Where will the political situation of the thug Bu Heguo go? When the global news media are looking for answers, Pei Chengyi, who is far away from the earth, is also thinking about this question. 【Reading.com】

Although Bae Chengyi is not a politician and has not entered the decision-making circle of the republic, he is a soldier. He understands Wang Yuanqing's situation better than others, because in his opinion, Yuan threw out the "constitutional revision theory" at this time and wanted to complete the last round of reform before leaving office by amending the constitution, which is a "general decisive battle" that must defeat many strong enemies, can only win but cannot be defeated, and there is no second way out. Not only can they more easily understand the news reports of foreign media, but they can also observe the situation in the republic from different perspectives, so as to draw unique conclusions.

In Pei Chengyi's view, "the events of more than a year ago have laid the groundwork for the current situation."

Tracing back to the source, in the late stage of the decisive battle on the Eastern Front in the Indian War, Wang Yuanqing adopted Pei Chengyi's suggestion and made a comprehensive adjustment to the overall war strategy was the root cause of the whole incident. You must know that according to the initial war profits, the war in India can only end in the second half of the year at the earliest, and it may drag on until the end of the year at the latest. Because Wang Yuanqing will not hand over the war to the next national governor, it is impossible for the Indian war to drag on to the year of the blade in any case. If it is carried out according to the initial profit, Wang Yuanqing will hand over the power to Yan Jingyu at the beginning of 2 years, and this catty. The "ideal successor" will continue to promote political reform and use the old year to achieve the grand goal of political reform. Although Pei Chengyi never thought about it carefully, with the situation at that time, if it was Yan Jingyu who came to power, it would definitely be Pei Chengyi who would be the chief of the General Staff.

The reason is very simple, Yan Jingyu was deeply influenced by Wang Yuanqing, not only determined to reform, but also had the courage and courage to promote reform. Of all the necessary factors, Yan Jingyu lacked only support from the army, so he needed a chief of general staff with high prestige in the army and a certain political acumen. No matter from which point of view, Pei Chengyi is the best choice.

Perhaps in the eyes of many people, Pei Chengyi's excellent performance in the Indian war buried his political future, but Pei Chengyi never regretted it, the reason is very simple, Ji Chengyi's ideal is not to become the chief of the General Staff, or rather, not to become the chief of the General Staff at this time.

Winning the war in India within half a year has both advantages and disadvantages.

As the old saying goes, if you want it, you can't reach it.

The formulation of the war plan for about a year is neither a whim of Wang Yuanqing, nor a conjecture made out of nothing by Pei Chengyi, but the result of careful calculations and repeated deductions. In other words, how long the war will last will be determined not only by the strength of the opponent, but also by the strength of the republic. War is not only a struggle on the battlefield, but also a struggle outside the battlefield. It is not difficult for the republic to defeat the Indian army, but how to maintain the post-war situation in India. Conducting a large-scale operation in a year or so is the result of a compromise between the superposition of various factors, and it is also the best choice for various factors to compromise with each other. When Pei Chengyi shortened this time by more than half, although he was able to minimize war casualties and reduce war expenses, it caused many unpredictable and uncontrollable serious consequences in other aspects. Not to mention anything else, the biggest expenditure of the republic in the leap year was aid to India. Although it is impossible to accurately calculate the amount of aid that the Republic invested in India after the war, according to the most conservative estimates, the scale of the Republic's aid to India after the war must have increased more than the initial amount due to insufficient preparations, and the economic losses caused to the Republic were more than one trillion yuan.

In addition to the economic impact, the impact on political reform should not be underestimated.

According to Pei Chengyi's speculation, because post-war spending far exceeded the budget, Wang Yuanqing had to speed up the pace of political reform in order to gain more support from interest groups that supported political reform, especially national capitalists and private enterprise groups. Reform itself is a systematic project, and economics and politics influence each other, so Wang Yuanqing cannot only make a fuss in the economic field. More importantly, political reform has come to this point, and those who are stunned are not only demanding economic benefits, but are also eager to obtain political benefits.

Not to mention that Pei Chengyi is a politically minded soldier, even ordinary soldiers can feel how fierce the domestic struggle is.

Through the "industrial restructuring" initiated by Ji Youguo, the national capitalists and private enterprises of the Republic have risen rapidly, especially after a large number of overseas Chinese and Chinese businessmen such as Lin Yanbo, Li Chengwen, and Ye Yongji returned to China with the wealth accumulated overseas, and the non-governmental economic interest groups have grown rapidly. Although during the reign of Zhao Rundong, the reform of the republic was limited to a state of stagnation, but Zhao Rundong inherited the reform line of Ji Youguo very well, and consolidated the reform achievements of Ji Youguo in the way of "recuperation", so that a large number of private enterprises that were still slightly immature in front of the state-owned enterprises that controlled social and public resources got a valuable opportunity to show their growth, including the "Zhongzhong Group", dozens of private enterprises that entered the ranks of the world's strong enterprises during Wang Yuanqing's administration laid the foundation at this time. By the time Wang Yuanqing began to implement "political reforms," the national capitalists and private entrepreneurs of the republic were no longer pursuing economic interests, but political rights. The problem is that no interest group is willing to give up its interests willingly. From the perspective of Lidaonian, the existing interest groups at that time were definitely not national capitalists and private entrepreneurs, but state-owned enterprises, especially those high-level managers who controlled the national industry and used their public resources and public power to seek Leeds

It is no exaggeration to say that the heart year of political reform is the old year of the struggle of interest groups.

As a soldier, Pei Chengyi knows very well what happened in the old years. When he was the chief of the operations department of the General Staff, Pei Chengyi participated in the basic research work of the Xiaojiu and Xiaokou fighters. Although the development and production of these two fifth-generation fighters were eventually handed over to private enterprises, as far as Pei Chengyi knows, in the bidding stage, several state-owned enterprises not only took the advantage, but also won more lucrative pre-research contracts. If it weren't for the fact that state-owned enterprises were too uncompetitive, it would definitely not be private enterprises that had the last laugh.

Of course, there are not a few individuals involved in the group struggle.

After the war in Japan. Before Pei Chengyi left the General Staff Headquarters for further study, the senior officials of the General Staff who were handed over to the judiciary for sentencing in accordance with the law were past the old people, and at least half of these people were related to the struggle of interests.

As far as Pei Chengyi knows, at least two people were locked up in prison for accepting bribes on the issue of purchasing standing materials for the army.

Anyway. If the domestic struggle gets out of control, there will be only disadvantage and no good.

Before the war in India. The domestic struggle is still under control. No matter how serious the troubles are, they can always be resolved in a way that is high-sounding or acceptable to all stakeholders.

The question is. After the war in India, the domestic struggle became more intense. It's not so easy to solve.

As a matter of fact. Pei Chengyi's abandonment of his candidacy for the post of chief of the General Staff has a lot to do with the excessively fierce domestic struggle.

It's not hard to see why. With Pei Chengyi's personality, he will definitely not take risks without any certainty. After the end of the Indian War, Pei Chengyi can only be sure of one thing, that is, Wang Yuanqing will definitely not seek a third term, and will step down at the beginning of the four. In this way, Pei Chengyi has to think twice about his future. In the absence of Wang Yuanqing as the next head of state, it is very likely that winning over the chief of the general staff is "self-defeating." In Pei Chengyi's view, if the successor is not Yan Jingyu, but Gu Weimin. It is impossible for anyone to achieve such an overstepping achievement as chief of the General Staff. It is even less likely to become the chief of general staff like Peng Maobang. Even at the end of Liwu, Pei Chengyi had enough reason to believe that Wang Yuanqing was very likely to give up his position to Gu Weimin. Let Yan Jingyu take over in five or ten years, hand over the unfinished reform task to Gu Weimin, and let Yan Jingyu lead the republic into a new era in a relatively relaxed environment. In this way, Pei Chengyi has no reason to compete for the position of chief of the general staff. More importantly, in Pei Chengyi's view, if Gu Weimin succeeds him, it is very likely that a serious political struggle will break out in the year of electricity or in the year of metallurgy. In other words, the chief of the General Staff in the year of his stay has experienced this struggle, no matter what political choice he makes. Because the Chief of the General Staff is a military man. Not a politician, so it is quite possible to fall victim to political struggles.

Choosing to equip the office is Pei Chengyi's response.

Leap years. Pei Chengyi has seen a lot and understood a lot.

As with his judgment, although Wang Yuanqing solved many problems, the internal struggle of the republic did not stop. There is even a tendency to intensify. Most of the contradictions point to the same eventual occupation, the handover of power at the beginning of the year.

For more than a year. There is something that Pei Chengyi has never been able to understand.

According to his judgment. If Wang Yuanqing is determined to withdraw from the political arena of the republic in the year of the sword and resolve domestic contradictions, he should adopt a policy of softness instead of continuing his iron-fisted methods. The fact is that Wang Yuanqing did not resolve internal contradictions in a moderate way, but still adhered to his usual principles. Initially, Pei Chengyi also thought that Wang Yuanqing would seek a third term, because he was the only one who remained. to clean up the mess. However, there are many indications that Wang Yuanqing has no idea of becoming the head of the republic for the third time.

Until the day of the flight in February. Pei Chengyi suddenly woke up.

In order to achieve the goal in the safest way, Wang Yuanqing adopted the most unexpected method.

Most importantly. Wang Yuanqing's actions made Pei Chengyi understand one of the most important things, that is, at the beginning of political reform, the republic was actually far from being as strong as it appeared to the outside world, but was riddled with diseases, even if it was not an exaggeration to describe it as "terminally ill and blind".

Figure this out. It is not difficult for Pei Chengyi to think that political reform is also a last resort.

Want to go a little deeper. It is not difficult to understand that Wang Yuanqing made such a big storm before leaving office, and did not leave quietly like Zhao Rundong back then, nor did he leave a rich political legacy for his successor like Ji Youguo, precisely because the internal contradictions of the republic were too sharp and must be resolved as soon as possible. Of course, this also shows that Wang Yuanqing does not fully trust his successor, believing that the next state president will not complete the political reform according to his arrangement.

At this point, Pei Chengyi doesn't have to continue to speculate.

The next state minister must be Gu Weimin, and Wang Yuanqing doesn't trust Gu Weimin very much. As a result, Yan Jingyu will be transferred from premier of the State Council to vice president of the state or chairman of the plenary congress, with Ye Zhisheng as premier of the State Council and Lin Xiaolei as chief of the general staff of the three services.

There is one thing that Pei Chengyi still can't understand, that is, how does Wang Yuanqing ensure that Gu Weimin can hand over the power of the country to Yan Jingyu after the New Year, or after the old year? Although no one denies that Wang Yuanqing already has the influence of the country at that time, and after the old year, Wang Yuanqing is still young enough, and his mouth is according to Pei Chengyi's view, unless he has no choice. Wang Fangqing Kenbao did not see Jin today, and later interfered in national government affairs. In other words, Gu Weimin must be constrained by some kind of system. If Wang Yuanqing thinks long enough, it is even possible to weaken Yuan's power through the system, and fundamentally put an end to the political turmoil caused by the transition of power.

Buenos Aires time flew in the morning, and after watching the news program, Pei Chengyi's doubts were answered.

Wang Yuanqing did think long enough. And it's amazing. If the "Constitutional Amendment" is fully implemented, it will not only be Gu Weimin who will be restricted in the end, but even not only the state yuan, but the political system of the entire republic, and even the most basic political foundation, will undergo earth-shaking changes.

What's more, Pei Chengyi can see at a glance that Wang Yuanqing will definitely have the last laugh.

Perhaps, in the eyes of outsiders, when the "constitutional amendment" was proposed, Wang Yuanqing sounded the clarion call for the general decisive battle of political reform. In Pei Chengyi's eyes, this is a battle that has been planned for a long time, and almost all the advantages are in Wang Yuanqing's hands. Pei Chengyi even believes that Wang Yuanqing was ready for the final battle of political reform more than a year ago, that is, before the outbreak of the war in India.

No matter how many reasons are cited, only one thing is needed to prove Pei Chengyi's judgment: the third military reform.

Recalling the third military reform, Pei Chengyi had to admit that Wang Yuanqing's fighting ability was too amazing.

Although Pei Chengyi did not deny that the main purpose of the third military reform was to reduce military spending and serve the overall strategic transformation of the republic, after seeing the cause and effect. Pei Chengyi must admit that another important purpose of the third military reform is to "clean up the army." Not to mention anything else, through this military reform. Military personnel with a little idea were given "special treatment". For example, Pei Chengyi left the General Staff, Zhang Zhongxian's authority as commander of the Air Force was comprehensively challenged by the new chief of staff of the Air Force, Zhang Weichang, chief of staff of the Navy, was sent to manage the equipment exhibition, and even the little-known Yuan Chenhao was sent to South Asia. Not all of them have been suppressed. In Pei's view, some people are simply "hidden" so as not to fall victim to political struggles. In any case, one thing must be certain, that is, through the internal struggle of the army led by the third military reform, Wang Yuanqing's control over the army reached an unparalleled degree. Although Pei Chengyi knows very well that this state of affairs will not last forever, after all, some substantive issues of military reform have already had an impact on the interests of military personnel. Unless Wang Yuanqing is prepared to abandon the main purpose of military reform, he must adjust his strategy as soon as possible. No longer use military reform as a tool to promote political reform, so as not to cause bad consequences, but Pei Chengyi knows better that at least in the next few months, no one will be able to shake Wang Yuanqing's influence in the army, as long as he has the support of the army and Wang Yuanqing's lofty status in the eyes of the people, no one will be able to obstruct political reform!

Thinking about this truth, Pei Chengyi suddenly felt a lot more relaxed.

There is no doubt that even if the war in India dragged on until the end of the year, or the end of the second half of the year, Wang Yuanqing would have proposed the "constitutional amendment" at the beginning of the year to complete the most crucial and important step of political reform in the most extreme way, and fundamentally ensure the success of political reform.

In fact, even if there is not so much analysis, as long as you understand Wang Yuanqing's character, you know that he will do this.

Anyway, this made Pei Chengyi a lot less burdened by thought.

Of course, as a military adviser stationed abroad, Pei Chengyi has to face many practical problems.

That afternoon, he received a call from the Argentine Minister of Defense. When he arrived at the Argentine Ministry of Defense, it was not the Argentine Minister of Defense who invited him, but Argentine President Serón. Needless to say. Theron must have learned some "insiders" from Alfonso, Teresescu and others, and knew that Pei Chengyi was not a simple soldier, so he wanted to learn some "inside information" from Pei Chengyi. As the head of the country, even if Theron gives Pei Chengyi a lot of face, he has to consider the political impact of this. Therefore, Pei Chengyi was not summoned directly, but met with Pei Chengyi secretly through the Ministry of National Defense.

With the experience of dealing with Alfonso and others, Pei Chengyi seemed extremely easy.

In less than half an hour, Pei Chengyi convinced Theron that there would be no political turmoil in the republic and that there would be no change in basic foreign policy, especially relations with Argentina. In order to let the Argentine president sleep peacefully, Pei Chengyi even hinted to Theron that before Wang Yuanqing left the Yuan Mansion, it was very likely that the basic foreign policy of the republic would be determined by means of legislation, so as to ensure the fundamental interests of the allies.

I have to say that Pei Chengyi has a strong eloquence that is rare among soldiers.

After Therón returned to the presidential palace satisfied, Pei Chengyi also returned to the accommodation arranged for him by the Argentine Ministry of Defense.

That night, Pei Chengyi received a call from Li Cunxun from the other side of the world. Yuan has officially signed a contract for arms sales to Afghanistan. It will be formally submitted to the Military Committee of the Plenary Congress within the month, and the peace treaty will take effect as long as it is approved by the General Assembly. In addition, the list of members of the "military advisory group" has been drawn up, and as long as Pei Chengyi does not object, the first personnel will arrive within a month.

At this point, Pei Chengyi turned his attention to his own work, because according to his agreement with Li Cunxun, this is a signal that the war will explode within the year.