The conflict between China and the United States is irreversible, and whether it will develop into a war depends on the response of the governments of the two countries and the specific international situation at that time. If not, then China will face the sea of aircraft carriers and aircraft, Japan in the east will definitely die, and it is difficult to predict what will happen to China. However, even if there is no war, China and the United States are completely in a competitive relationship economically, and not only will the United States not be able to print US dollars and sell treasury bonds to pay for Chinese products like later generations, but its goods will also compete with Chinese goods in the world market, and of course, if it is fair competition, the results will be self-evident.

If we want not to offend the United States, we must deliberately raise the prices of industrial products or export tariffs to reduce the threat to American goods, which is tantamount to indirectly reducing the scale of industry, and the industrial output value will be suppressed. It is indeed impossible for the Americans to hit Sichuan, Shaanxi, and other places, but once they blockade the coast, foreign trade will be dealt a serious blow; although the Northwest Railway can lead to the Persian Gulf, the Persian Gulf can also be blocked by him, and China's last channel to the outside world is only the Soviet Union, which is not enough. Rubber from the South Seas, industrial raw materials from overseas, and exports of industrial products could hardly be replenished and exported by the domestic and Soviet Unions.

In addition to the competition between industrial products, the world economic crisis of 1929 could not be escaped, and the United States, which was hit hard by it, was bound to become even more hostile to Chinese goods that competed with its industrial products.

In the past, Yang Rui might have thought that the economic crisis was a conspiracy by Jewish bankers, but at this time, in the position of the leader of a country, he can be sure that it is not a conspiracy. The conspiracy is, at best, handled by the self-interest of the bankers and capitalists when a crisis is inevitable. They always have to pass on their losses and take the opportunity to see if there is a chance to make money.

from the First World War. The United States' wanton lending to the Entente bloc in disregard of the Neutrality Act and the rise of Red Russia doomed the world economic crisis to an inevitable one. After World War I, the industrial output of the United States increased from $24 billion to $62 billion, thanks to the pull of the war economy, but the problem was that Britain, France, Italy, and Russia, which had been fighting hard for several years, were unable to pay the more than $10 billion war debt, and the allies, who were even more struggling, could not afford to pay more reparations, so this debt was only a paper number, forever staying in documents and words.

The Russian Revolution and its spread throughout the capitalist world led to strikes in the last year of the war and even after the war. In the face of this situation, the US government will never dare to engage in a soft landing for the economy, and the government will not only maintain the current wage level, but also continue to stimulate the economy to prevent workers from losing their jobs. Britain and France are okay, they have vast colonies to transfer the crisis, France needs to be rebuilt, and the men are basically dead, she only has a lack of labor and no unemployment; And the Sino-Japanese. Because of the solid currency in hand, and the large number of infrastructure and industrial projects, the transformation of the wartime economy is not a problem at all.

But only a hundred thousand people died in the United States, and for the sake of the workers not to strike. The government had to pursue laissez-faire economic policies; At the same time, the Protestants' nature of valuing money as their fate made them refuse to accept the losses caused by the bad debts of Britain, France and Italy. As a result, domestic industrial capacity was seriously overspured by the war. and because the threat of the Bolsheviks would never shrink, it continued to swell in a deformed manner; And abroad. Not only is it demanding repayments from Europe, but it is also raising tariffs aggressively to protect its own market. As a result, European imports are declining, and countries have no money to import American goods under their trade deficits, even if American goods under the Ford model are cheaper than domestic goods.

In this way, the tricks of the Jewish soul in the essence of Protestants began to appear: abroad, generously lending money to countries in order to enable them to buy their own goods; In China, installment payments are vigorously advocated to stimulate people's consumption. If the operation makes the economy hot for a while, speculation is rampant, and it is called a prosperous decade. But in fact, its production capacity is incomparably fat, and the magic trick of changing the left hand for the right hand and coaxing itself will eventually come to an end one day, as evidenced by the GDP data that was cut in half during the historical crisis.

Originally, Roosevelt's set could not stimulate the US economy, which had already landed hard, because the market did not need so much capacity, and the psychology of ten years of overdraft and depression did not dare to consume has kept market demand below the normal level. In such a situation, if there is no war in Europe, then the United States must provoke a war, otherwise it will suffer a violent internal shock, perhaps not a proletarian revolution, but a turmoil of a revolutionary nature.

Historically, it was Japan and Hitler who saved the United States, and the needs of the war not only revitalized the original excess production capacity of the United States, but also destroyed the whole of Europe, and Europe became the handmaiden of the United States from then on. This is just history, in this time and space, with the analysis of the data of the Commercial Intelligence Bureau, the world economic crisis will come sooner because of the rise of China; The postponement of World War I and post-war China's large-scale construction will further stimulate the U.S. economy, making it even more overproductive than it has historically been. The prolongation of the war has also made Europe weaker, and it will not be able to rely on its own market to consume American goods, and at the same time, Chinese goods will continue to export and hit American goods, competing with them for overseas markets, and the ten years of prosperity may be over in eight or nine years.

Once the soap bubble bursts, the situation will be even more miserable than history. In the crisis, not to mention the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression that began in 1937, Japan would have been completely dependent on China for its demand for scrap steel, oil and other American materials, and would not have to import from the United States. And if there had been no Hitler in Europe, and if the European War had not broken out in '39, the US economy would probably have collapsed -- just as Japanese goods had replaced American goods.

Among them, the renewal of the production model is the most important, just as the Ford model replaces manual production in Europe. However, Europe can learn from the American Ford production model, but the United States can hardly learn from today's Chinese production model. Therefore, from an economic point of view, a war between China and the United States is inevitable, just as the United States forced Japan to sign the Plaza Accord in the 80s, demanding that the yen appreciate.

The change of production mode is difficult to stop. When I thought about this again, the three-day Standing Committee had ended, and two solutions were discussed at the meeting for Yang Rui's term: first, as Yang Rui said, he would continue to serve until the end of World War II; The other is that Yang Rui will step down in the next term, and Xu Huafeng or Zhang Taiyan will succeed him as prime minister - only they have enough prestige to hold this post after Yang Rui, and if war is really inevitable, then Yang Rui will replace them before the war and become prime minister again. Which plan to choose will be discussed and decided by the new and expanded Politburo meeting.

Except for Cai Yuanpei, everyone has no opinion on this treatment. In Qiu Jin's words, even if it is a dictatorship, it is a dictatorship agreed to by the plenary session of the Revival Council and a dictatorship approved by the people. At the same time, she believes that everyone here can live to 20 years later, and if Yang Rui does not want to step down, she will also drive him down.

Qiu Jin's appearance of raising her knife and glaring deeply into Yang Rui's heart, she didn't seem to be a person from this world, she was completely the embodiment of chivalry and righteousness. Thinking of Qiu Jin's speech at the meeting, Yang Rui felt funny, because every word Qiu Jin said was serious, every thought was selfless, she was like a child, walking in the jungle full of wild beasts without knowing it, and she was still content.

"I heard that the people really got two cars and were making comparisons." The first day of the new year was a rest day, but the project was tense, Xu Huafeng still came to the back house of Yin'an Palace to report to Yang Rui on the progress of the household electrical project - radio, refrigerator, air conditioner, electric iron, electric kettle, electric oven, etc., some of these products were sold before the war, and now they are just expanding production capacity, and some are new projects.

At this time, there was no specialized industrial designer in China, so many products of state-owned companies would send design drawings and samples to Yang Rui for inspection. After all, he has the experience of modern life, and he fully understands that the refrigerator should have two spaces, freezing and refrigeration, and there must be gadgets such as ice makers; At the same time, he treats this kind of thing as part of his work, and does not charge a penny of design fees and consulting fees, and the major state-owned companies simply treat this place as an advertising agency. This can't help but make Yang Rui have an additional design for his career plan after going into the wilderness, that is, opening an advertising company or management consulting company, which is still very 'money'.

"Hehe, that tease, don't pay attention to him!" Yang Rui laughed, Xu Huafeng's suggestion on the Standing Committee that he make a comparison is really serious, although this tease can't drive, but his son Cai Wuji can drive, so soon he will understand how the Audi car, which costs cheaper than Ford, will kill the Yankees in terms of quality and comfort.

Xu Huafeng didn't understand what teasing meant, he just twisted his beard and asked, "Actually, we and the Americans...... Is it really impossible to avoid? He said that he didn't think that was the case, and then said, "I mean, don't Americans improve their own quality and reduce costs by learning from our qualities?" It's like ......"

"Mr. Hua Feng doesn't have to think about this, it's impossible." Yang Rui also considered this issue, but ultimately decided that it was impossible.

"Why? Throughout the history of American industrial development, he learned a lot of things from Europe, and if he could learn from Europe before, why can't he learn from us now? Afraid of losing face? Xu Hua sealed.

"It's not a matter of face, it's ......" Yang Rui couldn't think of a better word to describe it for a while, so he asked rhetorically: "Mr. Hua Feng, what do you think is the most valuable thing about our production method?" (To be continued......)