won't talk about it." Think about how much money was spent on building the Western Regions Railway, as long as the investment in the canal does not exceed too much for the Western Regions Railway, the people can still accept it from the bottom of their hearts. ”

Yang Rui attached great importance to the canal, but Zhang Kun said: "Sir, you have to invest so much money, even if you raise funds in the stock markets of China and Japan at the same time, you may not be able to raise so much money!" Especially the part given to Russia, is this an aid, or is it a sale? ”

"Aid and buying and selling are the same thing. The canal is already a matter at the national level, and if it were not for the hostility of the countries of the world against Russia, if it were not for Russia's rapid industrialization and the fact that it coincided with the world economic crisis, I am afraid that we would not have given this opportunity. "Yang Rui thought that if World War II happened, in exchange for Sino-Japanese aid, Stalin would definitely sign the canal agreement without hesitation, and at that time there would be no chance for him to open his mouth, but this is not what he wants to see." The reason why the Western Regions Railway had to be repaired regardless of the cost was that without the Western Regions Railway, there would be no Beiting. ”

"Sir, sir," Yang Rui's last sentence said very loudly, which made Zhang Kun a little flustered, and he said anxiously: "If the Russians' asking price can be less than 100 million Chinese yuan, and the total investment of the project is equivalent to more than 400 million Chinese yuan of the Western Regions Railway, then it can be packaged as the Panama Canal in Asia, in the form of collecting tolls for passing merchant ships,—— the Russians are of course free, with an annual interest rate of 40 percent, a period of 50 years, and a toll of 20 million Chinese yuan per year." The first 20 years must be a loss, but after 20 years, it must be a profit. However, this requires the stability of diplomatic relations between China and Russia,"

Speaking of this, Zhang Kun peeked at Yang Rui, in his opinion, the cost of this project is too expensive, more than 300 million Chinese yuan is not to be talked about at all, and there is also a war factor - Beiting was originally snatched from Russia, and the Russians are likely to retaliate in the future if they are resentful. Building the canal on Russian soil is far less secure than the United States beguiling Panama to become independent from Colombia, and it is said that the United States is not an order of magnitude in terms of national and military strength compared with Colombia.

"I know that the stability of diplomatic relations is also a major factor affecting the economic benefits of the canal." Yang Rui understands all of Zhang Kun's concerns, "Although there have been territorial disputes between China and Russia, this is only a border issue, not a core interest issue. The Russians will always look at Europe, which is the fundamental reason why they will eventually be slaughtered by European diplomats no matter what time and what kind of state they are. This is also a bit like what we have now, but we don't get much benefit from aiding Russia.

Apart from the security of the Trans-Siberian Railway and Vladivostok, Russia had no further interests in the Far East; As for the southward movement, it was blocked by the British as early as 50 years ago, and Central Asia was only his cotton producing area, so the two countries were by no means enemies of life and death. On the contrary, because of the hostility of Europe and the United States, we are the only ones who can only be half-convinced, and it is safe to say that in 50 years, or even 100 years, even if there is a conflict between the two sides, it will only be a minor conflict, and there will never be any evil between them.

At the time of the stock raising, the canal was actually equivalent to the Trans-Siberian Railway, which was our gateway to the West, just as Russia was to the Pacific Ocean. Everyone grasps each other's weaknesses, and no one can help anyone. In the future, even if the Mongolian Canal is opened, the Trans-Siberian Railway will be Russia's bargaining chip in our hands. ”

"Xingjian," Yang Rui opened another plan, "This is a water conservancy plan for the entire Northeast, which basically means that the Heilongjiang River and the Songhua River will be connected with the Bohai Sea and the Whale Sea, and grain and coal can be directly transported to all parts of the world without going through the railway." As you heard when I said it just now, the price of water transport is only a quarter of that of the railway, which is still the average price, not the cost price, and it only costs two pounds from Shanghai to London, and if the Black Sea-Caspian Canal can be dug through, then the entire North Garden, all the way to Lake Balkhash, can be connected to the Mediterranean.

Not to mention economic benefits, strategic interests are the most important thing, and whoever wants to encircle us in the future must encircle the entire Asian continent. For this reason, Stalin was asked to agree that the money should be paid no matter how much it was. Go back and think about it, figure out how to raise the money, and don't let the opportunity go to waste. ”

Yang Rui insisted on pushing the canal, Zhang Kun had to reluctantly comply, and then he said: "Sir, Russia can see this if they want to come, will they really agree?" ”

"Success or failure is between five and five." Yang Rui said. "The Russians had a canal from the Volga-Don, but it was just a canal, not a factory. Although it is convenient for goods to leave the country, it is not possible to build machines and cannons, and it is said that it will cost 150 million rubles to build this canal, which is not as good as building a few factories.

With Russia's current five-year plan, once an economic crisis occurs, the prices of timber, oil, and grain will plummet, and the demand for such goods will also drop sharply, and it will be difficult for people to continue the five-year plan even if they starve to death. Not long after Comrade Stalin came up, the opposition parties were still watching in Petersburg, and if something really went wrong, it was the handle of the opponents, and he would have forcefully pushed forward the five-year plan anyway.

At this time, we sent money to the door, not to mention the money from the sale of land, if the Chinese workers were replaced by Russian workers, he would still receive a large amount of foreign exchange, so that his five-year plan could be upgraded immediately. Besides, the canal has passed through the Russian soil, and it is still a handle to say that once we cut off the Trans-Siberian Railway, he will cut off the canal of the Mediterranean, and everyone will be with each other.

Just now I said that the Russians would ask for 300 million Chinese dollars for a big mouth, but if the workers who built the canal were replaced by Russians, they would not open their mouths so much. Russia will be able to receive at least 100 million or 200 million yuan in foreign exchange for the construction of the canal, and if it asks for another 100 million or 200 million, more than half of the funds for the purchase of foreign equipment in the first and second five-year plans will be obtained. ”

Yang Rui said it so surely, Zhang Kun had no choice but to take it seriously. Before leaving, he took both plans with him in order to find a way to meet the project's needs without issuing additional currency. Among them, the difficult thing is the Eurasian Canal plan, and the capital demand for water conservancy projects in Northeast China is less than 100 million. (To be continued.) )